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    Azerbaijan dismisses claims of involvement in Israel-Iran conflict

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    Trump’s Threat of U.S. Intervention in Iran Exposes Roots of Critics’ Fears

    Crisis-Born, Purpose-Seeking: Can the EPC Define Europe’s Strategic Future?

    Serbia’s Request to the ICJ Turned Resolution 1244 into a Closed Chapter and Kosovo’s Independence into an Internationally Recognized Reality

    Unpredictable world

    Promoting Arab Culture and Language in the Framework of Cultural Diversity and Dialogue.

    ‘A Tragic Circus’: Albanian PD Figures Lash Out After LaCivita-Backed Campaign Collapses

    Erosion of Liberal Democracy in Europe Complicates Canada’s Search for Like-Minded Allies

  • Interview

    Exclusive: “Even After Tito – Tito”/ Ambassador Zlatko Kramarić on Authoritarian Legacies and Democracy’s Future in the Balkans

    The Conclusion of the Diplomatic Mission / Ambassador Dancho Markovski: Strengthening Albania-North Macedonia Relations for a Shared European Future

    A Century of Diplomatic Relations Between Albania and Russia: Exclusive Interview with the Russian Ambassador to Albania, H.E. Alexey Zaytsev

    Exclusive/ The chairman of the Freedom Party, Ilir Meta: “The will of the citizens will triumph in Albania, as it did in North Macedonia”

    Exclusive/ The Russian Ambassador to Albania Mr. Mikhail Afanasiev: Russia only aims to end that war started by the West in Ukraine

    Exclusive/ Skopje’s top diplomat to Tirana, Dancho Markovski: OSCE Chairmanship a Project of National Importance for North Macedonia

    Exclusive interview of Croatian Ambassador Zlatko Kramaric: ‘There is progress in Croatian-Albanian relations, but it is still not enough’  

    The first anniversary of the appointment as Archbishop at the head of the Catholic Church/ Mons. Arjan Dodaj: Only God can be the author of our walk!

    Azerbaijan’s Ambassador Anar Huseynov: President Aliyev’s visit to Albania opened a new page in our relations through the specific accords reached

  • Realpolitik

    Summit G 6+1! The historic Summit and Trump show! Zelensky loses 0:2! Winners and losers of the 12 day war!

    Chancellor Merz passed “the exam”! Political stupidity! 5 per cent or study Russian! The Firing East!      

    A top phone call as disappointment! Exit from Brexit! Germany at the helm! End this political shame up!

    That’s it! The quartet of hope! Shame on Kosovo! The Summit of a Community without Identity!

    Only praises and prolises for Meloni! Facts versus untruths! Immediate ceasefire and genuine peace, no deal for new occupation! Back after 60 years !

    US nuclear tariff bomb!! Europa fires back! NATO ok, but with or without Article 5? Kallas urges reforms!

    Europe riarmed! Germany’s epochal shift! Spoiled soup! EU Commissioner Kos demands reforms!

    Europe tightens the ranks! The Euro-Atlantic Alliance in danger! USA-1945!! A true Peace, not new occupation!

    WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 20: President Donald Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office on January 20, 2025 in Washington, DC.  Trump takes office for his second term as the 47th president of the United States. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

    The law of force over the force of law! Multilateral diplomacy is the victim! Euro-Atlantism in danger! Munchen split the West!

  • Current Events

    Forum of Alumni from Saudi Universities in the Balkans

    Why Iran with Nukes is a Danger – Just Look at Cuba in 1962

    When bridges divide more than rivers…

    Skopje Growth Plan Summit: Western Balkans Six Urged to Accelerate Reforms

    Summit G 6+1! The historic Summit and Trump show! Zelensky loses 0:2! Winners and losers of the 12 day war!

    The NATO Summit in 2027 will be held in Tirana.

    Exclusive: “Even After Tito – Tito”/ Ambassador Zlatko Kramarić on Authoritarian Legacies and Democracy’s Future in the Balkans

    Geneva meeting begins in bid to halt escalating Israel-Iran conflict

    From Donetsk to Northern Kosovo: Geopolitical Games with the Kosovo Precedent

  • Top News

    The NATO Summit in 2027 will be held in Tirana.

    NATO allies agree to allocate 5% of GDP to defense by 2035

    Reza Pahlavi: “This Is Our Berlin Wall Moment” — Exiled Prince Calls for Global Support as Iran Nears Regime Collapse

    Where does Donald Trump stand on the Israel-Iran conflict?

    Russia Proposes Second Round of Ukraine Peace Talks in Istanbul on June 2

    International leaders congratulate Prime Minister Rama after his victory in the parliamentary elections, securing a fourth term.

    Albania’s parliamentary elections competitive and well run but lacked level playing field, international observers say

    Top Ukrainian delegation arrives in Paris for talks with Western officials

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After Talks Tackling the War in East Ukraine, What’s Next for the Donbas?

12 December, 2019
in ENGLISH, English OP/ED
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrives to the Elysee Palace, Monday, Dec. 9, 2019 in Paris. The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France meet to try to seek a settlement for the five-year conflict in eastern Ukraine that has killed 13,000 people. (AP Photo/Rafael Yaghobzadeh)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrives to the Elysee Palace, Monday, Dec. 9, 2019 in Paris. The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France meet to try to seek a settlement for the five-year conflict in eastern Ukraine that has killed 13,000 people. (AP Photo/Rafael Yaghobzadeh)

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The leaders of Russia and Ukraine met for the first time in three years in an attempt to end the conflict in eastern Ukriane. In the wake of that meeting earlier this week in Paris, attention now shifts to renewed peace efforts to stem the violence between Ukrainian government forces and Moscow-backed separatists.

