By Philip Acey*
Exclusively for Argumentum,
Last month, then-interim Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made a couple of bold declarations:
“The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over.” And “…Canada’s ready to take a leadership role in building a coalition of like-minded countries who share our values [regarding free trade].”
These remarks signal a desire for a new era of Canadian leadership on the world stage while still relying on foreign alliances. But it raises a critical question: who are these “like-minded countries”? Besides from a few countries in Asia such as Japan and South Korea, Canada has signalled that it is looking toward Europe for deepened economic and military cooperation, even as it seeks to repair its relationship with the United States.
Yet, the Canadian government is seemingly unaware that as the U.S. restructures itself and pivots its priorities to national security threats in North America and Asia and entrusts Europe to take more responsibility in defending itself, Europe is also undergoing profound changes, especially ideologically. Therefore, Canada may find itself attempting to deepen relations with friends who once shared like-minded values but are shifting away from liberal democracy towards democracy with less emphasis on liberal values such as international cooperation and global governance to name but a few.
Liberal democracy in Europe is deteriorating faster than many Canadians realize. Two major trends within European politics underscore this ideological shift:
The Rise of Populism and Nationalism
First, over the past three years, voters across Europe have rejected establishment parties in favour of populist, nationalist, or far-right alternatives, underscoring the growing appeal of such movements. Such parties now govern or play significant roles in governing coalitions within Italy, Hungary, the Netherlands, Finland, and Slovakia. In France, Germany, and Austria, such parties have emerged as the most powerful opposition forces. In last week’s local elections, Reform UK won over 40% of the seats – 677 – surging from a mere 6 seats in 2023. According to BBC polls, if a national election was held today, it would receive the highest support of any party. In Romania, far-right candidate George Simion is poised to win the presidency on May 18.
The Backlash Against Populism and Nationalism
Second, as nationalist and populist parties gain electoral legitimacy, European governments are increasingly cracking down on such opposition parties and candidates under the pretext of defending democracy. This has led to disturbing developments in countries like Romania, where the first-round results of the November 2024 election were annulled by the Constitutional Court, citing alleged Russian interference after far-right candidate Călin Georgescu won with nearly 23% of the vote; a result that Romanian authorities did not believe was legitimate.
In early March, Georgescu was arrested on numerous charges including posing a threat to the constitutional order, and barred from running in the May 2025 rerun. In the first-round rerun held on May 4, another far-right candidate representing a different party – George Simion (who was endorsed by Georgescu) – won nearly 41% of the vote. The second-round runoff will take place on May 18, since a candidate must secure more than 50% of the popular vote to be elected president. It is clear from this re-run election result that there is significant support among Romanians for a nationalist candidate. The annulment of the first-round results from November 2024 not only served to discredit legitimate political support for a political candidate but is likely to further diminish trust in democratic institutions not only in Romania but elsewhere in Europe.
Timing, optics, context, and trends are important in politics. In recent weeks, France and Germany employed similar tactics against populist and far-right figures and parties, such as Marine Le Pen – facing embezzlement charges and subsequently being banned from running for office for five years, including the 2027 presidential election – and the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, which has been labeled as “right-wing extremist” by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
Note that following the February 2025 federal election, the AfD became the main opposition party, winning 21% of the national vote and 152 of the 630 seats in the Bundestag, a seat improvement of over 80% compared to 2021. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution stated that some of AfD’s positions are “incompatible with the democratic basic order,” aka the current constitution of Germany; current being the key word.
The rise of populist and far-right parties in Europe is no longer a fringe phenomenon; it reflects deep cracks in the political foundations of European countries and the European Union itself. It has and will have implications for the ideology of the European countries, its economic and foreign policy priorities and relationships.
Both of these major trends reflect a broader shift away from liberal democracy in Europe. Anti-establishment parties are united around skepticism toward globalization, opposition to mass migration, as well as criticism of NATO membership and the EU’s bureaucratic overreach. Canada should take note: European society is no longer rallying around the ideals of liberal democracy and globalization – it is increasingly moving away from them.
These crackdowns are especially concerning, considering that Western governments, including Canada, have repeatedly and firmly condemned similar actions in Russia and Belarus, which targeted opposition figures and their supporters, even using them as a basis for sanctions. Despite the rise of these parties and figures being largely driven by domestic grievances rather than foreign interference, most Western countries, including Canada, have remained silent on the crackdown against populist and far-right opposition in Europe – opposition that has been legitimately elected by the will of the people. Ironically, it is the U.S. – which Europe and Canada accuse of democratically backsliding – that has been the lone Western country to publicly and repeatedly raise alarm bells about Europe’s trajectory and its curtailing of individual rights, including free speech.
Legal and Political Tensions
This has created a dilemma in Europe, where strict legalism – adhering to the current constitution – now conflicts with the shifting political will of the population, which democracy is meant to represent.
