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REAL POLITIK NO. 105
17 – 31 MAY 2026
Coments ” flash” on the four major diplomatic events with only 1.000 words by the well-known analist, Grand master in Diplomacy,
DR. JORGJI KOTE
1.IBAR? ”Sufficiently”! After four months of debates and scepticim scepticism from some states, the EU Working Group for Enlargement, COELA passed with the note “ sufficient” IBAR- the Interim Benchmark Assessment Report of the EU Commission. Accordingly, on 26 May, the 8th Intergovernmental Conference with the EU marked the provisional closure of the first cluster “ Fundamentals” which paves the way to the closure of the next five clusters, hoping that our accession negotiations would end within 2027. Although before that we have to pass again in COELA’s loophole on Fundamentals or “Achilles heel” for us. With 32 new additional conditions, criteria and requirements. However, even that was mainly thanks to geopolitics, otherwise the things could have been even worse. Hence, we should abstain from refrain and rhetoric and replace them with reforms and results to reach our major goal “Albania in the EU in 2030”. Without repeating cases running contrary to the EU spirit and letters, especially when it comes to the rule of law and the impunity of top officials.
2. Much ado about nothing! It is not about Shakespeare’s famous comedy but about some encouraging news and messages during the last two weeks for Western Balkans EU Enlargement.
Following the 6 – point proposal by the Geman Foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul and proposals by five other EU Foreign Ministers, on 20 May, the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz sent a letter with concrete recommendations for internal reforms and the EU Enlargement to the President of the EU Commission and EU Council, Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa and to other EU leaders.
These three packages recommend the gradual integration towards Western Balkans EU membership. Here the essential idea is the acknowledgment of reforms in various sectors with the view to rewar aspiring countries with different bonuses, especially a quicker access to the EU single market; the same applies to their increased presence with observer status in the EU Council and Parliament. These and other already known measures are considered as intermediary steps to help and encourage candidate countries in the speeding up reforms, since EU accession is not a short and light way to go.
Actually, such proposals were also suggested years ago from a team of EU prominent experts and most recently by the prestigous German foundation “Politik und Wissenschaft”.
This is why, as it was mentioned by Barbara Lipert, Rsearch Directres at this foundation, who has over 35 years been dealing with Western Balkans and Enlargemen with several publications as well, this package of proposals is like “ an old song but with a new melody and new instruments in the integration orchestra”.
These proposals are updated now since Berlin and Paris, as EU leaders are seeking new forms and formats to narrow down the existing deep gaps among the following three major actors and factors: the terrible EU needs and deficits for its internal reform, which would help it to accommodate tomorrow 35 or even 37 states, when today they are facing a lot of difficulties even with 27 member states! It is also the great need for quality improvements in the candidate states with reforms designed to speed up their EU accession, but this time not only for the sake of geopolitics but as a reward for their merits in the reform performance; and all these under the conditions of an increased Russian pressure and its hybrid war everyhere, including Western Balkan countries; therefore the latter, while not seeing light at the end of the tunnel could not slide to Moscow.
On the other hand, without these bonuses and precautions, the remaining time for enlargement and especially year 2030 as the major objective is very tight and not promising.
However, given also the past experience, albeit the fuss, glamour and summits, it is hard to expect something concrete for the “translation” of these ideas and proposals into decisions, due to the lack of cohesion among EU Member States, different hurdles and interests and the pressing need for the EU internal reform, without which the much expected enlargement could not advance.
3.Sharp contrasts in Peking were seen during the visit of US President Trump on 14 – 15 May and Russia, Vladimir Putin on 19 – 20 May in Peking. Actually, everything during Putin’s visit, the protocol and its ceremonial, the joint declaration, 40 agreements signed in all domains, their relaxed enthusiastic statements which did not occur with Trump revealed the visible contrasts between the sustainable China-Russian strategic alliance vis à vis the USA and Europe. It was a golden opportunity both for President Xi and Putin to reconfirm their traditional alliance in favor of a new multipolar word; whereas Trump continues to attack and weaken its traditional alliance with the EU. Therefore, the US goal to divide China with Russia has failed right now; instead, the concern is how to save the alliance between the US with the EU, UK, Canada, Japan, Australia and others, with or without Trrump later.
4. Where is the exit?! This is the question about the current situation ” neither peace nor war in Iran continues with many dilemmas and question marks. With Trump’s warnings, threats and daily ultimatums but which no one is paying heed to. Iran continues to recover and wage a war of nerves or “ drag but not cut the rope” and till now he is doing well; moreover that Trump has not a plan B or an exit strategy in place. Even worse, the latest data and information show the damages inflicted through US/Israeli attacks against Iran were not so devastative as claimed against Iranian missiles and its strategic military bases. Although President Trump did not attend even his elder son’s marriage just to be at the helm of his duty , there is no agreement in place yet there. They are talking on a frame deal, but without guarantes, except putting off the ceasefire one more month to gain time. It is the dreadful triple – enriched uranium, Hormuz Strait and Iranian frozen assets that are waiting for a solution. Trump has promised to make a better agreement than that of Obama in 2015, but till now, except drafts time and again, there is no sign or “ smell” of any deal at all. The worst of all, there is no exit gate till now.
© 2026 Argumentum