Yet in interviews and comments online, analysts warn that while important gestures were made, Russia and Ukraine remain far apart on key aspects of the five-year conflict, which has killed at least 13,000 people, and shows no signs of abating.

One well-accepted view holds that the mere fact that Monday’s Paris talks took place was reason enough for French President Emanuel Macron to smile.

“The fact that we sat side by side today … is an achievement,” Macron told reporters.    

The French leader, with backing from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, has been the driving force behind renewed European efforts to persuade Ukraine and Russia to return to the negotiating table.

“Macron showed that Paris is ready to play a bigger role in European politics,” Alexey Pushkov, a Kremlin ally and former member of Russia’s Federation Council, wrote in a tweet that praised the meeting.

Left unmentioned? Macron is also seen by Kremlin allies as a rare and recent European voice pushing for renewed detente with Moscow.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and  Russia's…
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin attend a joint news conference after a summit in Paris, Dec. 9, 2019.

Zelenskiy vs. Putin

The highest stakes going into the talks, however, belonged to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Analysts wondered how Zelenskiy, a 41-year-old comedy actor elected to the presidency in a stunning landslide victory earlier this year, would fare against a far more seasoned opponent in Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Indeed, in advance of the summit, crowds gathered in Kyiv warning Zelenskiy against appeasing the Kremlin. Protesters held signs saying, “No Capitulation” and “No Red Lines.”

The Ukrainian leader seemed to receive the message.

“I felt the whole of the Ukrainian nation with me,” Zelenskiy said during a press conference following the talks. “I’m here representing all Ukrainians.”

Analysts said Zelenskiy held his own, with neither Russia nor Ukraine gaining the edge in negotiations, which bore signs of a thaw in relations, yet no overt breakthroughs.

“Everyone believed that Putin would be able to prevail over Zelenskiy, that Zelenskiy is no competitor to him,” Konstantin Skorkin, a Ukraine specialist at the Carnegie Moscow Center, told VOA.

“But the reality showed that they could talk to each other and their previous telephone communications led to some progress in the peace effort,” Skorkin said.

“I think it would be appropriate to be diplomatic as we’ve just started talking. Let’s say for now it’s a draw,” Zelenskiy said to journalists.

Putin, more sanguine, allowed that a spate of recent diplomatic initiatives signaled a “warming” in relations.

“All this gives us the grounds to suppose that the process is developing in the right direction,” the Russian president said.

For all the diplomatic pleasantries, neither leader appeared to acknowledge the other in public.

Results not talk

For now, the Paris talks yielded the promise of a cease-fire, despite what Russia and Ukraine acknowledge were several previous failed attempts to stop the fighting.

The warring parties will take “immediate measures to stabilize the situation in the conflict area,” according to a signed communique.

Equally pressing? An agreement for a mass prisoner swap with the rebels before year’s end.

Beyond a gesture of goodwill to unite families ahead of New Year’s, the measure builds on a widely heralded prisoner exchange negotiated between Putin and Zelenskiy in September.  

Putin also hinted at a deal to transit discounted Russian gas to, and through, Ukraine to Europe.

French President Emmanuel Macron, second left, Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy gather for talks at the Elysee Palace, in Paris, France, Dec. 9, 2019.
French President Emmanuel Macron, second left, Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy gather for talks at the Elysee Palace, in Paris, France, Dec. 9, 2019.

There was wide agreement, however, that the Paris talks brought little progress to the core issue of the war: the future of the Donbas region in east Ukraine, and the status of two unrecognized “independent republics” in Donetsk and Luhansk.

Prisoner exchanges and other compromises are “peripheral to the conflict, and don’t go to the heart of the matter – the heart being the status of the Donbas,” wrote Tatiana Stanovaya of Reality of Russian Politics in a Facebook post assessing the Paris negotiations.

“Both sides are confident that they are right and they are not going to retreat. It doesn’t matter who’s right or wrong,” Shorkin, of the Carnegie Moscow Center, told VOA.

“Each side is sticking to their position. No one is willing to back down,” he said.

Zelenskiy said Kyiv still wants to reestablish full control over Luhansk and Donetsk, the two self-proclaimed independent republics.

Putin also is insisting Ukraine adhere to promises under the so-called Minsk Agreements negotiated under Zelenskiy’s predecessor, Petro Poroshenko.

The Minsk accords, negotiated in 2015 and 2016 with European backing, allow for increased autonomy in the separatists regions, as well as direct talks with the rebels as a precursor to Russia handing over control of the Ukraine-Russian border to Kyiv.

East vs. West

Many in Kyiv argue the Minsk accords give Moscow undue influence over their ambitions to join the European Union and, perhaps, one day NATO.

In Russia, the battle over Ukraine is widely seen as part of the Kremlin’s insistence that Ukraine serve as a buffer state against the alliance’s expansion east toward Russia’s border.  

Analysts argue the Minsk agreements also portray Russia  as a mediator in the conflict, masking its role as the separatists’ key backer, providing money, soldiers and weapons, facts well documented by independent journalists on the ground.  

“Everyone perfectly realizes who these leaders in Luhansk and Donetsk are,” Moscow-based political analyst Yuliy Nesnevich told VOA.

“What is the point to come to an agreement with them when it’s clear who really stands behind them? When it’s clear who is the puppet master?” Nesnevich said.  

Going forward, the diplomatic calendar is clear.

The so-called Normandy Format quartet of nations reconvenes in four months in Berlin.

Its mission is to assess the Paris agreements and revisit what are seemingly incompatible positions between Moscow and Kyiv.  

Whatever progress the parties make may determine the Donbas’ last chance at seeing something resembling peace, analysts said.

Withdrawal from negotiations has “no broad support,” Carnegie’s Skorkin said. But the alternative is far messier, he said./voa

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