REAL POLITIK NO. 98
1 – 19 JANUARY 2026
Comments “ flash” on 4 major diplomatic events, only in 1.000 words by the prominent analyst, Grand Master in Diplomacy,
DR. JORGJI KOTE
1.5 Lessons from the American 3 January! The major US military operation on on 3 January that ended succesfully with the capture of Venezuela’s President Maduro was the first major event in 2026 that shook the world with numerous unpredictable effects. According to prominent experts, there are five major conclusions that emanate from this event:
First, “ Absolute Resolve Operation“ showed that the USA remains the largest political, economic and military might worldwide.
President Trump has confirmed that he would use military force to defend their strategic interests in Venezuela, Iran, Columbia, Cuba and in Greenland.
Secondly, the fact that this military operation in less than a month from the launch of the new US National Security Strategy shows that Trump is very serious and he is not joking with that.
Third, with this operation President Trump confirmed his strategic interest to divide the world in three zones of influence with Russia and China.
Then, Trump certified that he has updated and baptized the famous Monrow Doctrine as “ America for Americans in the USA”!
This operation was also a humiliation for Russia, because Trump did in Caracas in 4 hours what Putin has not done in almost four years! It was also a defiance for China.
Forth, President Trump’s statement on the exploitation of Venezuel’sa crude oil by US companies is the latest testimony on the implementation of his transactionalist doctrine, placing commercial profits over all democratic values and principles, including the rule of law.
Most importantly, the USA will weaponize Venezuelian oil against China, Russia and Iran, as its greatest allies and buyers.
The fifth conclusion is that Europe should step up its preparations in the new conditions of a changing world and the international order, as an outcome of US political and military actions. It is becoming clear that the USA are shifting away from consultations with their European allies and that now they are not any more partners and allies sharing democratic values and principles; they are just clients in commercial deals. Moreover, the new US Security Strategy entails a clause on US support for the “ patriotic resistance in Europe” so that allegedly its civilization would not collapse in the next 20 years”!.
The latest developments with the failure of the ceasefire and peace efforts in Ukraine and endeavours to divide Europe are strong alarm calls and tolls for Europe to finish its historic rearmament process and within 2030 to become also a Great Defence Union.
2. Don’t count the chickens before they are hatched! This may be said for the Summit of the Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine held in Paris on 6 January, with the presence of 35 state leaders. Despite efforts and steps concerning the assistance to Ukraine with Western troops to guarantee a possible peace deal, this summit did not achieve anything special and essential. Actually, it is not the Ukraine supporting states to blame for that, but this is due to to the fact that without waiting the end of this Summit, Moscow categorically refused its ideas; moreover, it responded forcefully to Kyev with Oreshnik missiles. As the odds are, given the legitimate concern and good will to anticipate events on time, Europe seems as they say “to count the chickens in Ukraine before they are hatched” by Russia. Moreover, when the USA have deplaced Ukraine from their geopolitical priorities, giving free hand to Putin in his “ zone of influence”. Accordingly, peace seems far away, reminding us the well – known saying “ the fish in the sea, the frying pan on the fire”
3. Could NATO “ freeze” in Greenland? This major geopolitical question did not get an answer even in the meeting held on 14 January in Uashington among the Foreign Ministers of Denmark and Groenland with the US Vice President J.D.Vance. Actually and correctly, all European states have expressed their intention for compromise and namely to permit the USA to increase in their maximum their presence and troops in Greenland together with other NATO Member States in order to defy China and Russia in their attempts there. Therefore, on 15 January the first European recognition troops from some European states tlanded there with the message that Greenland can be neither sold out nor occupied. The European diplomacy is doing their utmost to avoid it, because the the US annexation of Greenland would mean the end of NATO with unpredictable tragic effects for the whole West.
4. Wrong diplomatic messages! The first such wrong message relates to the presence of Deputy Prime Minister Belinda Balluku on12 January in a meeting in the US Embassy. It was indeed a diplomatic blunder, since Ms. Balluku is officially a suspect for corruption, at a time when the USA and the US Embassy in Tirana are ringing the bells of alarm to fight organized crime, corruption and narctraffics. Instead of such an improper presence, it would have been be much better for her to have resigned, without the need for her Prime Minister to discharge her and not to delay the Meeting of the Parliamentary Comittee of Mandates to lift the immunity and pave the way to her arrest. Such acts of defying USA in their own house in Tirana are neither neccesry nor useful. Then, what should the US host say to Ms. Balluku, should she have told her how Mogherini resigned the next day and the US high officials who have resigned instantly after charges were raised? Because she should know that now it is only her name and post at stake, but the public trust on the state and on the government. Well, we respect the presumption of innocance and wish that she be declared innocent at the end, even though her files are as large as a haystack.
The second wrong message was given by PM Rama in a rally to honour a US company entrusted with the construction of an Aeolic Park in Tropoja, again at the presence of the US Chargée of Affairs, Ms. Vancy VanHorn. Beyond any diplomatic logic, for it was an American company being honoured, Rama praised China that considers Albania “ a drop of honey”. A totally displaced message. Certainly the US Embassy declined it the next day with a typical diplomatic “ NO”.
© 2026 Argumentum
