The Middle East – where and when next?

Dr. J. Scott Younger,
International Chancellor of the President University in
Indonesia,Honorary Senior Research Fellow of the
Glasgow University and member of IFIMES Advisory Board
 

President Trump is now in his sixth month of his current term of the presidency. On taking office on 29th January 2025, he has provided the media with plenty of column inches. He boasted that when he was the President that he would end the two ongoing struggles, Ukraine and Israel, each within a day and he would not become embroiled in any more wars, all of which pledges have been broken. He was confident that his ‘friendship’ was strong enough that he would be able to make the leaders of the two conflicts, Putin and Netanyahu, stop what they were doing.

In the short time he has been president, those who have to make consequent decisions have had to learn how to best handle this unpredictable, narcissistic man, taking in much time in the effort. His cabinet team have to be loyal, more important than being competent. In fact, the team are like a second eleven, interpreting the signs emanating from political circles. Will this team last another three and a half years?

Meanwhile, in the past three months or so, the Israelis have tightened their grip on Gaza, dismissing the UN and other aid agencies and thereby the much- needed aid to the Palestinians caught in Gaza. It is now all handled by them. They have effectively starved the people, raising a universal complaint correctly talking about genocide. They, with the Americans, have conjured up a new body which would handle all food aid henceforward despite being strongly advised that the system they were considering would not work, but the Israelis were determined to press ahead. Thus, in the past month, we have seen all too clearly, inadequate supplies, and 400 deaths from IDF taking aim and shooting starving people coming forward for supplies. The IDF say they were worried that the ‘mobs’ of people coming towards them, at their instruction, would do them harm. Unarmed!! I don’t know who they are trying to convince. This is the completely unsatisfactory system that currently exists.

Now finished, Israel started a war with Iran, their ‘enemy’, which lasted for 12 days. As PM Netanyahu speaks to Trump every day, on his own admission, the war must have had US approval. Since Iran does not have an air force to speak of, Israel could bomb Iran’s nuclear assets freely with Iran only being able to hit back with drones and missiles, the majority being caught by Israel’s ‘iron dome’. 

There needs to be a two-state solution

Trump indicated that he would allow Iran up to two weeks to come to the negotiating table but he would then also bomb Iran. In fact, it only took him 2-3 days to make arrangements for the special planes which could drop bombs that would penetrate to the depths required to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordo, the location at which nuclear enrichment to a level required for bombs was taking place. Complete success claimed Trump at the end of the mission. However, the evidence would tend to dispute this, although some damage has occurred.

Netanyahu is currently paying his third visit to the White House. Trump has declared his desire to end the war in Gaza. There are currently meetings going on with representatives of Israel, Palestinians/Hamas, Qataris, Egyptians and US to discuss Trump’s two- month ceasefire plan as a first step towards a permanent solution. This period is to be used to complete the Hostage swap. But what of the long-term?

Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire while Netanyahu wishes to resume hostilities after the two-months to annihilate Hamas completely. The far right of the Israeli government want the Palestinians confined in a designated space around Rafah while they take over the rest of Gaza. There have been vocal alarm signals from the UN and the EU and elsewhere in the world that this violates international law. Much depends now on Donald Trump and whether the persuasion of Bibi Netanyahu who, yesterday realising the way to persuade Trump was to praise him once more. This was done over dinner in the White House by him handing over a letter in which he recommended Trump for the Nobel Peace prize!! It has become known that he wants this top honour. From one designated felon to another. It must not happen – at least until he has proved to the world that he has earned it, and that will take some time. We wait and see. 

There needs to be a two- state solution, fairness for the Palestinians, a 10-year handover period with a small group of distinguished, empathetic persons to assist an embryonic state with defined boundaries and not dependent on Israel. The US should play a significant role as should the EU and fellow Arab neighbours. Trump could even bring his Riviera of the Middle East idea as part of the solution. In that way, he could really demonstrate his peace intentions.

The steps the US should take in the future

In the meantime, while the US was otherwise diverted by the Iran situation, Putin started to ratchet up his war in Ukraine. He had more or less turned down Trump’s suggestion of a two-months ceasefire and has more recently stepped up his aerial bombardment of Ukraine. Putin has also taken on 30,000 more troops from N. Korea and is pushing ahead with his ground forces. 

Trump made a call to Putin recently, which was unsatisfactory and which at least cleared in his mind the position that the US should take in the future. The recent meeting of NATO, which he attended, must have provided him some degree of comfort, the Europeans signing up to a financial commitment per country of 5% of GDP within ten years. He has re-engaged with Ukraine by sending arms assistance, which he had recently stopped on the understanding that his ‘friend’ Putin would agree to his ceasefire proposal. This is a relief to the Europeans, who are not fully ready to push back against the Russian advance within Ukraine.

Back to Gaza, which remains a very tricky situation to resolve. There are complications, particularly if the far right is allowed to exercise its apparent power. In the first place, what Trump will do will give an indication of what may follow. I don’t think we shall have long to wait.

/IFIMES