REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 43
24 MARCH – 15 APRIL 2023
Grand Master, Dr. Jorgji KOTE « dots the « I’s» and crosses the “t’s » on 5 major events in only 1000 words
1.“Macron’s Chinesation“ This seems to be the case after China’s visit from 6 – 8 April by French President, Macron. A positive event under the current war conditions in Ukraine, China’s major role vis à vis Russia, especially for the prevention of nuclear weapons, the immense interest of European and French business there, due to the European exceptional dependency in several economic and trade areas.
The problems started after Macron’s return, when he appealed for setting up a “ Third european geopolitical Pole”, independent from the USA and China. But, as they say, this proposal “ sends water to the Chinese mill” We all know that China accuses the USA for allegedly imposing their anti-chinese policies on the EU and its Member States; besides, with its 12 – point proposal for peace between Russia and Ukraine, China is pretenting and propagating that it has also Rusia on board, but the hurdle lies in the USA where, and due to their dictate, the EU and some of its Member States cannot breathe without the USA! Likewise, the latest Macron’s proposal endangers the political, economic and military Euro-Atlantic cohesion, particularly now when the USA are committed at the head of Western Alliance to help Ukraine and in the confrontation with China on Taiwan issue. Under these circumstances, to seek to divide Europe from the USA, this is the greatest service for the Chinese geopolitics!
Apparently, Macron is trying to evoke his major objective to assume the European leadership. However, he lacks the politial, economic, military and diplomatic capacities for such a hard mission. Moreover, now he does not have even the necessary majority in the French Parliament. This is why, proposals for a third pole only make him appear more chinese and target of “ bombardments” with criticisms. The opposite was done by the German FM, Baerbock who on 14 April called in Peking for a united western front vis à vis China.
- Escobar in Tirana: US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Gabriel Escobar was in Tirana from 10 – 13 Prill and met with the state, government and the opposition leaders, except for Berisha. Their focus was the 14 May free and fair municipal elections. Not like those of 25 April 2021, which were surprisingly recognized the next morning by the USA, without waiting even the preliminary ODIHR Report. The later qualified them simply “ well organized”; but, as such they were also during the commuist period, but not free and fair.
Actually, Escobar came with three major goals in Tirana related to a new expected political architecture after 14 May. First, to weaken the majority and PM Rama that despite excessive propaganda and euphorism are shaken from serious affairs and scandals; strengthen the wing Basha – Alibeaj in the opposition, perhaps insert it later in a governing coalition with SP, especially after elections 2025. Thus, this weakened group could attract more disappointed members and thirdly, to defactorize the “ non – grata” wing leading it possibly to loss on 14 May and its large-scale abandonment. Finally, keep Ilir Meta “on the stream” for any case, thanks to his political experience and as a “king – maker”. In both cases, a new escalation of steps is expected against Berisha, since the USA cannot tolerate his protagonism anymore. However, our US friends have failed to “make the case” against Berisha!
- 3. We shall pay Becchetti ” like Çeço” as we say in Albania. It is indisputable, 108 million Euro including interest rates. After the final loss in the court process against Mr. Becchetti, former owner of “Agon TV Channel”, the government should pay this amount “ by hook or crook”. Each delay would only increase this value. Attention, we are talking about the Internatinal Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) of the World Bank. We ratified the relevant Convention in November 1991 among 164 states. If we do not pay back this sum, then they will seize our assets abroad. Besides, non-obedience would further erode foreign investors reliability on us. As to any war or exit from ICSID, this si “ cock and bull story”, since this is about the World Bank, with the USA and EU as is largest stakeholders. When I served as interpretor for the first World Bank Mission in Tirana, in March 1991, among the first things they told us was ” Do not make jokes with ICSID!! Besides, there are other courts, so there is no way for us but just to settle the 108 million Euro, sooner, rather then later!
- “A cock reduced to a hench”! This may be said now, one month after the non-signed agreement in Ohri about Kosovo. It is obvious that the USA and the EU have agreed to postpone to Greek calendars Kosovo’s recognition by Serbia and the 5 EU Member States, its membership to the UN and elsewhere. Now on their agenda is only the association of the communes with Serbian majority and the authority of its Church in Kosovo. All these, in the framework of revising the western policies towards Serbia, starting with the armed NATO intervention in 1999 until hitherto. With praises for Belgrade, apologies for its victims and increased pressure over Pristina, in this way “ covering the known bitter facts/factors of the past! This is why one may refer to this new situation for Kosovo with the aphorism ” a cock reduced to a hench”! And yet, PM Rama declares that all these hard compromises and concessions are merely “a piece of cake” for Kosovo and a “hard nut for Serbia”! What a beautiful music for Belgrade ears!
5.No white smoke from Montenegro! Finally, after 31 years, Montenegrin President Dukanovic lost the political battle against the 37 year old Millatovic. However, again many questions are posed, without answers hitherto, associated with suspicions, rumors and political guessings. Would Montenegro continue on the Euro – Atlantic track, or it would side with Serbia and Russia? Will the institutional crisis come to an end with the elections in June, or would they be postponed or even cancelled as some odds are? This is why the election of the new President is seen as a “double–edged knife!” Despite these and other developments, we are all waiting to see the “ white smoke” in Podgorica!
© 2023 Argumentum
