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Anti-gylenism and neo-ottomanism! Peace, yes, but how! A cold jubilee! A good European journey!
REAL POLITIK FLASH NO. 77
1 – 16 TETOR 2024
With “ flash” comments on the 4 major events in only 1000 words by the well-known analyst,
DR. JORGJI KOTE
Grand Master in Diplomacy
1.Anti-gylenism and neo-ottomanism was the main goal of Turkish President Erdogan’s visit in Tirana on 11 October and then in Belgrade. It was undoubtedly an event of special significance for strengthening the multifaceted cooperation with Turkey. The visit was OK, agreements were signed, Turkey gave us suicide drones, with friendly statements and the Mosque of Namasgja, the largest in Western Balkans was inaugurated. Despite the controversies, the positions and statements by PM Rama were correct from all political, diplomatic and human aspects. As to the critical remarks why Erdogan launched political attacks against another country from a mosque or for some other delicate moments of division of state from religion, well, it is neither in our tradition and not diplomatic to impose one will especially on a leader of such a great and friendly state as Turkey when he comes in your house. Besides, it is supposed that he should know himself better the boundaries of his own statements and positions. Most importantly, these are things which can be overcome with the bilateral will of the parties in the future, so no need for quarrels with Turkey, in particular.
Naturally, President Erdogan is in his own right to demand the avoidance of gylenism from each cell of political, economic and cultural life and to apply the well-known doctrine of neo-ottomanism in the Balkans. To this end, he is being focused among others through religious diplomacy, i.e. draw on massive sympathy in the Balkans through building mosques and religious cults. A field with a great human sensitiviness and with great success chances. The task of our diplomacy is to be cautious in the relations with Turkey so that ” the meat be baked but the peg not burned” as we say in Albania. Certainly, “this is easily said than done”.
2. Peace, yes, but how? This is the question posed after the European tour of Ukraine’s President Zelenski, during which he attended the Third South Eastern European Summit in Zagreb and the meetings with his counterparts in Rome, Vatican, London, Paris and Berlin. A sort of consolation after the postponed Summit in Germany due to the cancelation of President Biden’s presence there. Much is being spoken for his alleged plan to end the war and achieve peace in the diplomatic tables. However, until now they have seen only an outline of the alleged peace plan but without concrete elements. He has also stated that the summit would take place by the end of the year. But this is not real, since the USA will be in the transition stage; besides, no one, not even Zelenski knows what sort of peace is meant; a peace by handing over the annexed Eastern Ukraine, the occupied territories in Kursk, by giving up their intention of EU and NATO accession or in the battle field. Otherwise, a different peace can turn into surrender, capitulation, occupation or reduced to Russia’s mercy.
3. A cold jubilee was in fact the Tenth Anniversary of the Berlin Process which was commemorated on 14 October in Berlin with the 6 Western Balkan leaders and the EU Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen at the invitation by the German Chancelor, Olaf Scholz. Without champagne, without substantial achievements, without spirit, unlike we hoped ten years ago when Chancelor Merkel launched this Process. No acceleration but with delays and vetos in our course to EU Accession. Despite some useful economic and trade initiatives, especially the WB Common Market, roaming and students’ exchange programs, insufficient as they are, Berlin has failed to help and impact the necessary SPIRIT of approachment, conciliation and cooperation among the countries of the region, especially between Serbia and Kosovo and even within each country – the opposition, interest groups, media and civil society. Hence the consolation in this case was Chancelor Scholz’s expressed hope that their EU accession won’t take 10 years as till now. But even that remains an expectation in the air. Moreover that nothing new may be expected in the region in upcoming months; Kosova will go to polls in February, Albania in May, Germany itself in September amidst several incertainties caused by the rising right – wing extremism there. Besides, Chancelor Scholz and President Macron, the two major EU leaders and promotors of the Berlin Process are extremely weak after the severe electoral blows in the most recent local, national and European elections; due to that, their political reliability has fallen to dramatic levels.
4. A good European journey! More than two years after the official opening of the EU Accession negotiations, the Second Inter- Governmental Conference, which marked also the opening of ngotiations for the first cluster of chapters” Fundamentals” was held in Luxembourg on 15 October. An important although delayed event, for which the Negotiator’s team, the Foreign Ministry, the Assembly and its National Integration Committee and the entities invoved in this historic process dererve the best congratulations.
Now the problem is that after 10 years as a candidate country, we should do the utmost to avoid new delays and hindrances, so that we could edge closer to the very difficult target of accession in the year 2030.
Here, apart from the well-known problems and concerns that may come to surface during these negotiations, the most serious challenge that it does not entirely depend on us is the possibility of another veto until the end of this process.
Since it is impossible to lift it, our diplomacy has to work hard so that even when this veto is not lifted by the EU, at least it should apply only at the final stage of negotiations but not in each cluster as hitherto.
Finally, nevertheless, the decisive role for the progress of our negotiations relies on the internal factor and the successful implementation of our major reforms. But this requires that the laws, acts and our actions shoud not run contrary to the EU spirit and letters as it has happened in some cases but stick to them. True, until now we have “crossed the river without being wet”, but we may fail when it comes to the clusters; because Brussels and the 26 other capitals have many tricks and means to tell us “ Stop” when they see that we are getting out of European rails, without excluding even the “ “Damocles sword” – the veto.
© 2024 Argumentum
