The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1], headquartered in Ljubljana, Slovenia, is well known for its in-depth analyses of global affairs, with a particular emphasis on the Middle East, the Balkans, and other key regions around the world. Among its distinguished contributors is Dr. J. Scott Younger, President Commissioner at Glendale Partners and a member of the IFIMES Advisory Board. In the article titled “The world goes on as usual – unpredictably,” Dr. Younger continues his analysis of developments in Gaza and Ukraine, and the Trump Administration’s response.
● Dr. J. Scott Younger,
International Chancellor of the President University
in Indonesia,Honorary Senior Research Fellow of
the Glasgow University,member of IFIMES Advisory Board
The world goes on as usual – unpredictably
The world goes on as usual – unpredictably. Both main areas of severe dissent and war conditions, Ukraine and Gaza, remain unsettled. The world awaits Donald Trump to see what he will do, since he pledged to end both conflicts in a day, more or less. After 6 months, he has learned that the task was much more complicated than a man of his ability could resolve. He has demonstrated a short attention span and prefers quick wins, to which the world of diplomacy is quite unsuited and where the temperament required is one of patience and more patience. However, he is quite prepared to try bullying to get his way, ideal for his narcissist personality and the world has to come to terms with this. As President of the US, he undoubtedly holds the most power which, unfortunately, he has shown that he will exercise according to whoever has been ‘nice’ to him and praised him for what he is doing, whether it is right or wrong, often wrong’ a case in point. The PM of Israel, Benyamin Netanyahu, who says proudly that he is in regular contact with Trump, has just announced that he is going to send in the IDF to take over the whole of Gaza starting with Gaza city, which holds much of the remaining population, and force them to move once again to the south, Rafah. This is despite the strong objections of senior generals, the families of the remaining hostages and the majority of the population, as well as senior officials, including former Ministers of Israeli governments, who have written to Trump to get Netanyahu to desist. He is playing along to please a small number of right-wingers, such as Ben-Gvir, knowing that some Israeli lives will be lost. The right- wingers like Trump’s aim, when he first came into office, to build the Riviera of the Middle East after Israel had taken over the whole of Gaza and dismissed the Palestinian population.
Israeli PM is satisfied that he has Trump’s backing
However, when asked about the situation in Gaza at a press conference, Trump just said that it was entirely the Israel’s cabinet’s decision. No interest. Obviously, the Israeli PM is satisfied that he has Trump’s backing, despite a growing clamour from countries across the world, including neighbouring Arab countries. If Netanyahu proceeds with this, and there does not appear that nothing will stop him, since he has US backing, in the long run he takes the risk of turning Israel into a pariah state, and the US will take some of the blame.
Netanyahu knew what he was doing when he presented the letter to Trump which showed that he was promoting him to a Nobel peace prize, a most prestigious award being given by a unconvicted war criminal to a felon!! Trump was suitably flattered since it has become common knowledge that he dearly wants this and believes he deserves it. In no way is this deserved and existing holders of the award should protest if it goes further.
Meanwhile, Trump’s attention has switched to the war in Ukraine and was rather cross with President Putin after their previous call. However, after a recent conversation they agreed to meet in Alaska last Friday. Trump sounded somewhat hesitant when he was discussing the content of what he thought they would be the topic to be covered. In the meantime, Zelenskyy has met with European leaders, who are pushing for him to be at this meeting.
Trump says it will be all right with him but Putin may say no. It is strange hat the leader of the host nation, Ukraine, be omitted from the talks, as has been pointed out by the European nations. Come what may, it does not seem likely that a workable resolution will be found at these talks and any that follow. The war will continue, Putin will try to expand his incursion into Ukraine, Trump will lose patience and withdraw and tell Europe to get on with the war themselves. Alternatively, maybe, and hopefully Putin will be persuaded to settle with the Donbas and neighbouring region as well as Crimea, which they grabbed over a decade ago. I see no end to hostilities, unless Ukraine gives up some land, however reluctantly, but in any agreement that Russia signs it will respect in perpetuity the new borders with Ukraine. NATO and Russia should also, in parallel, sign a peace treaty with the EU to the fore, not the US.
Looking at the long-term, although it does not help the persecuted peoples of the current world, I am reminded of Friedmann’s writings (2009) on forecasting the century. He thought that the US would dominate most of the time but other nations would gradually catch up and surpass it. Then, more recently, Runciman (2018) noting Trump’s style was moved to write ‘How democracy ends’ not having the benefit of a look at the second term. He predicted that governments would become more authoritarian in style and that democracy was in danger of ‘withering on the vine’. Perhaps, they should read Ritchie’s (2024) book, written on the back of serious study of natural events facing us today, the most obvious being climate change, which Trump does not believe in and is busily cancelling all Obama’s legislation to bring in mitigation measures. Ritchie, of the Millennial generation, wrote ‘Not the end of the world’ and gives us all hope provided we take the correct measures to deal with the natural or manmade events which endanger the world. At the same time, we must elect the right kind of people to manage the affairs of state.
References:
- Friedman, G. (2009). The next 100 years. Doubleday, NY, USA.
- Runciman, D (2018). How democracy ends. Profile Books Ltd, London.
- Ritchie, H. (2024). Not the end of the world. Chatto & Windus.
