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Realpolitik “ flash” No. 16
18 – 31 JANUARY 2022
EXCLUSIVELY at ARGUMENTUM, the renowned diplomat& analyst, “ dots the i’s and crosses the t’s” on 4 major events in only 1000 words
Dr. JORGJI KOTE
1.Biden’s trust fell down right from its first year as President. Polls show his popularity fall to 42 per cent, the lowest figure after his predecessor, Trump. Moreover, even within democrats, from 95 per cent in last March, now only 76 per cent like him. First polls were positive, since President Biden kept electoral promises. The downward trend started in the second half of last year; due to his weak leadership in managing the situation with COVID – 19, which continues to work havoc; the further aggravation of the domestic political climate instead of promised approachment and reconciliation, failure to enact some essential laws and other factors. The chaotic withdraw of US troops and the termination of its military presence in Afghanistan damaged his image evenmore.
This is a bad omen ahead of midterm elections in November. The democrats and Biden could suffer loses there, making more gloomy the prospects of the presidential elections 2024. Finally, of vital importance in this respect will be the US stance towards Russia in the heat of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
2.A field with two goalposts! Finally, also official Skopie did realize that it is also a player in the field to lift the bulgarian veto. Otherwise, if the negotiations “match” continues in the Bulgarian goalpost, then as we say in Albania they would not start even on 36 August! On 18 January, Petkov, the new Bulgarian Premier visited Skopie and on 25 January the two governments met in Sofia and agreed to set up five joint working groups incorporating all major domains. They also agreed to see their results within 6 months at the latest. However, if in these four fields something can be reached, the most difficult issues remain those of the Macedonian language, history and identity; due to their complex and delicate nature and the extremely high public sensitiviness in both countries. No promise was made regarding a quick consensus in this regard, which could pave the way to the opening of negotiations. Actually, both governments and countries find it very difficult to proceed in these “ undermined fields” because of their fragile governing coalitions, tough opposition from the centre and far right and others. What is even worse, despite the empty rhetorics and shuttle diplomacy, even Washinton, Brussels, Paris, Berlin and other “big shots” cannot dictate their will on this issue over Sofia.
This is why our previous warning that the negotiations cannot start at least until June holds true. Therefore, our government should start lobbying so that the EU starts negotiations with Albania in October or December. Well, this is hard, since many EU member states are not willing. With their diplomatic elegance they speak about solidarity, although it is common knowledge that each country’ assessment depends on its merits; which not all in the EU are convinced that we have, although formally speaking we have met the relevant conditions. This maybe a typical slow diplomatic “NO” for the time being.
- EU fate in Paris! Yes, EU has 27 member states, yet, it highly depends on the franco- german axis. If one of them fails, then the whole EU balance is at stake. But, why France this year? Because until June it will have the EU rotating presidency, in exceptional domestic and geopolitical circumstances. Most importantly, there will be the new presidential elections this April and the parliamentary ones in June. Till now the odds are in favour of Macron. He will be facing two tough far right candidates with many power claims: Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour. The others and particularly those from the left are simply “ garniture” Macron’s victory will also be a triumph for the EU, eventhough he will demand fundamental EU reforms. But, if either from the nationalists would win, then the EU will undergo tremendous changes, both in form and format. Since Marine Le Pen describes the EU as incarnating “the worst evils of socialism and liberalism” This is why the fate of both Brussels and the EU will be decided in April in Paris.
- The hour of truth! All the eyes of the world are now cast to Moscow and Washington. After the responses by the White House and NATO, it is expected the decision by President Putin on the previous Russian demads. The Alliance finds itself in a much more difficult position than 30 years ago, both politically and militarily. The US itself is amidst confrontations, a considerable decline of trust on democracy and President Biden; NATO is split and in some of its members there is an escalation of populist and natinalistic forces demanding power. Their passive attitudes in Lybia, Siria and especialy the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer have tarnished the image of USA an the EU. Meanwhile, Russia has considerably raised its political and military stakes. If it is not defining in the area of international relations worldwide, it is very dangerous when it comes to europan security. Basically, because unlike 30 years ago, Russia is in a close alliance with China; this poses an herculain challenge for the West in each aspect. Now, Russia is demanding to be on equal footing with the USA in the world stage and ignore the EU; then, it wants to reset the European security architecture. Under these conditions, the Alliance determination for action is to be saluted. But how effective would it be in the case of a military invasion of Ukraine, this remains to be seen. Because even the sanctions cannot be taken for granted; moreover that even within its ranks there is opposition. Justified in a way, since the sanctions hitherto have not been productive. When it comes to the decisive military might, that remains to be seen. What the West can do for certain effectively is diplomacy and dialogue with Russia, apart from military preparation for the worst case. Diplomacy does not mean surrender, on the opposite. Yet, it cannot be done only with compositons, reciting or cliche affirmations. It needs a lot of phantasy and creativeness, folowing the model of Ping Pong diplomacy 50 years ago launched by emblematic Kisinger. To avoid war, for if it breaks out, as Churcill used to say, no one is in command there.
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