The fish on the sea, but the frying pan on the fire! The US breakthrough! The German-French-British European Troyka!
REAL POLITIK FLASH NO. 91
01 – 21 JULY 2025
With “ flash” comments on 4 major events in only 1000 words by the prominent analyst,
DR. JORGJI KOTE
Grand Master in Diplomacy
1.Geopolitical equation with several unknowns: There were long discussions on this equation during the visit of Izraeli’ Prime Minister Netyanahu in Washington with President Trump on 7/6 July. With promises for a rapid ceacefire in Gaza and in other countries of the region, for a new Middle East as President Trump has promised. Although as they say “ this is easily said than done” even less over night or in a year. Due to the fact that this geopolitical puzzle involves at least 10 major actors and factors with problems, rifts and disaccords among them – the USA, Russia, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestina and others. Thus, we have the unresolved conflict between Israel and Iran, with Huths and Hiszbollah; recently the new clashes outburst between Syria and Israel in Southern Syria against the religous minority of druzen which continues despite the ceasefire reached on 18th July. Likewise, Saudi Arabia wants peace with Israel provided that the latter withdraws from Gaza and recognizes the “ two states solution” for Palestine. Lebanon and Syria have also their own conditions in joining Abraham deals. Without neglecting the key Palestinian issue and the “two states” solution, which is opposed by the Israeli far right and Prime Minister Netyanahu. But, without stopping the current violence against the civil population in Gaza and of Palestine by and large, this equation with several unknowns cannot be settled. Neither can there be genuine and sustainable peace nor a New Middle East.
2. The fish in the sea but the frying pan on the fire! This aphorism suits to the Summit for Ukraine’s reconstruction hosted by Italy in Rome on 10/11 July at the presence of 60 world leaders. It confirmed that this reconstruction will last 14 years and it would require 850 Billion Euros, from 500 Billion in the previous estimate. The problem with this Summit, the fourth after that in Berlin last year is that no one knows when the war would end in Ukraine. And in the case of peace, under what terms and conditions or Ukraine’s division after the South Korean model? Therefore, German Chancellor Merz was right when on 19 July he declared that it is too early to talk on Ukraine’s EU accession before 2034. For, first the war has to end, then the reconstruction and EU membership. This is why this Summit reminds the saying “ the fish in the sea but the frying pan on the fire”!
3. The US breakthrough was announced during the meeting in the White House between the NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and President Trump on 14 July. Trump declared that the USA will dispatch very soon the advanced missile systems “ Patriot” to Ukraine and other armamment, due to be financed by Germany and other EU states. This was the much expected breakthrough, which would strengthen Ukraine’s position in the battle lines. President Trump also issued an Ultimatum to Russia to sit within 50 days on the negotiation table and make peace with Ukraine; otherwise, the USA will apply 100 per cent import tariffs to Russia and it will unleash secondary measures against the countries that help Rusia with imports. The problem is that this 50 day deadline is a long time and it leaves room for guesses, suspicions and abusals from Russia, which even after the Ultimatum has intensified its attacks against Ukraine. Meanwile, the Russian diplomacy has plenty of time to think on several alternatives to avoid the effects of the above-mentioned ultimatum, as it has done before. In fact, on 18 July, during a phone call between President Erdogan and Putin they expressed the readiness for the third round of peace negotiations in Turkey. Meanwhile, until September, no one knows what comes next with President Trump, well-known for his unpredictability.
4. The French-German-British European Troyka has become an established geopolitical reality in the latest months with several summits and agreements. Thus, on 10 korrik, President Macron was in London for State Visit, where he was received with highest state honours. He signed with PM Starmer an important bilateral agreement in harmony with the Treaty between EU – UK signed in May in London; it is aimed at promoting their cooperation in the area of defence and expresses the readiness to protect other allies including the nuclear umbrella gurantees. Likewise, it fosters the fight against illegal migration and the free movement of youth and students. Likewise, the German Chancellor Merz was in London on 17 July and signed with his British counterpart Starmer the bilateral Treaty of Friendship. It also encompasses economic cooperation, the fight against illegal migration, student exchanges, the free movement of youth and above all defence cooperation as its core. This does also include cooperation in the defence industry, the shared production of war aicrafts, tanks and armoured vehicles. Then, on 23 July, the French President Macron will be in Berlin to meet Chancellor Merz and talk on the same burning issues and the support for Ukraine. These important exchange of visits and agreements follow the historic NATO Summit in the Hague on 24/25 June, where each NATO Member State agreed to contribute with 5 per cent of their GDP for defence; meanwhile, the strengthening of such a cooperation with continue with other EU Member States, so that this 5 per cent would have the largest economic efficiency; with the final goal to put the defence industries on work as soon as possible in view of rearming Europe. These three major European states together with Poland, Italy and others are also willing to increase their military and economic aids to Ukraine. So that when it comes for the peace talks with Moscow, Kyev would be in stronger negotiating position. Upon their initiative, on 18 July, after Slovakia “gave in” the EU adopted the 18th package of sanctions against Russia.
Thus, the consolidation of the EU axis France – Germany and it continued reapproachment with the UK is producing a powerful political, economic, diplomatic and military basis, which is very helpful for the rapid transformation of EU into an immense Defence Union and for the “ Europeanization of NATO”. Certainly, this requires time, projects and above all the materialization of the plans and agreements already signed among them.
© 2025 Argumentum
