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Realpolitik “ flash” No. 18
17 FEBRUARY – 3 March 2022
EXCLUSIVELY at ARGUMENTUM,
DR. JORGJI KOTE, a renowned diplomatic analyst, “ dots the i’s and crosses the t’s” on the major events related to the Russian aggression against Ukraine in only 1000 words
- Putin undermined the largest preventive diplomacy of the Western Alliance in the last 30 years! There remained no leader and Foreign Minister of the bigest powers without going to Moscow, talking at length and calling President Putin/FM Lavrov, apart from several forums/summits. It was undoubtedly among the rarest examples of the “ crisis, shuttle and phone diplomacy” until the last minute. Unfortunately, Putin ignored them. For the first time after 1991 Russia was not represented in the prestigious international Security Confeence in Munich on 20 February. Preventive diplomacy failed, because it was undermined by Russia. For, there can be no diplomacy on earth that can be successful when the will from ther side is lacking. Or when the latter uses diplomacy just to “wash the mouth” as a “ fig leaf” or to gain time and hide the real intentions.
- The Force of the law above the Law of the force is on the top of the agenda of international relations. In the last 75 years, thanks to the establishment of its multilateral system, with UN at the head and other important organizations, the use of force which has prevailed in the periods of the balance of powers until he World War II came almost to an end; when the strongest used his political, economic and military force against the weaker, violating international regulatins and law. Lack of peace, security and bloody conflicts had their source exactly in the abuse with the use of force by bigger states; however, the balances of power change continuously, endangering any prospect of peace and prosperity. Therefore, in the last 75 years it is international law that is applied, resolving disagreements and conflicts in a peaceful way, through diplomatic channels and international courts, but not through violence and arms.
The force of international law is safeguarded by the UN Charter, a number of well-known international treaties and conventions, which ensure the sovereignty and territorial integrity of each state, human rights and and fundamental freedoms and others. Russia claims without any reliable basis that the West has violated international law with its military interventions in Kosovo, Lybia, Siria, Iraq and elswhere. Although the situation in Ukraine cannot be compared at all with those countries and Kosovo, in particular, where there was genocice and crimes against humanity committted, Russia, moreover as a permanent member of the UN Security Council could very well have lodged its complaints in the proper international fora and institutions against alleged violators but not violate international law. For the sake of truth, Russia has been very selective in terms of international law, referring to when it was beneficial and ignoring it when it spoils its “ geo- political mood”.
- 10 geopolitical miscalculations with catastrophic costs for Ukraine, Europe and Russia were made by Putin. Both at home and abroad, for today and tomorrow. His mistakes remind us of Bonaparte, who after the invasion of Spain was trying to justify himself saying that after all he had not committed any crime; but the great Tallerand gave him with great concern the emblematic answer “ No, Your Majesty, it is even worse, you have committed a mistake”.
As President Biden spoke with pathos in his speech on the State to Nation on 1st of March “ Putin miscalculated badly, he does not know what’s coming, he was wrong, we are ready, we are united”
Putin’s mistakes start with his unrealistic and exaggerated belief related to the rifts, problems and lack of cohesion on various aspects within the Western Alliance, also an effet of several crisis which it has gone through. Nevertheless, one who knows the Western history may quickly realize that albeit debates and divisions, as democratic states and organizations due also to the clash of interests, when it comes to protect the fundamental values and principles, the West comes together; moreover, the crisis make them even stronger, which is also case now. Both NATO and the EU have made epochal moves and actions which were unthinkable only a few months ago.
The next miscalculation is the underestimation of the extent of sanctions, thinking that Moscow could withstand them as hitherto. However, Putin did not think it well that the sanctions this time would be so tough that very soon they would work havoc on Russia. He has not even taken account of their large unprecedented variety, in every area, including the restrictions/exemption from the international payment system “SWIFT ” which is considered as a “financial atom bomb” The other mistake is the under-estimation of the tremendous international solidarity and the staunch support by the western institutions to Ukraine; in all forms – clothes, foods, shelter, up to billions of financial aids and others.
The next mistake was the rushed assessment of the stances and expectations from some big states, as Germany, with many “ Putin Verstehers” or Russian lobbying. But, on 27 February, Bundestag made a “ revolution” in the German foreign policy, breaking away with pacifism; it decided historically to deliver weapons to Ukraine and double its defence capacities. Most importantly, Berlin gave up the operation of the gigandic “ Nord Stream” with Russia.
Then, Putin underrated the immense moral and military might of the brave Ukrainian people, who is displaying its best against the worst. Putin forgot that Ukraine 2022 has advanced a lot compared to 2014 also in the military field. The Russian military “Blitz” in Ukraine failed and despite the further dinamics of the events, Russia will find it extremely hard even in this aspect; as to the moral, political, public aspect and image, they are down on the ground! The 141 votes in the UN General Assembly in favour of Putin’s indictment by the International Criminal Court is the latest solid proof of his multi-faceted condemnation. Besides, even the assessment of the response from the Russian people by at large may be erroneous following the inter-actions of the above-mentioned acors/factors. The other grave mistake is the over-estimation of the force and armament of the Russian army. Actually, its moral and motivation cannot be high, since there is no clear reason for the war there. Finally, Putin and Lavrov make a mistake by mentioning the atom/nuclear weapons. Attention, do not “ play with them” because the USA, France and UK do also possess them.
© 2022 Argumentum
