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The new EU with old challenges! Ambulant Community! Empty diplomatic shuttle!
REAL POLITIK NO. 79
1 – 15 NOVEMBER 2024
With “ flash” comments on the 4 major events in only 1000 words by the well-known analyst,
DR. JORGJI KOTE
Grand Master in Diplomacy
1.Trump shook the world politics with his landsliding and multidimensional victory on 5th November! He succeeded to nullify all media forecasts, polls, surveys, the political experts and analists and even Hollywood stars! With a large difference of popular votes, 312 electors from 270 necessary; he conquered the Senate, the Representative House and the seven swing states! This was the first major component that shows why and how did Trump shake the US and world politics. A victory which exposed the US President, the Vice President and the democrats. The latter, instead of calming themselves down and making the necessary analysis with cold – blooded realism are seeking to put the blame of the defeat to others, up to Hollivood and even to Tailor Swift! Certainly, the greatest Trump political shock is due to the new paradigm shift it will introduce after he would be installed in the White House. The great states and international organizations have already started to make political calculations and on that basis the elaboration and adoption of the relevant political, diplomatic, economic, military and institutional analyses: the EU and NATO with their Member States, China, Russia, BRICS, the UN and its filiales which as it is known are not after Trump’s heart. There are many questions asked, fear, uncertainties and ambiguities. However, to avoid occasional abusals, it is wise for us all to wait until the new US government is in place and they submit the relevant strategic programs and documents. Therefore, no panic and no haste please!
2. Ambulant Community, this is how it is reduced the European Political Community ( EPC) which was launched with glamour and pump over two years ago by the French President Macron. From the great promises we have only five summits till now, the latest held in Budapest on 7 November and the next one will be in Tirana next year. A Comunity without a seat, address, managing structures, without a mission, without any decision or even a press briefing and many other “ without”. And, if the EPC continues like this, as the odds are, then the predictions by analysts that it would turn into a governmental ministerial forum may come true. Or it will continue to function under the same summit format, looking much more as an ambulant community organized in thematic or tourist tours, picnics/esccursions, under the moto “talk and eating” or into a top diplomatic forum but with the lowest political, diplomatic and mediatic echo and impact.
3. The new EU with old challenges,During 4 – 12 November, at the EU Parliament seat in Strasbourg were held special hearing sessions with the 27 EU Commissioners proposed by their President Ursula von der Leyen who presented their programs and responded to hundreds of questions by the EU Parliamentarians. All went well, i.e. without any objection or refusal. It means that on 1st December, the EU Commission and Council will start their 5 year term in office with mostly new faces but some old ones as well, including its President.
This is why they are talking about EU with new leaders, programs and promises. However, what it strikes one’s attention are the pressing ideas, challenges and problems crying out for solution. Moreover, that now at the White House won’t be a Euro-Atlantic President like Biden. Meanwhile, the war of Rusia against Ukraine is entering on its fourth year, whereas the violent conflict in Middle East is escalating without any peace or even a ceasefire in view. Neither is the Balkans finding peace even after 12 years of the dialogue Belgrade– Pristina facilitated by the EU, amidst even larger threats. The EU Enlargement is being kept alive mainly with euphoric swears and pledges but far away from the realities for the target year 2030; perhaps without understanding that alone the geopolitical needs cannot solve problems, moreover when all the countries in the region, including Albania, albeit their progress are encountering hot problematics. Meanwhile, France is hardly holding on its leg whereas Germany will go to the polls on 23 February 2025, with uncertainties for the new governing coalition whose establishment could take months. When the right extreme is trying to expand the political geography after Italy, the Netherlands, Austria and Sweden to France, Germany, Spain and elsewhere.
4. Empty shuttle diplomacy are in fact the meetings between the chief negotiators of Belgrade and Pristina in Brussels also during this time. Many statements, assertions and promises; but they end up as failed shuttle diplomacy, since both chief negotiators return home with empty hands. As we have previously noted, this dialogue is indeed as we say in Albania “ dead but not buried”. The diplomatic moves and tours back and forth to Brussels are made just to pass the time, to justify Lajçak’s high salary and to keep the status quo there. Nothing more nothing less, at least until the new teams and negotiators will be appointed and enter their offices in Washington and in Brussels; when elections are over in Kosovo on 9 February and in Germany on 23 February with their governments in place.
Then we have to wait until the new strategy of the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade is fixed. Which in practical terms could occur in mid 2025, even though it is hard to predict any essential change and evenless a «breakthrough ».
Therefore, until that time, politics in Kosovo and its leadership should reflect, elaborate various versions and alternatives designed to emerge as rapidly as possible and without any colateral damage from the cross road where Pristina is. Most importantly, each careful step and in coordination with our western allies would help Kosovo to lift the EU punitive measures, increase new recognitions and accession to international organizations which are in a deadlock. Only in this way Kosovo may become a genuine functional state flourishing in sustainable prosperity, security, safety and democracy. So, enough with moralizations and principles beyond the realpolitics and world diplomacy, moreover when unlike 15 years ago, Kosovo is not any more on the western top agenda. Now this agenda is full with many hotspots that have a priority. So, politics in Pristina should try to become part of the solution and not of the problem, so that our allies do not point anymore their finger on Kosovo.
© 2024 Argumentum
