REAL POLITIK NO. 97
1 – 22 DECEMBER 2025
Comments “ flash” on 4 major diplomatic events, only in 1.000 words by the well-known analyst, Grand Master in Diplomacy,
DR. JORGJI KOTE
1.A strategy that could change the world! The New National Security Strategy announced on 5 December sets forth the US geopolitical character and goals. It is a sharp break-up with the previous doctrines. It has shocked the world and especially European states, for with its expected negative effects and the US departure from its previous role as “world policeman” it could change the world. It does casts big doubts on the current world worder and it supports the law of force over the force of international law.
Accordingly, the USA intend to weaken international organizations, the UN and its filiales, WHO, WTO, UNESCO, OSCE and the EU itself. As the prominent journalist states on 10 December in his interview for “ Le Monde” with its care for Russia, and managing China, President Trump intends to divide the world in three zones of influence to the Europe’s detriment.”
Then, this Strategy does not see Europe as an historical ally of common values, principles and interests but mostly as casual clients. Moreover, it intends to strengthen the “ patriotic rezistence” in Europe, i.e. the support for the far right in Europe.
This is why this strategy is considered as the “ last wake up call” for the EU, so that it could show its awareness and submit its own strategy, affirming the transaltantic alliance, the promotion of the best values, principles and traditions of liberal democracy and the rule of law.
2. Europe in Berlin met in its Summit on 15 December there with the presence of 11 EU and UK leaders. It was the expected response to the US 28 point peace plan. It was historic because for the first time in the last 80 years, Europe undertook the responsibility for tis own destinies, with or without the USA. It gave the message to the latter that there can be no peace without Europe neither in Ukraine nor elsewhere. Just after the US – Russia Summit in Alaska on 15 August, the European leaders, including the UK and Norway met in Uashington on 18 August with President Trump, they did also gather this time in Berlin with Trump’s top advisors to react together against the above-mentioned plan, with its own reduced 20 point one. It was a great show of political unity and cohesion.
3. Why an historic compromise?
The compromise reached in the EU Summit in Brussels on 19 December on the shared loan for Ukraine amounting to 90 Billion Euro for the period 2025 – 2026 was historic for three major reasons. First, thanks to such a deal, Ukraine has the necessary financial resources for the next two years and so it may continue its milmitary rezistence and fight. President Zelenski warned the European leaders that “if you do not pay today in Euros, tomorrow you will pay in blood”.
The compromise in Brussels was vital and historic for it averted the worst scenario – the confiscation and use of Rusian assets which was a double-folded blade”. Besides, it avoided objections from France and Germany which were against these shared loans and much in favour of using Russian assets, viewing it also as a pressure against Russia.
And finally, by using these assets, they would not allow the USA and Russia to use them as it appeared in the 28 point plan through the so-called Joint Investment Fund with Ukraine, but also with Russia.
True, this alternative had a few positive aspects as the immediate financing for Ukraine, lifting the burden from the national budgets of EU states and the avoidance of their use by the USA and Russia.
Yet, this did also have more negative effects. First, it would produce a precedent, major legal and security concerns for Belgium but not only. Because in Brussels are deposited the frozen 185 Billion Euro from 210 Billion altogether in Europe. Under these conditions, the Belgian PM, Bart de Wever oppossed vehemently such a project. Belgium was also supported by Italy, Hungaria, Slovakia and Tzechoslovakia. Most importantly, the biggest problem and hindrance in using the Russian assets, especially for Belgium was that the other EU Member States did not offer the necessary financial and security guarantees in the case of these punitive measure against Russia. But failure in this respect would show in public the EU weakeness, adding to the chaos in Brussels during these decisive moments. These negative effects would be also extended to other European states. Likewise, Russia would respond with the confiscation of Belgian and European loans and ivvestments in Russia.
Above all, with regard to security, the confiscation of these assets would serve as a provocation for Moscow to accuse Europe that on one hand it claims peace but on the other it makes provocations with war and stealth of their assets.
Even worse, with ther possible confiscation of its assets it was certain that Russia would put it as a major condition for future peace talks the return of the stolen assets, compromising in this way seriously the peace process and placing the EU in very difficult and embarrasing conditions.
4.Only sharm diplomacy in Athens during the two- day visit by Mrs. Spiropali, Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs in Athens on 16 – 17 December. Actually, the friendy atmosphere and the top level meetings were very pozitive and they bode well for the future of our relations. However, nothing concrete was heard on our problems, even for the pensions agreement, despite the previous media fuss. So, there was “ no meat” in the diplomatic menu of this visit. It was much more a quick review and a soft memorization of our mutual hot problematics, as neighbours, witth several common interests and especially our major goal of ending the EU accession negotiations in 2027. Exactly when Greece would have its EU rotating Presidency.
It is also the burning issue of the Maritime Agreement which in the last 15 years has been standing over our heads like “ Damocles sword” and it is crying out for solution, more than 5 years of the promise to refer it to the Tribunal in the Hague. Nevertheless, let us hope and wish that this visit be a new fresh start and prelude for both our coutries, now on Christmas eve and the New Year, with new hopes and expectations .
© 2025 Argumentum
