REAL POLITIK NO. 104
1 – 16 MAY 2026
Coments ” flash” on the four major diplomatic events with only 1.000 words by the well-known analist, Grand master in Diplomacy,
DR. JORGJI KOTE
1.Neither peace nor war! This is the situation in the Middle East in the conflict with Iran. Only announcements, warnings, ultimatums, scenaries, but the deadlock in the Hormuz Strait continues with devastating effects for the world economy. With rising prices for crude oil and chemical fertilizers for agriculture; 1/3 of these products pass there, plus the Gulf states which are their largest producers and exporters – phosphates, amonium nitrate and urea, which are indispensable for agriculture. Even worse duing this period when the farmers plant the new farm crops; this would lead to the output cut, less supply in the market, increased prices and costs for the buyers. As the UN sounded the note of alarm a few days ago, this mega-crisis threatens the life of over 45 million folks in Asia, Africa and Latin America. If the situation would go on like this, the effects will be even greater, affecting also Western Balkan. But even if and when the crisis is over, unlike crude oil, chemical fertilizer’s market needs much more time to recover. Meawhile, the health service would be also seriously affected due to lack of helium used for scanners, as well as transport, infrstructure and other areas.
2. Peace with bombs!? In his speech during the military parade on 9 May, President Putin surprised all announcing that the war in Ukraine is edging closer to the end and that he is ready to talk on peace with Europe; moreover, hinting as EU negotiator the former German Chancellor Gerhard Schrőder, Putin’s close friend, who for many years was Chairman of the Board of the Russian oil giant Rossneft. This was an absurd game and provocation since it never happen to suggest to the other whom he would assign as mediator. Even less a discredited figure in Germany and in Europe as Schrőder. Therefore, the EU refused it categorically. Meanwhile, it has discussed without finding the necessary consensus on conducting peace talks with Moscow. Actually, the problem is much greater and serious than it is thought. Before such peace talks, Moscow should provide the proper climate and environment and the confidence- building measures, the sacred principle of Helsinki Final Act. So, if Putin is serious with his latest peace proposal, he should stop the aggression and withdraw his troops from Ukraine together with the necessary security guarantees. But there is no sign about that in the horizon; even worse after the three day ceasefire, Russia started bombarding heavily Ukraine and Kyev with many victims among them women and chidren.
Likewise, Moscow should first give up its previous conditions for an Ukraine without army, without NATO, without European security troops, without pre – 2014 borders and without Donbas, since that would mean capitulation or new occupation for Ukraine and Europe. But actually Moscow is hinting peace talks just to have a moment’s respite, to draw the attention from its losses and failures against Ukraine, in the Middle East and split the West and the EU. Meanwhile, the huge antagonistic differences between Europe and Russia are like a mountain! So, although peace talks are desirable, under these bombing circumstances, it is very difficult, not to say impossible to achive any concrete result, at least during this year, as the Finnish President Alexander Stubb said a few days ago. Therefore, it remains valid the Roman proverbial saying “ if you want peace, prepare for war”!
3. IBAR in autumn?! This question arises after the failure to reach a consensus also in the latest meeting held on 12 May in Brussels by COELA or the Working Group for Enlargement for passing the EU Commission Interim Report on the Benchmarks for Albania ( IBAR) Even worse, from 8 now there are 9 states with reservations, suspicions and demands for explanations. Let us hope that this would be the case in the meetings on 19/ 22 May; otherwise, they will set up a working group by the EU Council to draft a consensual text so that IBAR could be adopted later. But this would take a long time, until autumn or maybe the end of the year. Which means that until then we shall not be able to close any other chapter, threatening in this way the fulfilment of our major goal to conclude the accession negotiations in 2027. Moreover that chapters 23/24, where we are stucked in are considered “the essence of the EU” and “ Achilles heel” for us at this process. Because they include justice, the rule of law, independence of the judiciary, fight against impunity and corruption, where our problematics are numerous and EU does not tolerate.
However, our diplomacy should continue to work intensively, so that whenever this cluster is closed, we should be ready to close the five remaining clusters and thus compensate lost time. Meanwhile, the government should respond with concrete measures to the critical remarks of EU Member States and with European spirit, with no similar incidents with the well-known dossiers, especially those related to the impunity of top officials.
4. Not another Hormuz in Taivan! President Trump made his first official visit in Peking on 14-15 May where he held talks with his Chinese counterpart Xi jin Ping with the already known results. President Xi was in more advantageous positions. Trump was in Peking without a peace deal between Russia – Ukraine, with the situation “ neither peace nor war” in the Middle East, with the nulification of his trade tariffs by US courts, the damaged relations with European allies, with the lowest popularity only 5 months ahead of mid-term elections, where the republicans could suffer a serious defeat.
However, their historic meeting, Chinese President’s appeal to be partners and not oponents, the invitation to visit Uashington and others have pacified the turbulant geopolitical waters, with positive impact on the world politics, security and economy. Most impressively, President Xi from the outset of their meeting warned Trump for Taivan, so that the strait there should not become a second Hormuz with more serious and unpredictable effects. Most importantly, Trump’s statement on a G 2 between them puts Cina on an equal geopolitical bar with USA.
© 2026 Argumentum
