REAL POLITIK NO. 93
20 August – 10 SEPTEMBER 2025
Comments “ flash” on 4 major diplomatic events, only in 1.000 words by the well-known analyst, Grand Master in Diplomacy,
DR. JORGJI KOTE
1 The engines of the French- German axis in full swing!
The engines of the EU historic axis are in full working capacity, which was shown in the Meeting of the French-German Council of Ministers in Toulon, on 29 – 30 August, co-chaired by the French President Macron and Chancellor Merz and attended by 10 most important ministers for each side.
This meeting was important given the situation for the world and the EU, especially the escalation of the Russian agressison agaist Ukraine, the aggravation of the crisis in the Middle East and other serious geopolitical challenges.
Besides, France and Germany were expected to level put their five major disaccords: the shared loans for financing military expenses, dispatch ground troops in Ukraine, the use of nuclear energy, the free trade agreement “Mercosur“ with South America and the recognition of the State of Palestine.
Its 26 – page statement included “ The economic Agenda” with 8 strategic concepts and 20 pilot projects, various reforms to reduce red tape and facilitation of investments, trade, energy, technology, thee construction of the “Southeastern”hydro energy line among France, Germany, Spain and Portugal.
Meanwhile, Germany agreed that France could use nuclear energy.
Both supported the EU program of “ Digital sovereignty” and objected the relevant US pressure.
Whereas in the security area, they talked on defence cooperaion, joint production of arms and ammunition, continuation of aids for Ukraine, security guarantees and other items.
Meanwhile, they postponned for the end of the year the adoption of their most important project together with Spain, the manufacture of the modern military planes withh drones FCAS. Since the French company “Dassault“ claims more wider particiaprin in the control and decision – making process leading to a long deadlock. Likewise, the french- german disaccord for sending ground troops in Ukraine was passed with the pledge to support the Ukrainian army in other important domains.
Much work needs to be done for the materialization of the major project of setting up the early warning system for the missile defence and the integration of ground radars “ JEWEL”, where other countries will also be invited.
Finally, they agreed on “ maximum pressure” over Russia in order to end the war in Ukraine. In this context, they emphasized the significance of nuclear deterrence for Russia with the relevant assurances.
A hot diplomatic autumn in the UN New York !
Apparently, the summer heat will continue in New York during in autumn during the 80th Session of the UN General Assembly opened on 9 September and the top level debate from 22 – 27 September.
The state and diplomatic leaders will continue their previous efforts and clashes in the Glass Palace on many crises, particularly the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the Middle East. With many promises, pledges, predictions but with less hopes for peace.
At the limelight will certainly be President Trump, as the head of the host state and who in his first 7 months is shaking the foundations of international relations. Replacing gradually the force of international law with the law of force, imposing hard power and the zones of influence with his transactionalist doctrine, whose core is profit through political and commercial deals. With his claims to end the wars although he is stucked in the mud with in Ukraine.
In the Middle East peace is still far away and the situation remains explosive. Iran is starting its preparations for the atomic bomb; his “reserve” armies, the Houths and Hisbullah are trying to recover after subsequent losses. Arab states, including Lebanon anf Syria are preparing peace deals with Israel. However, the situation there is more complicated after Israeli attacks in Gaza and Netyanahu’s latest decision for its occupation.
Meanwhile, the recognition of the State of Palestine has become a new ”apple of disaccord” among arab and western states against US and Israel opposition. The USA refused the entry visa for the delegation of the Palestinian Authority in New York, although in this case it is a neutral place. This delegation would attend also the Conference co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia for the Palestine’s recognition on 22 September there.
The decision by France, the UK, Canada, Portugal, Australia, Belgium and many other countries to recognize Palestine during this UN session has “poured more oil to the fire“
Given these developments, the “two states” solution has become a top priority in the international agenda with no other alternative.
3. The Troika that defies the West !
As such did appear in the celebrations of the 80th Anniversay of the end of the WW II and the grand parade in Peking on 3 September presidents Xijin Ping, Putin and Kim Jong un. Now it is evident that this fearful troika is seeking a new international order but this time under their rule. For they are more in numbers and in the political, economic and military power. The military parade in Tienamen, their speeches and unity intends to weaken and defy the USA. The latter not only failed to divide China from Russia but they are falling apart from Europe, their traditional ally.
4. Bayrou fell, what about Macron? 9 months after the fall of his predecessor, the prominent europeanist, Michel Barnier, on 8 September, it was the Bayrou-led government that lost the parliamentary vote of confidence. Although expected, this is another political earthquake for France and President Macron.
Now we have to see if the newly appointed Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu would be able to establish a majority government. Otherwise, France would enter into endless spiral of crises and debts. Infringing the political and economic stability in France, which would deter market investors and make them lose their trust on the state, at a time when the public debt is at record high levels of 116 per cent. Meawhile, Macron’s resignation and early elections can not guarantee that a single party would win absolute majority, and so the crises would further escalate. With serious effects on France and the EU, which even now is full of serious debts, crises and challenges. And above all what would happen with President Macron, now the real target of the opposition and the massive blocking protest movement launched on 10 September has swept through the whole France.
© 2025 Argumentum
