Realpolitik “ Flash” No. 19
15 – 31 March 2022
EXCLUSIVELY at ARGUMENTUM,
DR. JORGJI KOTE, a renowned diplomatic analyst, “ dots the i’s and crosses the t’s” on the 5 major events in only 1000 words
1.Biden “Cements” Western Union! Yes, this maybe said with ”full mouth” after three summits held in Brussels on 25 March – G-7, EU and NATO; with the physical presence of US President Joe Biden and his well-known messages. What a deep contrast with 5 years ago when his predecessor, Trump was in Brussels! Under the US leadership, the West has been united more than never before in the last 30 years. With an unwavering unity and determination to defend at any cost the democratic fundamental values and principles! This is why it is ironically mentioned that Putin with this absurd aggression “did an honour to the West”; the latter is drawing plenty of lessons from its mistakes and delays vis à vis Russia. In fact, Putin committed a terrible geopolitical mistake by trying to make use and encourage the drifts within the Alliance in Ukraine. But, as the folk saying goes “ Sow the wind and reap the whirlwind”
2. The West “Storms” Putin! This is the major historical outcome of the Western Unity vis à vis the 10 Putin’s strategic mistakes mentioned earlier in this section. While “storming” Russia with a catalogue and “arsenal” of unprecedented measures and sanctions, which will “work havoc” to Russia. There are exactly 600 sanctions applied against Russia, one mre severe than the other from 60 in 2014! Although they have already started, their damaging effects will be felt a little later and much more heavily in the everyday life in Russia. Thereore, President Biden was right to underline that “ Putin does not know what is coming for him”! In fact, Putin’s “Star” has started its own downset; he is internationally isolated, exempted from the Council of Europe and maybe later from G-20, condamned by a Resolution of the UN General Asssembly with an historic number of 141 votes and by the International Court of Justice in the Hague! This aggression is also accompanied with large – scale protests and demonstrations worldwide and so on. Then, what else is needed to mark the end of the Russian army, which is bein demythized in Ukriane by the daring spirit and heroism of its army and the unheard of solidarity with its people?
3. “ A Pyrrhic Vicory? So, then what remains for Russia and Putin is only a possible military victory, thanks to its supremacy in number and armaments. But even its army it is stuck in the mud. It failed to capture Kyiev and occupy any big city, it has faced a tough resistance with huge losses in other regions, 8 of its superior commandants were killed; likewise, it has encountered many problems related to supply with weapons, petrol, foods, munition, lack of motivation in war and so on. Now it is being reorganized in order to divide Ukraine in two, since its whole occupation has failed, as an dangerous adventure warned much earlier. Accordingly, whatever would happen in the battlefield, as the odds are, even in the military aspect in the best case there would be a only “ Pyrrhic victory” for Russia.
4. Many Mediators, but Little Mediation in the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade. It has stuck for months on end. Mostly words, promises, with “ if ands and buts”, but very little is moving. The opposite is occurring with the mediators for Western Balkans and this dialogue. Apart from Lajçak and Escobar, now there is also a German and British mediator; quite recently, even the General Assembly the Council of Europe has nominated its own mediator, the former Greek Chief Diplomat, Mrs. Bakoyannis. A full team with 5 mediators, three from states that do not recognize Kosovo! A year ago, just at this seciton, when the future appointment of other mediators was made known, we mentioned the folk saying “ Many Cooks Spoil the Broth” However, the “ broth” is not there yet, let alone its quality!. This is why it is high time that without additional mediators, both the EU and USA would sit down “cross-legged”, define a final and firm agenda, step up their pressure on both sides, but no treating them “ one of the mom and the other of the step-mother” so that the dialogue continues with high intensity. Otherwise, mediators will come and go, they may also be changed, but the same old story of the last 11 years will be repeated, again with only “ good words but stones in the basket” The Russian agression against Ukraine and its defiance of the West in general is a strong appeal for practical results and not empty “shuttle diplomacy”.
5. Diplomatic dilentatism! We refer to Kosovo’s most recent demand for NATO membership and to thee EU due to the Russian danger. As expected, It was instantly rejected, certainly with a diplomatic language. Ok, each state and its diplomacy, including Kosovo should try and benefit from new situations, but within the possibilities, without creating a boomerang and through confidential diplomatic channels. Because, it is clear that Kosovo’s membership to NATO would remain impossible since 5 member states do not recognize Kosovo. And apart from Greece, others have not given even a hint of change. Thus, it would be much better to talk with these countries in confidence but without making it public. Unfortunately, Kosova has displayed such diplomatic dilentatism at other cases during its application for membership to UNESCO and INTERPOL, where it has shown just “wishful thinking. “
A case of diplomatic diletantism is also the repeated demand articulated a few days ago in New York by FM Xhaçka, while pressing the opening of the negotiations with the EU. When it is common knowledge that it is not Brussels but Sofia that has blocked it. Then, instead of making much unnecessary noise in the “Glass Palace” where no one pays heed to our negotiations or even worse lecturing thee EU on its approaches from New York, it would be much better to run to Sofia and Skopje to talk with both sides there; reminding them to speed up the agreement between them, since it their deadlock is also affecting us.
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