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    The world goes on as usual – unpredictably

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    Elite Purges: Internal Conflict or External Design?

    Trump’s Threat of U.S. Intervention in Iran Exposes Roots of Critics’ Fears

    Crisis-Born, Purpose-Seeking: Can the EPC Define Europe’s Strategic Future?

    Serbia’s Request to the ICJ Turned Resolution 1244 into a Closed Chapter and Kosovo’s Independence into an Internationally Recognized Reality

    Unpredictable world

    Promoting Arab Culture and Language in the Framework of Cultural Diversity and Dialogue.

  • Interview

    “Diplomacy, Not War”: Palestinian Ambassador to Albania Calls for Justice, Peace, and Global Action for Gaza

    Exclusive: “Even After Tito – Tito”/ Ambassador Zlatko Kramarić on Authoritarian Legacies and Democracy’s Future in the Balkans

    The Conclusion of the Diplomatic Mission / Ambassador Dancho Markovski: Strengthening Albania-North Macedonia Relations for a Shared European Future

    A Century of Diplomatic Relations Between Albania and Russia: Exclusive Interview with the Russian Ambassador to Albania, H.E. Alexey Zaytsev

    Exclusive/ The chairman of the Freedom Party, Ilir Meta: “The will of the citizens will triumph in Albania, as it did in North Macedonia”

    Exclusive/ The Russian Ambassador to Albania Mr. Mikhail Afanasiev: Russia only aims to end that war started by the West in Ukraine

    Exclusive/ Skopje’s top diplomat to Tirana, Dancho Markovski: OSCE Chairmanship a Project of National Importance for North Macedonia

    Exclusive interview of Croatian Ambassador Zlatko Kramaric: ‘There is progress in Croatian-Albanian relations, but it is still not enough’  

    The first anniversary of the appointment as Archbishop at the head of the Catholic Church/ Mons. Arjan Dodaj: Only God can be the author of our walk!

  • Realpolitik

    Alaska, a bell toll for Europe! No trade partners but adversaries! Palestina and the two states solution! When Pristina drowns in a spoonful of water!

    Geopolitical equation with several unknowns!

    Summit G 6+1! The historic Summit and Trump show! Zelensky loses 0:2! Winners and losers of the 12 day war!

    Chancellor Merz passed “the exam”! Political stupidity! 5 per cent or study Russian! The Firing East!      

    A top phone call as disappointment! Exit from Brexit! Germany at the helm! End this political shame up!

    That’s it! The quartet of hope! Shame on Kosovo! The Summit of a Community without Identity!

    Only praises and prolises for Meloni! Facts versus untruths! Immediate ceasefire and genuine peace, no deal for new occupation! Back after 60 years !

    US nuclear tariff bomb!! Europa fires back! NATO ok, but with or without Article 5? Kallas urges reforms!

    Europe riarmed! Germany’s epochal shift! Spoiled soup! EU Commissioner Kos demands reforms!

  • Current Events

    “Council of Albanian Ambassadors condemns Gaza operation, calls for two-state solution”

    Alaska, a bell toll for Europe! No trade partners but adversaries! Palestina and the two states solution! When Pristina drowns in a spoonful of water!

    The Americans In, the Russians Down, and the Iranians Out: The Regional Impact of the Armenia- Azerbaijan Peace Agreement

    How Belgrade Keeps the Serb Community in Kosovo Under Political Control

    President Aliyev gives an interview to Azerbaijani media: US-Azerbaijan open new chapter of strategic partnership 

    International recognition of Palestine: Political marketing or genuine change?

    Visit to the Council of American Ambassadors Headquarters.

    “This Is Genocide”: Albanian Journalists Call for Urgent Government Action for Gaza

    Kremlin says Azerbaijan, Russia have entered ‘difficult period’ in bilateral ties

  • Top News

    “Council of Albanian Ambassadors condemns Gaza operation, calls for two-state solution”

    Zelensky in Brussels: A ceasefire and clear security guarantees are needed for Ukraine

    Visit to the Council of American Ambassadors Headquarters.

    China looks forward to Europe viewing bilateral ties in a comprehensive, dialectical, and developing manner: Chinese FM spokesperson

    The NATO Summit in 2027 will be held in Tirana.

    NATO allies agree to allocate 5% of GDP to defense by 2035

    Reza Pahlavi: “This Is Our Berlin Wall Moment” — Exiled Prince Calls for Global Support as Iran Nears Regime Collapse

    Where does Donald Trump stand on the Israel-Iran conflict?

    Russia Proposes Second Round of Ukraine Peace Talks in Istanbul on June 2

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Putin undermined diplomacy! The Force of law over the Law of force! 10 geopolitical miscalculations!

