REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 71
1– 16 JUNE 2024
On 3 major diplomatic events briefly&bluntly with only 1.000 words by
DR. JORGJI KOTE
Grand Master in Diplomacy
1.Well abroad, bad at home! This is the case in Albania after the visit by the Italian PM Giorgia Meloni in Shëngjin on 5 June, with the already known results. Despite statements it was a good chance to increase the electoral quotas in the European elections, where Meloni became a great winner. Therefore, PM Rama spoke in Italian, to appeal to the Italian public and voters, especially for “ Brothers of Italy”.
The meeting and the kind words exchanged showed once again that thanks to Realpolitik and some well-known diplomatic steps by PM Rama, Albania enjoys a much better name abroad. Even though we do not have any essential role and we cannot become real actors in the geopolitical game, we have become undoubtedly more active there.The problem is that usually different states and their leaders try to have strong position and echo their domestic policies abroad; in this way, they become more reliable, whereas in Albania the contrary is occurring. At home, our wonds leak blood from crime, corruption, drug, scandals; the greatest evil is among us, among the political forces and even within a party. Hence, without putting our own house in order, the diplomatic gains which are however with plenty of uncertainties for the future and easily forgotten. It is only those who do not want to change this situation that continue to play the old empty geopolitical tune.
2. Far right at the heart of Europe! This happened in the European elections on 6 – 9 June in all the 27 EU Member States. Without dwelling at length since this topic is addressed in details in my article “ Kambana të fuqishme alarmi për Europën” at ARGUMENTUM, the gloomy news is that in the defining elections, the far right gained higher results, whereas liberal and green parties suffered a serious defeat. However, the big concern is that far right parties have advanced considerably at the heart of the EU, its co-founders – France, Germany, Italy, Belgium and in the Netherland, in Austria and elsewhere. Meloni’s “ Brothers of Italy” quadrupled their result of 5 years ago. In France, the National Rally” of Le Pen gained over twice more votes as “ Renaissance” of President Macron. In Germany, AfD ranked second, leaving behind the three governmental coalition parties led by the social-dedmocrats of Olaf Scholz. The greatest concern here is that this far right threatens to come to power in France right this month, next autumn or even earlier in Germany, in Austria and Belgium; this radical right of the Eu threatens seriously the liberal democracy an the rule of law, since the far right and far left cannot cohabitate with moderate traditional parties and to safeguard the present Europe.
3. If you want peace, be prepared for war!
This top level international political and diplomatic week was dedicated almost entirely to the military and economic support for Ukraine, in its heroic struggle to drive out and win over ther Russian aggressor. The visits by President Zelenski in some European capitals, the Donors’ Conference for the reconstruction of Ukraine in Berlin on 10 – 11 June, the Meeting of NATO Defence Ministers on 12 June, the G7 Summit in Pulia, Italy with the presence, prayers an address by Pope Francis and leaders of some other big states and finally the Peace Conference in Luzern Swizerland on 15/16 June talk louder than words. The major theme there was Ukraine, its support and tightening measures and sanctions against Russia. With the already known results, the 50 Billion Euro package from interest percentages of Russian assets in Europe, delivery of air and missile defence systems, new US sanctions against 300 foreign persons and companies involved with Russian business, the security agreement between US and Ukraine, as a cursor of its membership to NATO and many others.
These aids are extremely useful in the current conditions when Russia is on the point of launching a new offensive, attacking and occupying partially and hopefully temporarily few strategic areas and towns. When Ukraine terribly needs shells, weapons, missile protection systems in order to restore the previous situation and create the premises for a new offensive until its victory in the war.
This growing western support is producing instant effects, especially after the delivery of the belated US package of 61 Billion Dollars and aids from other western states.
The week ended up with the Peace Confeence in Luzern, Switzerland. True, a well-wishing initiative but which in the current circumstances in the battle field was a nonstarter. Neither was new the fact that 80 states supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The UN before had also voted a resolution with 144 states pro Ukrain. Actually, there were even before such peace initiatives and prosals but without results; they served merely the image and political domestic and foreign consumption. All have remained in paper. Therefore, it would be better that instead of them to appoint international negotiators and mediators and on the basis of their “crisis diplomacy” they would come with concrete proposals.
Because due to the essential reasons mentioned below only for peace one cannot talk now there. Above all, Ukraine does not have the military supremacy to make Russia sit down in the negotiation table, but with Ukraine dictating the rules of the game and not Russia; hence to force Putin to accept all terms&conditions, starting with the withdrawal from occupied territories and granting garanties that it would not undertake similiar actions against the sovereignty of other states. But this is very far from the reality on the ground, when Putin made it crystal clear even on 14 June with his absurd conditions for a ceasefire that he would not step back until he achieves its geopolitical goal and beyond, defying directly NATO and the West.
Accordingly, such events are fruitless, moreover without the presence of Russia and China and with the indiference or unclear positions by India, Brasil, Argentine, Saudi Arabia and other states with impact on this issue.
Finally, peace in Ukraine can be achieved only through “ war diplomacy” as the prominent French historian N.Terzer mentions.
So, forget beautiful Luzern and focus on implementing the pledges made in Berlin, Brussels and Pulia. With the well-known moto which sounds more actual than ever today: “if you want peace, prepare for war!”
