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REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 46
17 – 31 MAY 2023
Grand Master Dr. Jorgji KOTE « dots the « I’s» and crosses the “t’s » on 4 major events in only 1000 words
1.G -7 with 5 major messages! From 18 – 20 May, the Summit of the group of the seven most developed states, G – 7 was held in the martyr city Hiroshima with five major geopolitical messages. The first was to step up the diplomatic pressure and demarches to reduce the nuclear armamment and not use them in any circumstance. Holding this Summit in Hiroshima was a telling message.
The next message was that the Western Alliance will continue to support Ukraine “ as long as it will be necessary”. The G7 leaders pledged aids of all kinds; most importantly, they agreed to establish the Coalition of fighter planes in view of providing Ukraine with sophisticated F – 16. Then followed the repeated forceful condemnation of the Russian aggression and the growing pressure on Moscow to withdraw from Ukraine, as the only means to pave the way to peace, adoption of new packages with much harder sanctions against Russia for vital goods and services; then, China was unanimously defined as a rival, partner and competitor; they expressed the united stance on China that the West does not intend to contain, damage or hinder its state or economy, but only to minimize the dangers stemming from its unilateral attitudes, lack of transparency, concerns on human rights in Tibeti and the provocations in the Taivan Strait.
Finally, G-7 spoke in favour of programs and projects on a larger cooperation with Southern Hemisphere states ( Global South) – Brazil, India, Indonesia and others so that they join the Western Alliance against Russia.
2. Much ado about nothing!
During this month and in the last two weeks there was an new growing wave of the interest and support by the US diplomacy for our region. Thus, on 27 April, the new US Ambassador for Albania, David Kostekancik was decreed; 10 days ago the new Assistant Secretary of State, James O’Brien was also appointed, an authority in the area of Western Balkans, a notable expert in the field of democracy and fight against corruption. On 19 May, the major geopolitical challenges in Western Balkans were thrashed out in a special session of the Foreign Committee of the US Senate; the Senior Councillor in the State Department, Derek Chollet and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State& Special Envoy for Western Balkans, Gabriel Escobar reported there. Recently, both of them together with their EU counterparts have been flying almost every week in all the capitals of the region.
Once this debate was over, on 21 – 25 May, two US senators Chris Murphy and Gary Peters flew to Belgrade, Podgorica, Pristina, Skopie an in Tirana, where they held talks with the highest state, governmental, parliamentary and diplomatic authorities of these countries on the strengthening of regional coooeration. Meanwhile, in mid – may, at the invitation of the Council of Albanian Ambassadors, an enlarged delegation of the Council of American Ambassadors ( CAA) led by its President, Ambassador Timothy Chorba was for a one week fact – finding mission in Tirana, Pristina and Skopie. They also met the highest authorities there.
Likewise, the EU organized in Brussels on 22 May a meeting of its Council with the 6 leaders of Western Balkans. However, what is happening reminds us of Shakespeare’s legendary saying ” much ado about nothing” Not only there is no progress in the region, including the dialogue Pristina – Belgrade and the implementation of Ohrid Agreement of the 18 March 2023, but things are going from bad to worse. Up to the tensed and violent confrontations and incidents that continue from 26 May in Northern Kosovo, just because the Mayors elected in free an fair elections wanted to start their new mission; against violent attacks by different serb forces, Kosovo police tried to help the Mayors enter their offices. That was all. Suprisingly enough, this was sharply condemned by the EU and the US even with political sanctions against Pristina, as if it was Pristina the cause of such a situation, uttering no word against the genuine provocateur, Belgrade. Although Vuçiç continues to defy the West, swearing that it will never recognize Kosovo and will not implement Ohrid Agreement, except for the Association of communes with Serbian majority. Yet, both the US and the EU try to be in good terms with Belgrade, just not to frustrate it and make it join Russia!
As we have stressed earlier, both the dialogue and the situation there are in a blind alley. What is indeed needed to get out of such a deadlock is a 180 degree turning point in the West attitudes, but not treating Belgrade as “mother’s and Pristina as step mother’s son”. Otherwise, while trying to drive Russia out from the door, it will very easily get through the window”!
3. Erdoganist Turkey: This is a true historic duo after the re-election of President Erdogan in the run- off on 28 May with 52 per cent of the votes against 48 per cent of its challenger, Kilicdaroglu of united opposition.
Thus, Edogan becomes the leader with the longest political life in Turkey, exceeding even the legendary Ataturk. This victory came despite all negative occurrences, rising inflation at 90 per cent, a 5 times larger debt, declining democracy, 55.000 casualties from the devastating earthquake. Yet, the majority in Turkey preferred continuity with Erdogan. Again it was nationalism, religion, populism that won over. So, we have Erdoganist Turkey. Certainly, his western counterparts congratulated him, reminding us of the saying “ a priest dances against his own will”
4. A historic victory postponed! “ New Democracy” of Prime Minister Mitsotakis scoreed a landsliding victory in the parliamentary elections on 21 May with 42 per cent of the ballots against 20 per cent of the major opposition “Syriza” of the former Prime Minister Cipras. Since it needs 4 more seats in the Parliament to govern alone, on 28 June the greeks will head again to the polls where for New Democracy is just a simple formality to win more than the required 4 seats.
This victory was surprising in such proportion, especially after the mortal railway accident with 59 casulaties and the wiretapping scandal. Nonetheless, Mitsotakis government has shown great commitment in encountering several challenges and difficulties posed by COVID – 19 and achieved satisfactory economic indicators. Therefore, a second term for Mitsotakis is fully possible, useful and justifiable.
© 2023 Argumentum
