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    The world goes on as usual – unpredictably

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    Elite Purges: Internal Conflict or External Design?

    Trump’s Threat of U.S. Intervention in Iran Exposes Roots of Critics’ Fears

    Crisis-Born, Purpose-Seeking: Can the EPC Define Europe’s Strategic Future?

    Serbia’s Request to the ICJ Turned Resolution 1244 into a Closed Chapter and Kosovo’s Independence into an Internationally Recognized Reality

    Unpredictable world

    Promoting Arab Culture and Language in the Framework of Cultural Diversity and Dialogue.

  • Interview

    “Diplomacy, Not War”: Palestinian Ambassador to Albania Calls for Justice, Peace, and Global Action for Gaza

    Exclusive: “Even After Tito – Tito”/ Ambassador Zlatko Kramarić on Authoritarian Legacies and Democracy’s Future in the Balkans

    The Conclusion of the Diplomatic Mission / Ambassador Dancho Markovski: Strengthening Albania-North Macedonia Relations for a Shared European Future

    A Century of Diplomatic Relations Between Albania and Russia: Exclusive Interview with the Russian Ambassador to Albania, H.E. Alexey Zaytsev

    Exclusive/ The chairman of the Freedom Party, Ilir Meta: “The will of the citizens will triumph in Albania, as it did in North Macedonia”

    Exclusive/ The Russian Ambassador to Albania Mr. Mikhail Afanasiev: Russia only aims to end that war started by the West in Ukraine

    Exclusive/ Skopje’s top diplomat to Tirana, Dancho Markovski: OSCE Chairmanship a Project of National Importance for North Macedonia

    Exclusive interview of Croatian Ambassador Zlatko Kramaric: ‘There is progress in Croatian-Albanian relations, but it is still not enough’  

    The first anniversary of the appointment as Archbishop at the head of the Catholic Church/ Mons. Arjan Dodaj: Only God can be the author of our walk!

  • Realpolitik

    Alaska, a bell toll for Europe! No trade partners but adversaries! Palestina and the two states solution! When Pristina drowns in a spoonful of water!

    Geopolitical equation with several unknowns!

    Summit G 6+1! The historic Summit and Trump show! Zelensky loses 0:2! Winners and losers of the 12 day war!

    Chancellor Merz passed “the exam”! Political stupidity! 5 per cent or study Russian! The Firing East!      

    A top phone call as disappointment! Exit from Brexit! Germany at the helm! End this political shame up!

    That’s it! The quartet of hope! Shame on Kosovo! The Summit of a Community without Identity!

    Only praises and prolises for Meloni! Facts versus untruths! Immediate ceasefire and genuine peace, no deal for new occupation! Back after 60 years !

    US nuclear tariff bomb!! Europa fires back! NATO ok, but with or without Article 5? Kallas urges reforms!

    Europe riarmed! Germany’s epochal shift! Spoiled soup! EU Commissioner Kos demands reforms!

  • Current Events

    “Council of Albanian Ambassadors condemns Gaza operation, calls for two-state solution”

    Alaska, a bell toll for Europe! No trade partners but adversaries! Palestina and the two states solution! When Pristina drowns in a spoonful of water!

    The Americans In, the Russians Down, and the Iranians Out: The Regional Impact of the Armenia- Azerbaijan Peace Agreement

    How Belgrade Keeps the Serb Community in Kosovo Under Political Control

    President Aliyev gives an interview to Azerbaijani media: US-Azerbaijan open new chapter of strategic partnership 

    International recognition of Palestine: Political marketing or genuine change?

    Visit to the Council of American Ambassadors Headquarters.

    “This Is Genocide”: Albanian Journalists Call for Urgent Government Action for Gaza

    Kremlin says Azerbaijan, Russia have entered ‘difficult period’ in bilateral ties

  • Top News

    “Council of Albanian Ambassadors condemns Gaza operation, calls for two-state solution”

    Zelensky in Brussels: A ceasefire and clear security guarantees are needed for Ukraine

    Visit to the Council of American Ambassadors Headquarters.

    China looks forward to Europe viewing bilateral ties in a comprehensive, dialectical, and developing manner: Chinese FM spokesperson

    The NATO Summit in 2027 will be held in Tirana.

    NATO allies agree to allocate 5% of GDP to defense by 2035

    Reza Pahlavi: “This Is Our Berlin Wall Moment” — Exiled Prince Calls for Global Support as Iran Nears Regime Collapse

    Where does Donald Trump stand on the Israel-Iran conflict?

    Russia Proposes Second Round of Ukraine Peace Talks in Istanbul on June 2

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Sweden/Spain without sensations! Croatia in Schengen! They come and go, but dialogue No! 3 “pumpkins under an armpit” Trumpism “wounded” in Washington and in Brasil!

Realpolitik “ Flash” No. 38  ;  2 – 16 JANUARY 2023

16 January, 2023
in ENGLISH, English Realpolitik
A A
Detail of the national flag of Sweden waving in the wind with blurred european union flag in the background on a clear day. Democracy and politics. European country. Selective focus.

Detail of the national flag of Sweden waving in the wind with blurred european union flag in the background on a clear day. Democracy and politics. European country. Selective focus.

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EKSKLUSIVELY FOR “ARGUMENTUM“

The renowed diplomatic analyst, Dr. Jorgji KOTE “ dots the “i”s and crosses the “ ts” on 5 major  events in only 1000 words.

