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    The world goes on as usual – unpredictably

    Palestine is decisive for peace in Middle East!

    Azerbaijan dismisses claims of involvement in Israel-Iran conflict

    Elite Purges: Internal Conflict or External Design?

    Trump’s Threat of U.S. Intervention in Iran Exposes Roots of Critics’ Fears

    Crisis-Born, Purpose-Seeking: Can the EPC Define Europe’s Strategic Future?

    Serbia’s Request to the ICJ Turned Resolution 1244 into a Closed Chapter and Kosovo’s Independence into an Internationally Recognized Reality

    Unpredictable world

    Promoting Arab Culture and Language in the Framework of Cultural Diversity and Dialogue.

  • Interview

    “Diplomacy, Not War”: Palestinian Ambassador to Albania Calls for Justice, Peace, and Global Action for Gaza

    Exclusive: “Even After Tito – Tito”/ Ambassador Zlatko Kramarić on Authoritarian Legacies and Democracy’s Future in the Balkans

    The Conclusion of the Diplomatic Mission / Ambassador Dancho Markovski: Strengthening Albania-North Macedonia Relations for a Shared European Future

    A Century of Diplomatic Relations Between Albania and Russia: Exclusive Interview with the Russian Ambassador to Albania, H.E. Alexey Zaytsev

    Exclusive/ The chairman of the Freedom Party, Ilir Meta: “The will of the citizens will triumph in Albania, as it did in North Macedonia”

    Exclusive/ The Russian Ambassador to Albania Mr. Mikhail Afanasiev: Russia only aims to end that war started by the West in Ukraine

    Exclusive/ Skopje’s top diplomat to Tirana, Dancho Markovski: OSCE Chairmanship a Project of National Importance for North Macedonia

    Exclusive interview of Croatian Ambassador Zlatko Kramaric: ‘There is progress in Croatian-Albanian relations, but it is still not enough’  

    The first anniversary of the appointment as Archbishop at the head of the Catholic Church/ Mons. Arjan Dodaj: Only God can be the author of our walk!

  • Realpolitik

    Alaska, a bell toll for Europe! No trade partners but adversaries! Palestina and the two states solution! When Pristina drowns in a spoonful of water!

    Geopolitical equation with several unknowns!

    Summit G 6+1! The historic Summit and Trump show! Zelensky loses 0:2! Winners and losers of the 12 day war!

    Chancellor Merz passed “the exam”! Political stupidity! 5 per cent or study Russian! The Firing East!      

    A top phone call as disappointment! Exit from Brexit! Germany at the helm! End this political shame up!

    That’s it! The quartet of hope! Shame on Kosovo! The Summit of a Community without Identity!

    Only praises and prolises for Meloni! Facts versus untruths! Immediate ceasefire and genuine peace, no deal for new occupation! Back after 60 years !

    US nuclear tariff bomb!! Europa fires back! NATO ok, but with or without Article 5? Kallas urges reforms!

    Europe riarmed! Germany’s epochal shift! Spoiled soup! EU Commissioner Kos demands reforms!

  • Current Events

    “Council of Albanian Ambassadors condemns Gaza operation, calls for two-state solution”

    Alaska, a bell toll for Europe! No trade partners but adversaries! Palestina and the two states solution! When Pristina drowns in a spoonful of water!

    The Americans In, the Russians Down, and the Iranians Out: The Regional Impact of the Armenia- Azerbaijan Peace Agreement

    How Belgrade Keeps the Serb Community in Kosovo Under Political Control

    President Aliyev gives an interview to Azerbaijani media: US-Azerbaijan open new chapter of strategic partnership 

    International recognition of Palestine: Political marketing or genuine change?

    Visit to the Council of American Ambassadors Headquarters.

    “This Is Genocide”: Albanian Journalists Call for Urgent Government Action for Gaza

    Kremlin says Azerbaijan, Russia have entered ‘difficult period’ in bilateral ties

  • Top News

    “Council of Albanian Ambassadors condemns Gaza operation, calls for two-state solution”

    Zelensky in Brussels: A ceasefire and clear security guarantees are needed for Ukraine

    Visit to the Council of American Ambassadors Headquarters.

    China looks forward to Europe viewing bilateral ties in a comprehensive, dialectical, and developing manner: Chinese FM spokesperson

    The NATO Summit in 2027 will be held in Tirana.

