REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 42
1 – 24 MARCH 2023
The well-known diplomatic analyst, Dr. Jorgji KOTE « dots the « I’s» and crosses the “t’s » on 6 major events in only 1000 words
1. “Blank Paper” in the While House! On the 3d March, President Biden and Chancellor Scholz reconfirmed the US – German friendship and support for Ukraine “ as long as necessary”, the delivery of the most sophisticated weapons, including “Leopard and Abrams” tanks and others. A much expected message and a “ blank paper” for further actions, especially now that scepticism for this support is growing.
2. Enough is enough with Open Balkans! This was the main message during the meeting Scholz – Rama in Berlin on 7 March. It was announced that Berlin Process Summit will be in Tirana in autumn. This time, even Premier Rama did not mention “Open Balkans“! Whereas the hosts have deleted it from their vocabulary.
Berlin has closed “Open Balkans” for ever. It is nonsense even as a “ tail” i.e. an implementing unit or complementary to Berlin. There are plenty of them – the Regional Cooperation Council, CEFTA Secretariat and the Regional Common Market. This was a hard blow for PM Rama, since just on 27 February he announced that “Open Balkans” Summit would be held in Podgorica in June. Praising it to skies “Open Balkans” he sidewalked Berlin Process, which allegedly was kept alive thanks to Open Balkans!!
3. Euro – Atlantic routine was the 40th Meeting of the EU – Albania Association-Stabilization Council in Tirana on 15 March. Vague, without news, interest and public echo, except the government’s withdrawal from “Golden Passports”. However, the draft laws on fiscal amnesty and cannabis legalization remain. Actually, these meetings have largely become a Euro-Atlantic routine and rhetoric!
The same applies, despite much media fuss by opposition to the latest US State Department Report 20022; it is more like a Diary of major events in the countries. Since it is hardly recognized even by those who have ordered its drafting there, who did not even object PM Rama when he has labelled it “ copy and paste”! The violant confiscation raid of “Prestige Resort” on 22 March was another telling defiance to this Report without any response so far.
4.”Cold Halva” is considered “the unsigned agreement“ between President Vuçiç and Prime Minister Kurti in long negotiations on 18 March in Ohrid. Although the climate and atmosphere on its eve promised nothing. Only the presence and insistance by Borrell, Lajcak and Escobar avoided a new diplomatic failure. “Cold Halva” since it never happened to demand signing an annex without its basic agreement and the latter to be implemented without signature and seal. Moreover, when Belgrade holds the constitutional preambula that Kosovo is part of Serbia, which devaluates sovereignty and territorial integrity. Or when Vuçiç states openly that he will not sign an agreement with a country that Serbia does not recognize. Then comes the next irony when they demand association without recognition, although Kosovo observes minority rights better than even some EU states. Certainly, the big winners of this endless mess are the EU and US negotiators, who can show off that they achieved such a difficult agreement.
Even more, when vital elections are knocking on the EU and US doors. But nothing more is expected, apart from the continuation of the usual refrain and rhetoric of tensions, divisions and provocations, with international mediators as “firefighters”.
Then, what else is needed to call the agreement in Ohrid “ Cold Halva”?
5.Alliance, no China impartiality! This was the major political conclusion after the visit by President Xi Jinping in Moscow from 20 – 22 March. Although he went there allegedly for peace with his 12 point Plan. Make no mistake, “ impartial” China has no interest for Putin’s defeat and his replacement with a pro western democratic government. That would be a political, economic and military “tsunami” for China’s geostrategic objective for the destruction of western Alliance together with Russia.
But even a quick Russia’s victory would not be to China’s benefit, since the geopolitical priority would pass over to Russia. Indeed, the most ideal version for China is neither a truce nor ceasefire, but the longest possible prolongation of war in Ukraine. Thus, China would use its geostrategic bonds with Russia for the promotion of foreign trade, arms delivery and other aspects in their cooperation.
To show how vital are Rusia and China for one another even in economic terms, it’s suffice to mention that their trade volume in 2022 grew 30 per cent, reaching the record level of 177 billion Euro; Russian crude oil imports grew 45 per cent, coal 54 and natural gas purchases rocketed to 155 per cent. Besides, Russia substitutes through China many of its vital western products. Thus, its car exports to Russia grew 45 per cent and electronic equipment from 40 to 95 per cent.
Meanwhile, after being ousted from the international payment system “SWIFT”, Russia has considerably increased the use of Chinese Yen; from 1% in January, it occupied 48 per cent of the Russian financial market in November 2022.
The next major benefit for China from the war prolongation is that it will keep the USA and the EU engaged with that conflict, gaining more free action space, especially in the Pacific region.
As to the Chinese Peace Plan, it also serves its geopolitical interests, as “with one single stone it kills not two, but many more birds with” China tells the countries in Africa, Azia and Latin America that “ look, we did our best, we even brought Russia on board for peace, but the USA and Europe did not pay heed to us!! Finally, it does not “stick” at all that President Xi hacks off as a peacemaker but on the other hand calls Putin “ close ally”. Or when he has met Putin 40 times, but not even a phone call for President Zelenski!
6. Paintings and boats! was the logo during PM Rama visits in Athens and London on 20 – 24 March. Ironically, “zero problems” with Greece. Besides others, the Ionnian Sea is “neither on earth nor on air”. The only problem now there seems the sale of paintings. Whereas in London, the crisis of Albanian illegal emigrants is crying out for solution. After the populist fuss with attacks on UK, our government has surrendered without conditions. Yet, Rama teaches and gives lectures in London! O tempora, o mores!
© 2023 Argumentum
