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REAL POLITIK NO. 112
1 – 31 OCTOBER
“ Flash” Comments on 4 major diplomatic events with only 1.000 words by the well-known analist,
DR. Jorgji KOTE
1.Due to need and not will!!
The EU Council adopted on 15 October the Commission’s proposal for the gradual integration of Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova. This implies different bonuses and benefits for candidate countries, when they advance in closing the clusters of accession negotiations, safeguard clauses for new members for a 15 year long period, no vote and veto right, no commissioner, the presence as observer in a political forum and others. Thus, the EU packs this chapter up much more due to the need than the will. We say this since on one hand the electorates in the EU Member States do not even want to hear the word “ enlargment”; moreover that next year 10 EU countries will head to the polls and especially in Spain, France and Poland, where the far right intends to come to power, putting an end to the EU and its enlargement as well. But, on the other hand, the EU is facing the danger of Russian influence in candidate states, if together with its “ stick the EU do not offer some carrots” to them as well. Thus, the EU accomdates both these extreme ends.
2. From inside first, then from outside!
On 22 October, Montenegro hosted in Budva the Summit of Berlin Process for Western Balkans, which this year is chaired by Podgorica. A nice coincidence since Monentegro is the first and the only country likely to join the EU in 2028. At this Summit, Chancellor Merz told openly to Western Balkan leaders that it is they who have this process in their hands; that albeit the significance of geopolitics that helps the process, the decisive factor are the reforms from within and in more cocnrete terms the rule of law, the fight against crime and corruption and others. This was the proper signal in the due time, in view of avoiding any untimely hope and expectation, for any short cut in the accession process for candidate states as dictated by geopolitics. Like in the EU Coucil, on 15 October, in Budva as well on 22 October the EU leaders made it clear that when it comes to the rule of law, fight against crime and corruption and the inpunity of senior officials, the “ Achilles heel” for Albania, the EU does not make concessions and does not give in even an inch. Let us wish that our leaders and Prime Minister Rama, in particular have heard this message well and will reflect it in their practical work.
3. The broken image and mirror! Following the large-scale peaceful protests, Prime Minister Rama and his Socialist Party have taken harsh political and administrative measures, especially with their “ loyal presence and mirrors”; whereas last week they tightened the anti-protest precautions, although they run contrary to the Constitutional clause on the right to assemble peacefully. However, the problem for the Prime Minister and his Socialist Party is more serious than they can imagine. It has to do above all with Edi Rama’s public image and perception. His past image as a liberal artist and a moderate politician, an experienced european and a favourite for the West, an actor/factor of stability is shattered for ever. The protests in the last 5 months, the clashes between the students with the brutal police and the bad management of this grave situation, much worse than the one by the red nomenclature in the end of 80s have taken off fear from the folks; they have unasked and have pulled down the fasades of his governance. But political and cosmetic fasades, masks, photos and futurism have been the core of his strong hand rule. Whereas the contents, substance and concrete results are of secondary and terciary importance for PM Rama.
4. Peace in Ukraine aas wishful thinking!! Even during this month much was spoken and written on the US, Russian and Ukraninian diplomatic efforts to sit down in the table of negotiations for a peace deal.For the US side these efforts have been further intensified on the eve of the midterm elections on 3 November for the Congress; mostly to give the idea that President Trump is doing the utmost to strike a peace deal between Rusia and Ukraine. The latter is certainly in its own right to demand and have peace; moreover that this winter would be extremely cold and hard for the population there, with severe Russian bombardments against the ukranian energy, digital and heating infrastructure. On its own part, Russia does not have any genuine interest for ceasefire and peace there; however, in order to not to spoil the mood qnd to remain in friendly terms with his most recent ally, President Trump, Putin is showing off to be flexible, cautious and wise expressing his readiness in principle for such peace efforts but undermining them in practice.
Yet, as we have underlined before, due to the so-called “ Bermuda triangle” it is impossible to have genuine peace in Ukraine, i.e. with the preservation of its own sovereignty and territoial integrity. But Russia wants the contrary, i.e. a Ukraine without Donbas, without NATO, without army, without European security guarantees and forces; but such a peace would simply be a new surrender or occupation for Ukraine; meanwhile, the USA and President Trump have a keen interest mostly to ensure a good commercial deal, ignoring Putin’s true geopolitical goal, restablishment of the tzarist or Sovjet Union Empire. Both, Trump and Putin are also trying to put aside the EU and its Member States that are affected by the war there. Actually what is occuring there proves this projection. At a time when Russia expresses its readiness for a peace deal, it is escalating its bombardments against Kyev and its energy infrstructure, so that it would kneel it down on the eve of this harsh winter. This is why the current peace diplomatic demarshes are just as they say in football “moves without ball”. Their effect would be minimal and reduced let us say to an exchange of prisoners, a partial ceasefire for some days and that would be all. Let us emphasize it again and again, Peace in Ukraine can be achieved only through the “ war diplomacy” by deterring Russia and providing the necessary support for Kyev. Everything else is empty words and wishful thinking.
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