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REAL POLITIK FLASH NO. 83
16 FEBRUARY – 3 MARCH 2025
With “ flash” comments on 4 major events in only 1000 words by the well-known analyst,
DR. JORGJI KOTE
1.Europe tightens the ranks! Just when all were waiting a new promising start USA/ EU, after the new leaders were in place in Brussels and Washington, in the light of new developments, specifically in Ukraine and on the eve of the third Anniversary of the Rusian agrgession, the unimaginable happened.
The new US President, Donald Trump and his closest associates started to bitterly attack the EU, its policies and countries, implying that the EU may be a competitor and opponent but not a strategic ally as to date. Moreover, most recently, Trump said that the EU was established to screw the USA! USA has launched frontal attacks against Germany, France, UK, Denmark and even Canada, engaging into an political, ideological, economic and trade war as in the case of 25 per cent taxes on the EU imports.
Therefore, the EU has sounded the notes of alarm and is tightening its ranks. To protect not only its fundamental values and principles, but also its vital interests, its political and physical survival! It is intensifying its “ shuttle diplomacy” in Washington, Brussels and in other international metropoles. Thus, President Macron invited in Elisée the major EU leaders, a few days ago he received the new German Chancelor Friedrich Merz in a very friendly meeting; He and the British PM Starmer were in Washington where they met President Trump and on 28 February there was President Zelenski signing the economic agreement on the rare minerals. On 2 March, the UK Prime Minister has invited his counterparts in Downing Street 10 to discuss about these grave concerns; just 2 days after the failed meeting Trump-Zelenski in the White House and 4 days before the EU extraordinary Summit in Brussels.
Meanwhile, Europe has started the preparations for its strategic defence autonomy, in the defence of its own territorial integrity. The EU with its allies has all means and possibilities to this end. It needs just the political will and cohesion, the determination and some time to get things on the move its defence machinery. It has also great and strong allies as the UK, Turkey. Then, France and UK have the nuclear weapons and it is possible that its protective umbrella would extend to other countries. In short, Europe is now justly applying the well-known aphorism” if you want peace, prepare for war”!
2. The Euro-Atlantic Alliance in danger! Indeed into a much greater danger after the irreparable split of the last two months. The greatest political and military alliance is spliting in two. This applies to the essential western democratic values and principles, and to the defence safeguards and interests. Even Article 5 on the NATO collective defence is at stake. This split is occurring in a very fragile moment when NATO should display its force and unity, starting with Ukraine, for an end to the war and genuine peace there. Unfortunately, President Trump made it public in his meeting with President Zelenski on 28 February that the USA are not willing to provide the necessary security guarantees for lasting peace there; despite Kiev’s readiness to sign the deal for its rare minerals.. This followed the US sponsored resolution in the UN Security Council where the word” aggressor” is ommitted”. The worst is that they are seeking to quantify the values of this great Alliance, although it was established, led and inspired by the shared Euro – Atlantic values and principles.
3. USA 1945! Yes, this can be said atfer the first two months of this year. For the first time after 80 years, the USA, the pioneer and champion of liberal democracy, peace, free trade, the new world order established in 1945 and the force of international law now tends to replace them with the law of force; it is striking deals with Russia without caring for western values and principles; meanwhile, it does not spare its curses against its strategic allies in Europe and Canada. True, after 4 years another US President may come in the White House and reverse the situation; yet, the damage is done, the Euro-Atlantic “bread and heart” are broken and they cannot return where and how they used to be.
4.A true peace, not a new occupation! This is the major issue raised for discussion on a possible peace in Ukraine. There is much diplomatic talks and moves on such a peace with US mediation; however, this possible peace seems to be a peace with several negative “WITHOUTS”; Without the decisive US security guarantees, without the EU, without Ukraine and without its territory before 2014, and other “withouts”…
This is a strong reason to believe that such attempts are bound to fail. Because let us clarify once again for u our readers. There are only two alternatives for a genuine and lasting peace in Ukraine:
The first, uncompromised struggle to the final victory with the staunch US and European support; with legal safeguards from Russia that it will not dare to launch such aggression again against Ukraine and any other state; and Ukraine’s accession to NATO, as the best relevant guarantee.
The second, a ceacefire, stop the fightings first from Russia, withdrawal of its troops from Ukraine and the start of diplomatic and inclusive negotiations for a real peace with al relevant actors and the USA as her leader, certainly. Here with some concessions by both parts, as a belated Ukraine’s accession to NATO and others.
The third wrong alterntive, which is proposed now with its many “ withouts”. The problem with it is that it won’t be a genuine and sustainable peace, but a new occupation and capitulation by Ukraine; furthermore, a victory for the law of force against the force of law. Thus, it will open the neo-imperialist “Pandora’s box” with possible military territory changes and occupation everywhere. Hence, this peace has no guarantee for Ukraine and even for other EU states from a later possible attack. But this would be detrimental also to the USA with a heavy price to pay.
This is why Europe now is seeking other great allies. It is reconceiving and rebuilding itself, with new geopolitical concepts, practices and alliances, to be able to protect itself, its own peoples and the whole successful project it launched 67 years ago for peace, prosperity, stability and liberal democracy! Europe cannot and will certainly not fall!
© 2025 Argumentum