    NATO allies agree to allocate 5% of GDP to defense by 2035

    Reza Pahlavi: “This Is Our Berlin Wall Moment” — Exiled Prince Calls for Global Support as Iran Nears Regime Collapse

    Where does Donald Trump stand on the Israel-Iran conflict?

    Russia Proposes Second Round of Ukraine Peace Talks in Istanbul on June 2

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  • Home
  • OP/ED

    The world goes on as usual – unpredictably

    Palestine is decisive for peace in Middle East!

    Azerbaijan dismisses claims of involvement in Israel-Iran conflict

    Elite Purges: Internal Conflict or External Design?

    Trump’s Threat of U.S. Intervention in Iran Exposes Roots of Critics’ Fears

    Crisis-Born, Purpose-Seeking: Can the EPC Define Europe’s Strategic Future?

    Serbia’s Request to the ICJ Turned Resolution 1244 into a Closed Chapter and Kosovo’s Independence into an Internationally Recognized Reality

    Unpredictable world

    Promoting Arab Culture and Language in the Framework of Cultural Diversity and Dialogue.

  • Interview

    “Diplomacy, Not War”: Palestinian Ambassador to Albania Calls for Justice, Peace, and Global Action for Gaza

    Exclusive: “Even After Tito – Tito”/ Ambassador Zlatko Kramarić on Authoritarian Legacies and Democracy’s Future in the Balkans

    The Conclusion of the Diplomatic Mission / Ambassador Dancho Markovski: Strengthening Albania-North Macedonia Relations for a Shared European Future

    A Century of Diplomatic Relations Between Albania and Russia: Exclusive Interview with the Russian Ambassador to Albania, H.E. Alexey Zaytsev

    Exclusive/ The chairman of the Freedom Party, Ilir Meta: “The will of the citizens will triumph in Albania, as it did in North Macedonia”

    Exclusive/ The Russian Ambassador to Albania Mr. Mikhail Afanasiev: Russia only aims to end that war started by the West in Ukraine

    Exclusive/ Skopje’s top diplomat to Tirana, Dancho Markovski: OSCE Chairmanship a Project of National Importance for North Macedonia

    Exclusive interview of Croatian Ambassador Zlatko Kramaric: ‘There is progress in Croatian-Albanian relations, but it is still not enough’  

    The first anniversary of the appointment as Archbishop at the head of the Catholic Church/ Mons. Arjan Dodaj: Only God can be the author of our walk!

  • Realpolitik

    Alaska, a bell toll for Europe! No trade partners but adversaries! Palestina and the two states solution! When Pristina drowns in a spoonful of water!

    Geopolitical equation with several unknowns!

    Summit G 6+1! The historic Summit and Trump show! Zelensky loses 0:2! Winners and losers of the 12 day war!

    Chancellor Merz passed “the exam”! Political stupidity! 5 per cent or study Russian! The Firing East!      

    A top phone call as disappointment! Exit from Brexit! Germany at the helm! End this political shame up!

    That’s it! The quartet of hope! Shame on Kosovo! The Summit of a Community without Identity!

    Only praises and prolises for Meloni! Facts versus untruths! Immediate ceasefire and genuine peace, no deal for new occupation! Back after 60 years !

    US nuclear tariff bomb!! Europa fires back! NATO ok, but with or without Article 5? Kallas urges reforms!

    Europe riarmed! Germany’s epochal shift! Spoiled soup! EU Commissioner Kos demands reforms!

  • Current Events

    “Council of Albanian Ambassadors condemns Gaza operation, calls for two-state solution”

    Alaska, a bell toll for Europe! No trade partners but adversaries! Palestina and the two states solution! When Pristina drowns in a spoonful of water!

    The Americans In, the Russians Down, and the Iranians Out: The Regional Impact of the Armenia- Azerbaijan Peace Agreement

    How Belgrade Keeps the Serb Community in Kosovo Under Political Control

    President Aliyev gives an interview to Azerbaijani media: US-Azerbaijan open new chapter of strategic partnership 

    International recognition of Palestine: Political marketing or genuine change?

    Visit to the Council of American Ambassadors Headquarters.

    “This Is Genocide”: Albanian Journalists Call for Urgent Government Action for Gaza

    Kremlin says Azerbaijan, Russia have entered ‘difficult period’ in bilateral ties

  • Top News

    “Council of Albanian Ambassadors condemns Gaza operation, calls for two-state solution”

    Zelensky in Brussels: A ceasefire and clear security guarantees are needed for Ukraine

    Visit to the Council of American Ambassadors Headquarters.

