REAL POLITIK NO. 96
28 OCTOBER – 25 NOVEMBER 2025
Comments “ flash” on 4 major diplomatic events, only in 1.000 words by the well-known analyst, Grand Master in Diplomacy,
DR. JORGJI KOTE
1.A Trade Ceasefire was considered the much expected meeting on 30 October between US President, Trump and his chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea. It occurred after serious clashes between them, threatening a world economic war with unpredictable effects. Trump’s new economic policies and the high import duties applied against China and other states would undermine the world trade and economy, which even like this are full of tensions and conflicts.
But diplomacy and moderate attitudes by both countries avoided that war even though temporarily. Finally, they reached the deal and peace between the two states. After that China eased its export rules also for the EU. Although for a period of only one year but with an extension possibility.
In return, China did also ease its exports of rare earths, where it dictates the markets, which are defining for the economy, security, technology and defence of western countries.
However, caution is needed, since here it is not meant a genuine and lasting economic peace but simply a provisional but useful “ trade ceasefire”. Therefore, international diplomacy continues with persistence to work on finding a true and lasting tariff peace.
2.Progress or regress reports? This is the question arising after one reads the so-called “ Progress Reports” that the EU Commission publicated and handed over on on 4th of November. It has become a tradition for years that on the eve of the end of a year, the EU Commission drafts and publishes such reports which indicate in concrete terms each country’s progress in Western Balkans in all its vital areas. It is a careful scrutiny done by the immense corpus of EU economists.
However, the problem is that it has been years now that these reports with their synthetic indices instead of progress, they show much more regress in all countries of our region, without exception. Just have a look at them and you will note that they contain much more critical remarks and worrying problems than achievements. Our country too, despite achievements lacks much to be desired in many vital sectors; in particular in the fight againt organized crime and corruption, many critical remarks for the elections of 11 May 2025 with several irregularies and others. Hence, it has been correctly suggested that instead of the” progress” to find a more proper name for this basic European document. Moreover that the EU Member States and Parliament, when they review these reports, they are likely to add other political remarks and criticism.
3. “ The montaineous road” of negotiations 2027!
On 17 November, the opening of the Fifth Cluster in Brussels marked the opening of all 33 chapters of negotiations for our EU accession. This is an important moment which deserves to be greeted. However, in real terms this means that “ honeymoon with the EU is over” and now we have two years of work and challenges. Moreover, if until now we were driving in a field road, in the remaining 24 monrths we hav to climb a mountaineous road with plenty of strong turning points.
The good news is that we have produced several signififacant advantages to date. Thus, Albania has the largest support in the region on EU membership; we have acquired a great experience in the last 11 years after gaining the EU candidate status; there is an efficient, experienced and well-qualified team of negotiators in place, we have an efficient diplomatic service, especially our Diplomatic Mission to the EU in Brussels; a very important factor is the Assembly’s contribution whose work in the legislation approximation and in supervising the EU processes which is internationally recognized.
Abroad, apart from the favourable geopolitical factor we have a much more positive image thanks also to some appreciated steps in the diplomatic area, EU and regional summits in Tirana and others. Likewise, in principle we enjoy the political, economic and financial support by al EU Member States, the Commission and thee EU Parliament. Then, unlike before, the EU Enlargement Strategy permits us to conclude simultaneously some or even all the negotation clusters.
Meanwhile, caution is needed to avoid the minuses and well-known problematics; for if they are not solved or eliminated, may diminish and even devaluate the above-mentioned achievements and advantages. They are reflected in all official EU and OSCE documents; they were also mentioned at the presence of PM Rama in Brussels on 4 and 17 November also by EU Commissioner, Marta Kos: election irregularities in the elections on 11 May which are mentioned in the Progress Report 2025 the Electoral Reform, dialogue with opposition, the state behaviur vs the media and civil society, judiciary independence, the principle of the division of powers, the autonomy of local government, transparency with public funding, fight against crime and corruption and others. Well, when we work out all these problematics, one can see the “ high mountain” of work we have to climb until 2027 in our hard road of the said negotiations.
4. Peace, no occupation and surrender for Ukraine! We have followed during the last 10 days the extensive diplomatic talks and demarshes in Geneve, Brussels, Kiev, Uashington and elsewhere in Europe in an effort to draft a plan that would would be totally different from the US 28 point Peace Plan of 20 November. Europe and Kiev reacted again rapidly and are doing everything possible for a new deal on an ceasefire and then a genuine and lasting peace in Ukraine. A peace on the basis of international law, not imposed from the position of strength, not by changing borders with arms, a peace in which Ukraine would retain its sovereignty and territorial integrity, with its own powerful army, with its own will for EU and NATO accession and with the support of its own allies. In short, we need peace and not a new occupation, surrender and humiliation of Ukraine and of Europe. A peace that makes a diference between the victim and aggressor, the latter to be punished and not rewarded.
However, given the Russian geostrategic ambitions to reestablish the former Soviet empire, this peace deal would be extremely difficult, not to say impossible without fighting to the end. If you want peace, prepare for war, this remains the best alternative for a genuine an sustainable peace.
© 2025 Argumentum
