REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 78
17 – 31 OCTOBER 2024
With “ flash” comments on the 4 major events in only 1000 words by the well-known analyst,
DR. JORGJI KOTE
Grand Master in Diplomacy
1.Summit of EU weakness was the one held in Brussels on 16 – 18 October. Apart from aids for Ukraine, it was all about the solution of emigration crisis. Amidst heated debates and discourses that the new Italian – Albanian model of Gjadri has also produced. However, the original enthusiasm on this project to find the solution outside the EU faced many objections, especially among the largest EU Member States, as France, Germany, Spain, Poland and others.
It was concluded that Meloni – Rama Pact is not a lasting solution. It may to some extent facilitate the crisis and its effects, transfering them beyond the EU, but It could produce other pressing concerns; specifically regarding the protection of human rights and freedoms of asylum seekers and their treatment.
Moreover, the Meloni – Rama Pact is strongly opposed even in Rome and Tirana by the opposition, the civil society, the judiciary and other actors. Thus, it is likely to be part of the problem and not the solution. In short, this model solves nothing and on the other hand it shows the EU weakenesses.
2. Leyen back in the Balkans! The President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen made her first tour in the Western Balkans during 23 – 25 October 2024, after being reconfirmed in her top post. The results of this European tour are well-known. Due to the lack of true progress and growing geopolitical pressure to enlargen to the Western Balkans, mainly due to the Russian aggresion, the EU and Von der Leyen are seeking to be in good terms with the region, with hopes, expectations, promises and other transition forms until the accession day comes but which no one knows when.
The EU treated Albania with the “ Turkish delight” i.e. the opening of the first cluster of negotiations, the others the New Economic Growth Plan and the endless reform agenda with many dificulties in their implementation. Likewise, The EU is treating Kosovo and Serbia with ” stick” and carrot” for the implementation of Ohrid Agreement, as an unnegotiable condition. But, on the other hand, von der Leyen made it clear with a soft EU language and without any concrete deadline that the EU accession will depend on the dynamics and the further progress in the region with reforms and meeting their domestic challenges. These and other “ democratic deficits” are also reflected in the Progress Reports for the 6 states published on 30 October.
3. A new anti-Western wall! On 22 – 24 October, Kazan hosted the BRICS Summit under the Russian Presidency. Originally, BRICS as its initials indicate included Brasil, Russia, India and China; then it was joined by South Africa, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and others. It is another opposite alternative to G7 and G 20. It does also include countries with liberal democracy as India, Brasil, South Africa, which are also allies to the USA and the West. But now they have chosen provisional instead of permanent alliances, placing the geopolitical interests over Western values and principles. Much is spoken and written on this Summit at ARGUMENTUM as well; therefore, here we need to stress here that this Summit was a demonstration of force and image by Putin against the West. Showing that he is not isolated and weakened by the war and the world, even not in the whole West, defying the latter openly!
The presence of more than 20 heads of states and governments, starting with the Chinese President, the Indian Premier and other leaders of large states and the images forwarded from Kazan were a genuine propaganda show for Rusia and Putin. Moreover, the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres went to Kazan where he shook hands with Putin, despite the arrest warrant against him by the Tribunal in the Hague; provoking debates within the Alliance for his act. However, Guterres justified his shake of hands with Putin as “ an operational necessity” Neither could he avoid that trip, for he was invited by many states that carry weight in the UN, including the Security Council. Accordingly, it is not so important when and to what extend BRICS attains its goals. Now it is clear that BRICS represents a serious challenge for the West and its fundamental values! It accounts for 1/3 of the World GDP and 45 per cent of its population and it has become very attractive. It intends to establish a new multipolar order and world, with not a single superpower ruling. This is a great challenge for the West apart from the Rusian aggression against the Ukraine and the crisis in the Middle East. Thus, BRICS is becoming a new great divisive wall, apparently worse than the Berlin Wall which was pulled down exactly 35 years ago!
4. A joint but divided Committee! The 18th Joint Session of the Stabilization&Association Committee of EU Parliament and the Delegation of Albania’s Assembly was held in Tirana on 29 – 30 October 2024. These meetings started in 1998 when the same process was launched; I know how it works for I have followed it very actively from that year on as a diplomat in our Mission to the EU in Brussels, then in Berlin, Tirana and back again in Brussels until the recent years. In fact, in the last 10 years the weight and the role of this joint parliamentary forum, the most important of its sort has considerably declined. This is due to the frequent changes in its leadership and composition and to the fact that our leaders now meet oftenly their EU counterparts in person in Tirana, in Brussels, Strasbourg and in all EU capitals, as Albania is an aspiring state. Besides, most members of the EU Parliament Committee have little knowledge on Albania and its burning themes. Therefore, what matters for official Tirana are President Biden and Secretary Blinken, Von der Leyen, Scholz, Macron, Rutte, Melon, Erdogan… Among others, this meeting was “ stolen” by the presence of Mr. Fredi Beleri; as we have previously written, last year, from elected Mayor of Himara, he was sent in prison and now he came back to Tirana as a Europarlamentarian. Finally, the Joint Committee proved to be more divided than ever; it failed to agree on a joint document due to irreconciliable disagreements between the ruling Party and the opposition.
© 2024 Argumentum