    China looks forward to Europe viewing bilateral ties in a comprehensive, dialectical, and developing manner: Chinese FM spokesperson

    The NATO Summit in 2027 will be held in Tirana.

    NATO allies agree to allocate 5% of GDP to defense by 2035

    Reza Pahlavi: “This Is Our Berlin Wall Moment” — Exiled Prince Calls for Global Support as Iran Nears Regime Collapse

    Where does Donald Trump stand on the Israel-Iran conflict?

    Russia Proposes Second Round of Ukraine Peace Talks in Istanbul on June 2

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Home ENGLISH

Bosnia ‘on brink of collapse’ as EU watches on

5 January, 2024
in ENGLISH, English OP/ED
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Paddy Belton

The trial of Bosnian-Serb leader Milorad Dodik is moving towards a conclusion that some say could trigger the collapse of Bosnia.

Experts have told Brussels Signal that the European Union’s disengagement from Bosnia has let nationalists “pull the country apart”.

Dodik, under US sanctions and seen as increasingly close to Russia, is in his second term as President of the Republika Srpska – Bosnia’s Serb-majority entity.

He frequently threatens to secede from Bosnia and has called High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina Christian Schmidt “an unelected foreigner”, despite the fact that the Dayton Agreement – ending the 1992-95 Bosnian War – gives Schmidt the authority to cancel laws and dismiss officials deemed to be “threatening the peace”.

Adnan Ćerimagić, a Western Balkans analyst at the European Stability Initiative, told Brussels Signal: “The EU has kept Bosnia and Herzegovina outside its accession process” and “the vacuum of a credible EU future is now filled by a return to the nationalist agendas of the past”.

Ćerimagić  added that while the Bosnian courts are weighing the case against Dodik, the Bosnian-Serb leader appears to be trying to turn his trial into a campaign against Schmidt, the judiciary and Dayton.

By drawing out his trial, Ćerimagić said, Dodik hopes to “use the process as a platform for questioning High Representative Christian Schmidt’s legitimacy and his power to impose laws and stop legislative procedures in Republika Srpska”.

The 1995 Dayton settlement gives the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, who has always been from an EU country, powers within Bosnian politics that have been compared by some to those of a viceroy – a colonial official who rules as the representative of his or her king and who is empowered to act in the sovereign’s name.

On July 1, 2023, Schmidt used his extra so-called “Bonn Powers”, added in 1997, to change Bosnia’s criminal code. That meant any official failing to implement his decisions would face a prison sentence of between six months and five years and a ban on holding public office.

Six days later, Dodik said he would refuse to sign into law Schmidt’s proposed changes. On August 22, prosecutors indicted Dodik for not implementing Schmidt’s decisions.

Any court judgment against Dodik will likely come with a prison sentence and therefore force him to choose between acceptance and open defiance of the Dayton system.

Dodik said in December that if he was found guilty, he would “champion a break-up of Bosnia and Herzegovina”, and push for an independent Republika Srpska.

Such a break-up would also likely be the end of Bosnia-Herzegovina, say observers.

Nadina Ronc, a London-based political analyst who writes frequently on Bosnia, said: “If a break-up happens, Croats would want Herzegovina to separate, too – and Bosnia would be left as a tiny Muslim state with no powers.”

Whether Dodik is sincere about his intentions to break up Bosnia may be another matter.

“This is Dodik flexing his muscles to see how much the international community will give him,” argued Ronc. Dodik is “all talk and no action”, she said.

Appeasement brings other potential problems.

“The more you allow Dodik, the more instability in the region you get,” said Ronc.

Dayton was created “in a way to make Bosnia unstable for all eternity” and “if Bosnia erupts, the whole region will too”, she added.

“Without any move by the EU and NATO to extend Bosnia membership sooner rather than later, or even NATO to deploy troops to Brcko [city in Northern Bosnia]”, Europe would be allowing a vacuum for separatists such as Dodik to chart a different course for the region, she said.

Dodik has “demonstrated that he can openly defy a Dayton-mandated office–the Office of the High Representative–without sufficiently painful consequences,” said Kurt Bassuener, a Bosnia specialist and former strategist for then-High Representative Paddy Ashdown.

This is “partly also the reduction of military deterrent force on the ground under the other international executive instrument mandated by Dayton–EUFOR (a role mandated to NATO and handed over to the EU at the end of 2004),” he adds.

 

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