Realpolitik “ Flash” No. 30
1 – 15 SEPTEMBER 2022
EXCLUSIVELY at ARGUMENTUM,
“Grand Master”, DR. JORGJI KOTE, “ dots the i’s and crosses the t’s” on 4 major events in only 1000 words!
1.Berlin is more than enough! This was clearly shown by the “ Open Balkans” Summit on 2 September, in the context of the “ Food Fair” in Belrgade (1 – 4 September). However, despite the wine flavour, the glamour and pump, it marked its biggest political – diplomatic failure.
Apart from the permanent sponsor, Alex Soros, no other senior guests were there from the EU, its Czech Presidency and the USA. No personal message from them, as before. Italy and Greece declined the invitation for the second time; it’s normal, since Italy is involved in “ Berlin Process”, on which recently, Greece has also shown interest. I do not know how consoling was the presence of the chief diplomats from Ankara and Budapest, both not in the Berlin Process or the presence of Zaev and Abazovic, ”fallen from the fig of power” Ironically enough, the taste of wine and the political humor of senior guests in Belgrade ws spoiled by the disquietening reports/polls by the US prestigious foundation « Rockefeler », Euroactiv, and internationally recognized german and US experts. Besides, the Albanian unprecedented arbitrarity and state violence in the “Prestige Resort” overshadowed this event. Par consequence, the regional and international echo was Nil.
The alarming problem is that the “ Open Balkan” leaders, Vucic, Rama and Kovacevski do not want to see that even this summit in Belgrade would have been much more successful and all – inclusive if it was organized under “ Berlin Process” and the EU Regional Common Market. There would be the 6 countries of the region and at last 6 times more participating companies! Plus, personalities from Washington, Brussels, Berlin, Paris, Rome, London and Prague, which holds the EU Presidency and others. But the damaging defiance towards Brussels and Berlin has made those “ captured” by Open Balkans blind; so they cannot see beyond Belgrade, Tirana and Skopje! Let us hope that until 3 November, when the Berlin Process will resume, they will finally realize that Berlin and Brussels are more than enough for us, so, enough is enough with “ Open Balkans”!
2. Erdogan: conditions, otherwise Harram! Following the previous “ ice – cold” meeting in Ankara between Erdogan and Rama, Turkey gave two other testimonies of their political bad feelings with official Tirana. A few weeks ago, the Turkish Foreign Minister, Mr. Cavutogllu was on a regional tour, but he avoided Tirana. Neither did he meet PM Rama in the “ Open Balkans” Summit in Belgrade. Meanwhile, from 7 – 9 September, President Erdogan was also in a tour in the region, but again he “ forgot” Tirana. Although he had promised to be there this May. There are other hints and indications, which show that Tirana should satisfy the Ankara demands related to gylenists and Moslem Community in order to restore the good political mood of the Turkish friends. In a word, Erdogan is indirectly telling to his “brother” Rama: “ accept the conditions or Haram” But what about USA and EU?
3. Good words but stones in the rafters”! This aphorism comes to mind after the Balkans Summit in Brdo on 12 September. In fact, it was an extension of the Balkans “Summer Theatre of Summits”! Everything there was painted in rose, as if there is no problem in Western Balkans apart from the visa liberalization for Kosovo and acceleration of the enlargement process to WB, both tasks for the EU. Although this message is repeated over and over again and has become boring. Under the sunny summer atmosphere in Brdo, the 6 WB leaders enjoyed the flavour of the delicious Slovenian&Croatian wines and delicacies, away from noise and media, applying the principle: “ Never mention rope in the house of the man who has been hanged”» Therefore, there was hardly any word on the dialogue between Pristine and Belgrade, which is in a real blind alley, the political crisis in Montenegro, in Bosnia, problems among the countries of the region, energy crisis and even “Open Balkans” since PM Rama was absent. As our saying goes, there were there only “ good words but stones in the rafters” Actually, these summits have become like mushrooms, both in summer and now in autumn; thus, Brdo Summit followed those in Thesalonikki, Belgrade, Ohrid, Alpbach in Austria…. Perhaps it is high time to reduce or discontinue them, since apart from talk&eating, the time spent and superload of relevant agencies, there is nothing useful “on the bags” of participants; no coming closer but drifting apart, no friendship but hostility, as the case with Vucic who once in Belgrade swore not to recognize Kosovo! On the other hand, he keeps inviting Kosovo to join Open Balkans!! What a hypocrisy! In this case, even the large espenses for such summits that have become boring shows maybe used for cultural festivals, youth and other events.
4.The dialogue is Vucic Hostage! This was clearly seen on 13 September during the speech by President Vucic in the plenary session of the Serbian parliament, which lasted 25 hours! He solemnly declared that there would be no recognition of Kosovo, that Belgrade will step up the withdrawal of other state recognitions and that they are prepared even for an armed conflict, since Serbia is 10 times stronger now than in 1999! This statement came just a few days after the highest diplomatic envoyées of President Macron and Chancellor Scholz met with PM Kurti and President Vucic, in an effort to boost the dialogue; pressing Vucic to urgently recognize Kosovo’s independence. President Vucic considered this as a “ new dialogue frame from the west” but there is nothing new in that except the growing pressure on Serbia. Meawhile the “ geography” of international mediation continues to expand. Slovenia has recently appointed a mediator, who joins those of EU, the USA, France, Germany and the UK. Let us hope that the wise saying “ too many cooks spoil the broth” would not come true this time! But the bitter fact is that this dialogue is captured and held hostage by Serbia and President Vucic; hence, any attempt and effort could be futile if Belgrade does not set free this “hostage”, i.e. its dialogue with Pristina! For, as we say in Albania” pilaf cannot hold any more water” and “the cup is full”!
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