Legal and law enforcement authorities rightfully uphold their nation’s constitution and laws. Yet, there comes a time when the political will of the people clashes with the law and the constitution. What then is the next step or the right step? Historically speaking, constitutional amendments are made or entirely new constitutions are written.
Europe is very much a continent whose countries have – generally speaking – enacted multiple constitutions since the beginning of the 20th century. In that time period, Germany and France have each had three constitutions, Poland has had six, and many others have had two or more. Enacting new constitutions – while almost unheard of in the U.S. and Canada – is the norm in Europe and many of its leading countries may be on the verge of establishing new constitutions in coming years should current ideological trends continue.
Yet, rather than listening to the electorate, many European governments are utilizing lawfare and suppressing popular political parties and candidates in favour of defending the ideological status quo. The rise of such parties or candidates is often dismissed as a Russian plot, despite the lack of evidence that foreign interference is significantly influencing the outcome of elections. Rather, foreign interference is exacerbating and amplifying existing societal divisions in an effort to influence outcomes that serve their national interests. In recent months, such lawfare has been used against Donald Trump, Georgescu in Romania, the AfD in Germany, Marine Le Pen and her National Rally in France, among others.
As mentioned before, trends, optics, timing, and context in politics is crucial, and what’s happening now suggests Europe is in the midst of a crisis. These tensions and contradictions point to a fundamental shift in the definition of democracy. In their efforts to preserve a liberal democratic constitutional order, many European governments are acting in ways that make their societies feel as though they are undermining the very democratic values they profess to defend.
The Dilemma for Canada
Returning to Canada’s search for like-minded countries in Europe, particularly those who share its values on globalization and liberal-democratic ideals, the trajectory of Europe is shifting more toward nationalism and protectionism than free trade. According to the Canadian government’s rhetoric, the UK and France are seen as primary allies for both economic and military cooperation. However, rather than looking forward, this shift seems to echo a time when Canada was colonized by both the French and the British.
Canada’s Strategic Shift
Prime Minister Carney’s vision for a modern Canadian leadership role is undermined by symbolic choices that project a regressive identity rather than one that takes into account the evolving ideological landscape in Europe. His decision to invite King Charles to open Parliament on May 27 – framed by Carney as a reaffirmation of Canadian sovereignty – does the opposite: it highlights colonial-era optics. While I support the monarchy, such gestures do not convey a forward-looking vision of sovereignty in an era when Canada views its autonomy as increasingly under threat. Instead, they evoke Canada’s colonial past under British rule, regardless of Canada’s current status of being a member of the Commonwealth.
Canada’s search for like-minded allies in Europe also overlooks the continent’s – and the world’s – growing ideological fragmentation and political divisions. The European Union, far from being a united force for liberal democracy, is deeply divided on critical issues like migration, defence, support for Ukraine, and economic governance. Diplomatically, Europe has struggled to assert itself in global crises and deter adversaries. Militarily, it remains reliant on U.S. support to keep the continent secure and provide a sufficient deterrent.
Regarding the latter, France is expressing a desire to take on a larger security role in Europe, but it currently lacks the capability to do so. Many other EU states struggle to significantly invest further in defence without relying on external loans. Diplomatically, over the last three years, France has suffered an alarming setback in its area of traditional influence – West Africa – with its military forces being expelled from Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Senegal, and Ivory Coast. Rather than projecting strength and stability, France is attempting to reposition itself in Europe out of necessity after losing influence in its former colonial territories. Genuine leadership requires strength, unity, and capability – not just ambition, and Europe is currently lacking in all three.
A Forward-Looking Approach
As Europe’s ability to project power and unity weakens, and populist and far-right parties gain increasing legitimacy, the likelihood of a new liberal democratic coalition becomes increasingly unlikely. Consequently, Canada’s ambition to lead a new alliance with like-minded liberal democracies in Europe appears more of a hope than a strategy.
As the U.S. restructures itself and Europe deals with numerous domestic challenges, the continent is not currently in a position to play a leading role with Canada in promoting a credible international order based on liberal democratic ideals with the coercive power to shape global affairs. Only with the U.S. at the helm can a liberal democratic system meet both of these essential requirements.
Therefore, in this context, Canada’s current approach to be more wary of the United States and seek new alliances with like-minded countries in Europe is not only misreading Europe’s ideological shift but also fails to provide a credible alternative to anything other than a renegotiated and stronger Canada-US alliance, regardless of the annexation rhetoric and tariffs coming from President Trump. Ultimately, the U.S. remains better positioned to help Canada meet the challenges of the coming decades.
*Philip Acey is a PhD candidate from Canada and an independent political researcher and analyst who has worked on the ground for over a decade across Europe, Asia, Africa, and South America, visiting more than 50 countries. His research has been used worldwide to advise the UN Security Council, UN agencies, diplomats, and humanitarian organizations.
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