1.Sweden/Spain without sensations! This is the expectation from the  Swedish/Spannish Presidency in the first and second half 2023. As we  mentioned in the previous issue, the Czech Presidency achieved all its goals, which do also extend to this year, including, in particular, Western Balkans. Thus, no other sensational achievement is envisaged from these two presidencies, apart from the continuation of the work to date by the EU. Naturally, the Russian agression in Ukraine with its multiple negative effects will continue to be at the center of attention, alongside other political and economic measures aimed at avoiding other consequences. Certainly, the Second Summit of the New European Politial Community ( EPC) in Moldova this spring wil be a political and diplomatic highlight, due to be focussed on relevant specifications concerning the character and its objectives, which still remain  ambigious. Likewise, the “ ball” in Western Balkans will be played in our courts. Tirana and Skopja will continue with the scanning period until the real beginning of negociations, hopefully by 1 January 2024. Besides, Skopja has to make the necessary constitutional amendments in order to lift the Bulgarian veto; with Kosovo, the visa liberalization is expected to be taken with the relevant technical formalities, since the political decision was already taken. Bosnia – Hergovina will proceed with the relevant procedures, as a EU candidate with many “ home works”. The most worrying problem remains the dialogue Belgrade – Pristina, but it overpasses the borders of the Swedish/Spannish Presidency.

This is why, unlike the French and the Czech Presidency, the Swedish and the Spanish one will not have any special aspect, except for the routine, certainly if no  surprise occurs during this year.

2.“3 Pumpkins under a single armpit and not just two” as the Albanian says go ( keep a finger in everything) will try to hold this year Northern Macedonia; it will chair the Adriatic Charter Initiative, OSCE in period of serious challenges, and the amendments to its Constitution for the implementation of the deal with Sofia, in order to pave the way to the opening of negotiations with the EU. A hard nut to crack for the political leadership in Skopje, given also the difficult political situation there and  opposition demands for early elections. The most difficult are the constitutional amendments, since both the Adriatic Charter and OSCE are largely diplomatic formalities and procedures, without any public interest and impact.

Because OSCE is not the one of 20 years ago, its role and weight has considerably declined; the establishment of the EPC may be also seen as a sort of substitute for OSCE, now that Russia has trampled underfoot its rules ansd principles.

3.“ They come and go, but dialogue No!! This is happening with the dialogue Pristina – Belgrade, a genuine odysée; much fuss, words, promises, the “shuttle diplomacy” from Brussels, Washington, Berlin, Paris to Belgrade and Pristina, with appeals for dialogue, but with no dialogue to be seen. Only separate monologues. With predictions and promises for a Final Agreement on Normalisation by March. What a wishful thinking” attitude! When not the tongue used in Belgrade but especially the state of play on the ground up there promises only loggerheads and disaccords, threats, pressures, showdowns. Serbia continues to show no sign of distancing itself from its criminal past, no sign of approachment towards Kosovo’s recognition, 15 years after its independence and with a great zeal towards de-recognition campaigns! President Vuçiç declared again after meeting Mr. Chollet, Senior Advisor of US State Department that he would say 500 times that they will not recognize Kosovo!

Yet, the USA and the EU continue to “ pet” Belgrade and hold it in much more favourable terms, accepting on behalf of stability even less than recognition for Kosovo! So, nothing remains for us but to pray “ Inshallah”, since “ they come and go, but dialogue NO!

 4.Croatia in Schengen! On 1 January, the EU “Schengen” was enlarged with Croatia’s accession to this huge area of freedom. A genuine historic political, economic and diplomatic victory for Croatia; it has become indeed a reference point also for our EU integration. Actually, it has always been on the front rows of Euro-Atlantic integration. Croatia ended in a record- breaking time accession negotiations within 4 years in 2008; its full- membership was delayed for 5 years only  due to the Slovenian blockade.

This year it celebrates the Tenth Anniversary in the EU. A glamorous success on this jubilee! Whereas we boast that the EU organized for the first time a Summit in Tirana, 13 years after our application for EU membership, Croatia has held several such summits, much much earlier and without pump and glamour!

5.Trumpism “ wounded” in Washington and in Brasil! True, after losing the Senate and the failure of the “ red wave” in the Congress, where it gained a very slim victory,  Trump and the Republicans had another political  slap in their face last week  in the Chamber. Their new Congress Speaker, Kevin Mc Carthy was elected only after 15 rounds of heated debates. But even this occurred after many concessions to its opponents within the Party, which could weaken its leadership and the positions of the Republicans by and large in the decision – making process. Trump suffered the next drawback  in Brasil, where “ his political brother” Bolsonaro lost against socialist Lula. The latter came for the third time in power, as if to prove the proverb “ The third is lucky”! Just a week after Lula’s inauguration, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters stormed and raided the Parliament and other top level institutions. A bad imitation of the storm on 6th of January in Capitol Hill in Washington, conveying a bad image for Brasil’s democracy at its very heart!

It was rightessly condemned by all political sides in USA and Europe, but not from Trump himself. Only 20 per cent of Brasil’s population support this rebellion against a democratically elected government. These are painful losses for Trump and his candidacy in the next presidential elections 2024. However, there is room and time to  draw lessons, since everything  depends on the performance of the democrats in USA and President Lula in Brasil in the next two years.

 

/Argumentum.al

© 2023 Argumentum

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