3 March, 2022
in ENGLISH, English Realpolitik
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Realpolitik “ flash” No. 18 

 17 FEBRUARY  – 3 March  2022

  EXCLUSIVELY at ARGUMENTUM,

DR. JORGJI KOTE, a renowned diplomatic analyst, “  dots the i’s and crosses the t’s” on the major events related to the Russian aggression against Ukraine in only 1000 words

  1. Putin undermined the largest preventive diplomacy of the Western Alliance in the last 30 years! There remained no leader and Foreign Minister of the bigest powers without going to Moscow, talking at length and calling President  Putin/FM Lavrov, apart from several forums/summits. It was undoubtedly among the rarest examples of the “ crisis, shuttle and phone diplomacy” until the last minute. Unfortunately, Putin ignored them. For the first time after 1991 Russia was not represented in the prestigious international Security Confeence in Munich on 20 February. Preventive diplomacy failed, because it was undermined by Russia. For, there can be no diplomacy on earth that can be successful when the will from ther side is lacking. Or when the latter uses diplomacy just to “wash the mouth” as a “ fig leaf”  or to gain time and hide the real intentions.
  2. The Force of the law above the  Law of the force is on the top of the  agenda of international relations. In the last 75 years, thanks to the establishment of its multilateral system, with UN at the head and other important organizations, the use of force which has prevailed in the periods of the balance of powers until he World War II came almost to an end; when the strongest used his political, economic and military force against the weaker, violating international regulatins and law. Lack of peace, security and bloody conflicts had their source exactly in the abuse with the use of force by bigger states; however, the balances of power change continuously, endangering  any prospect of peace and prosperity. Therefore, in the last 75 years it is international law that is applied, resolving  disagreements and conflicts in a peaceful way, through diplomatic channels and international courts, but not through violence and arms.

The force of international law is safeguarded by the UN Charter, a number of well-known international treaties and conventions, which ensure the sovereignty and territorial integrity of each state, human rights and and fundamental freedoms and others. Russia claims without any reliable basis that the West has violated international law with its military interventions in Kosovo, Lybia, Siria, Iraq and elswhere.  Although the situation in Ukraine cannot be compared at all with those countries and Kosovo, in particular, where there was genocice and crimes against humanity committted,  Russia, moreover as a permanent member of the UN Security Council could very well  have lodged its complaints in the proper international fora and institutions against alleged violators but not violate international law. For the sake of truth, Russia has been very selective in terms of international law, referring to when it was beneficial and ignoring it when it spoils its “ geo- political mood”.

  1. 10 geopolitical miscalculations with catastrophic costs for Ukraine, Europe and Russia were made by Putin. Both at home  and abroad, for today and tomorrow. His mistakes remind us of Bonaparte, who after the invasion of Spain was trying to justify himself saying that after all he had not committed any crime; but the great Tallerand gave him with great concern the emblematic answer “ No, Your Majesty, it is even worse, you have committed a mistake”.  

As President Biden spoke with pathos in his speech on the State to Nation on 1st of March “ Putin miscalculated badly, he does not know what’s coming, he was wrong,  we are ready, we are united”

Putin’s mistakes start with his unrealistic and exaggerated belief  related to the rifts, problems and lack of cohesion on various aspects within the Western Alliance, also an effet of several crisis which it has gone through. Nevertheless, one who knows the Western history may quickly realize that albeit debates and divisions, as democratic states and organizations due also to the clash of interests, when it comes to protect the fundamental values and principles,  the West comes together; moreover, the crisis make them even stronger, which is also case now. Both NATO and the EU have made epochal moves and actions which were unthinkable only a few months ago.

The next miscalculation is the underestimation of the extent of sanctions, thinking that Moscow could withstand them as hitherto. However, Putin  did not think it well that the sanctions this time would be so tough that very soon they would work havoc on Russia. He has not even taken account of their large unprecedented variety, in every area, including the restrictions/exemption from the international payment system “SWIFT ” which is considered as a “financial atom bomb” The other mistake is the under-estimation of the tremendous international solidarity and the staunch support by the western institutions to Ukraine; in all forms – clothes, foods, shelter, up to billions of financial aids and others.

The next mistake was the rushed assessment of the stances and expectations from some big states, as Germany, with many “ Putin Verstehers” or Russian lobbying. But, on  27 February, Bundestag made a “ revolution” in the German foreign policy, breaking away with pacifism; it decided historically to deliver weapons to Ukraine and double its defence capacities. Most importantly, Berlin gave up the operation of the gigandic “ Nord Stream” with Russia.

Then, Putin underrated the immense moral and military might of the brave Ukrainian people, who is displaying its best against the worst.  Putin forgot that Ukraine 2022 has advanced a lot compared to 2014 also in the military field. The Russian military “Blitz” in Ukraine  failed and despite the further dinamics of the events, Russia will find it extremely hard even in this aspect; as to the moral, political, public aspect and image, they are down on the ground! The 141 votes in the UN General Assembly in favour of Putin’s indictment by the International Criminal Court is the latest solid proof of his multi-faceted condemnation. Besides, even the assessment of the response from the Russian people by at large may be  erroneous following the inter-actions of the above-mentioned acors/factors. The other grave mistake is the over-estimation of the force and armament of the Russian army. Actually, its moral and motivation cannot be high, since there is no clear reason for the war there. Finally, Putin and Lavrov make a mistake by mentioning the atom/nuclear weapons. Attention, do not “ play with them”  because the USA, France and UK do also possess them.

/Argumentum.al

© 2022 Argumentum

Tags: Jorgji Koteputirussiaukriane

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