REAL POLITIK FLASH NO. 85
17 MARCH – 10 April 2025
With “ flash” comments on 4 major events in only 1000 words by the prominent analyst,
Dr. Jorgji KOTE
1. US nuclear tariff bomb!
This is how prominent world personalities qualify the latest Trump’s tariffs. Even some great economy experts and Trump supporters, as Elon Musk are sounding their notes of protest. The former IMF chief economist and prominent Harvard professor, Kenneth Rogoff says “ this is the worst post WWII economic experiment.” Likewise, the CEO of Federal Investment Funds, billionere Bill Ackman has declared: “ with these tariffs Trump is heading to a nuclear war” worldwide and this is the greatest mistake which stems from bad arithmetics”.
And this issue would be solved in relevant international economic forums and most specifically in the World Trade Organization ( WTO) in Geneva founded in 1947 on US initiative with 166 countries.
According to experts, the three Trump’s goals with these tariffs will fail because “ the absolute US export-import balance is impossible and nonsense for it wont’t profit from labour division”. Secondly, the tariffs will not foster domestic production, for given a weakened industry it will shrink and fall further. Foreign investors will also hesitate to go to USA due to legal ambiguities and unforeseeable situations there. Economy expert Samira Sulan says that ” Its neither a mistake nor a problem for the USA to import more than it exports; this shows that it has sufficient paying capacities, capital values and investments”.
This is why the tariffs imposed on 2 April have stunned even Trump supporters, republican senators and congressmen and prominent experts of international trade law; as Prof. Veronika Grimm says, “these tariffs mark the end of globalism”.
But now this is “a fait accompli” and after China, Japan, Germany, other countries have warned their tariff counter response. The latter will be also accompanied with other forms – boycott of goods and services, reduction of foreign investments in the USA due to continuous incertainties, increased price and inflation leading to stagnation; given the above-mentioned, President Trump won’t be able to deliever his electoral glamourous promises; this embargo may continue, as it has already begun with the reluctance of foreign tourists to go to USA, apart from serious harms and damages to the US image, as champion of democracy and free trade.
Par consequence, these tariffs not only won’t be “the second liberation” but they might turn into a boomerang or even a political, economic and social suicide for the US. The alarming bells are heard everywhere, with crashes in world stock& commodity exchanges and increased likelyhood for recession, which according to Gold& Sachs is up from 20 to 35 per cent.
This is why the unexpected suspense of these tariffs on 9 April for 90 days, except China was welcomed with relief everywhere.
2. Europa fires back! This has already started with the EU Finance Ministers in Luxembourg on 7 – 8 April. Facing the new severe import tariffs imposed by President Trump on 2 April, the ministers were in favour of dialogue and talks with USA, starting with the proposal for a “ zero rate” tariff for all industrial goods.
If this fails as the odds are, then the EU will counterreact with its measures as the largest trade market worldwide. On the other hand, the EU intends to build a new paradigm of free world trade and new alliances with the UK, Turkey, India, Japan and others. Likewise, it is rushing to conclude free trade agreements with Asian, Latin American and African countries.
Certainly, this is a very grave situation for the EU, after COVID – 19, the Russian aggression against Ukraine and now Trump trade tariffs.
However, as Jean Monnet has propheticized “ Europa forges through crises and it is the sum total of the alternatives it offers for their resolution”
3. NATO ok, but with or without its Article 5?
NATO Foreign Ministers met in Brussels on 3 – 4 April. The US Secretary of State Rubio tried to console the hearts of his counterparts on the US guarantees for the European security and that the USA will stay in NATO. But this did not satisfy his colleagues. Because the question is not simply NATO and whether the USA would continue to be there. What is decisive is whether the USA would apply the famous Article 5 on collective security if a NATO Member State is attacked. And not simply and formally send some troops and planes there but on the major US strategic responsibility to protect allied Europe as in the last 80 years.
But neither President Trump nor Secretary Rubio have provided a clear, full and reliable reply to date. This is also due to the fact that USA under Trump make no distinction between friend and foes; even more, they are in better terms with foes while they do not hesitate to shut the doors to their friends and allies in public, as they did with President Zelenski.
4. Kallas urges reforms!
On 8 April, the EU Foreign Policy Chief Mme Kaja Kallas stopped in Tirana in the margins of her first Balkan tour. In her encoutner with PM Rama and their joint Press Briefing, it was seen that unlike her predecessors, Mme Kallas was more sparing with praises and cmpliments to the host. With regard to the major objective “ Albania in the EU 2030” although she confirmed it, different from Albanian the official propaganda, she underlined that this is a very hard process, since it requires many efforts, reforms and “ home work”. Kallas did also make it clear that a popular vote for a single Party as PM Rama claims is not the solution, it needs the support from all political forces, the civil society, all.
Actually, this was the proper EU message. Because “Albania in the EU 2030” seems to be taken for granted by our governing majority, reducing it to a matter of a popular vote for the Socialist Party after 12 years in power with electoral candies and firworks! However, if for EU 30 would suffice the votes for a single party, then it would be very easy, for we could all vote for that party and be automatically become EU Member State. But this is impossible without the support from the opposition, in particular, since it is indeed not only the government and its diplomacy that will join the EU but the whole Albania and its society.
© 2025 Argumentum
