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Author: Dr. Gurakuç Kuçi – Senior Researcher at Institute for Hybrid Warfare Studies “OCTOPUS” and professor at Universum College
The statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 19, 2025, at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum that “the DPR (Donetsk) and LPR (Luhansk) had the right to secede from Ukraine without Kyiv’s permission, based on the Kosovo precedent,” represents a strategically dangerous act. It is simultaneously an instrument of pressure against the West and a double-edged signal with concrete consequences for the future of Kosovo, especially its north.
This statement was preceded by two other developments:
- The participation of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic at the South-East Europe Summit in Odesa, Ukraine, on June 11; and
- The statement of the President of the USA, Donald Trump, on Truth Social that he would restore peace between Kosovo and Serbia, on June 15.
This chronological order may be a coincidence, but it could also be a sign that a new wave of diplomacy is in motion, and Kosovo must be cautious.
1. Kosovo – a bargaining chip for Ukraine?
At first glance, Putin’s statement may be interpreted as a “factual recognition” of Kosovo’s existence. However, this “recognition” is neither political acknowledgment nor legal affirmation, but a cynical instrumentalization of Kosovo’s case.
Putin seeks for what was allowed to Kosovo by the West to now be allowed for Donetsk and Luhansk.
- He uses the 2010 ruling of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on Kosovo, but with an incomplete interpretation.
- In fact, the ICJ did not create a precedent. It said that “Kosovo’s declaration of independence was not in violation of international law” and that Kosovo is a sui generis case (because the question toward ICJ was at that way).
This means that Putin’s statement is a disguised offer for a deal, in which Ukraine is forced to accept territorial division in exchange for peace, and he legitimizes this through the example of Kosovo.
2. A dangerous signal for Kosovo: Legalization of the Donetsk-Luhansk model in the north
Putin’s statement is a double-edged sword, because in addition to addressing the West, it sends destabilizing signals for the Balkans, particularly for Kosovo. Here emerges a significant strategic risk:
a. Legalization of the division of northern Kosovo?
Putin, by mentioning Kosovo, is sending a dangerous signal for a model of controlled division in the north of Kosovo, with the following possible steps:
- Phase 1: Intensification of civil clashes and a demand for an international “sanitary cordon” as a “stabilization measure”;
- Phase 2: Creation of parallel structures and denial of the authority of Kosovo’s institutions in the north;
- Phase 3: Declaration of a “local independence” and a request to join Serbia, a reflection of the Donetsk – Luhansk scenario.
Putin has given the precedent that Belgrade needs. One spark is enough to activate this scenario with high cost to Kosovo’s security.
b. Betrayal of Serbia or strategic coordination?
- From a Serbian viewpoint, this statement appears as a major concession, a recognition of Kosovo that undermines Serbia’s own narrative.
- But fundamentally, this could be coordinated with Belgrade, as part of a grand solution: Serbia gives up “all” of Kosovo in exchange for a part (the north).
- This would be a victory for Russia and Serbia, using “Kosovo as a precedent” to institutionalize further divisions in other regions of the Balkans and former USSR.
3. The danger of manipulating international law
Putin is not genuinely appealing to international law, he is using it as a rhetorical weapon to mask an act of aggression. By using Kosovo as a false precedent, he tries to create an illusion of equality between two fundamentally different cases.
- Kosovo’s case came after systematic human rights violations by Serbia, after international intervention, and under a temporary UN administration (UNMIK).
- The Donetsk and Luhansk case is the product of direct intervention by the military and secret services of the Russian Federation, thus a classic case of international aggression.
The comparison is false in substance, but effective in propaganda.
Vucic’s trip to Odesa: “A signal of imposed solutions over certain territories”
Putin’s statement is not a peaceful gesture, nor a signal of withdrawal from anti-Kosovo narratives. It is a cynical use of Kosovo as a tool for strategic purposes in Ukraine and the Balkans. At its core:
- Kosovo is used as a diplomatic pressure tool against the West, to equate its case with that of pro-Russian separatist regions;
- At the same time, the idea of dividing northern Kosovo is legitimized as part of a “realistic solution” based on ethnicity;
- Most dangerously: international law is misused as a propaganda cover, not as a foundation for peace and stability.
The visit of Serbian President Aleksandar Vuci to Odesa was likely not merely symbolic. It seems it was used as a parallel channel for silent agreements over “contested” territories, from Donbas to northern Kosovo. With this act, Ukraine and the EU, by accepting Vucic as an equal at the table, not only undermine their own political integrity but give legitimacy to external structures that support ethnic and geopolitical divisions in the Balkans and Ukraine, a mistake Zelensky also made.
The future of Kosovo and the risk for Albanians in the Presevo Valley
Kosovo is a sovereign state, and any idea of territorial division is unacceptable. The aim of such scenarios is neither stability nor compromise, but defunctionalization and, ultimately, the disappearance of Kosovo as a state entity.
The risk does not lie only in the north. The moment partition is accepted, even theoretically, administrative, cultural and economic ethnocide against Albanians in the Presevo Valley will intensify, with the aim of creating a “different reality on the ground.”
This is a model Serbia has already tested:
- From the moment the idea of territorial exchange appeared in political discourse, the Serbian state intensified institutional, cultural and economic discrimination campaigns against Albanians in the Valley;
- Because once such an idea surfaces, it takes years to negotiate and implement, while the ground is quietly prepared through administrative means;
- This will lead to a gradual and silent cleansing of Albanians from the Valley, to the point where any option for reciprocity or correction will turn into a diplomatic deception with no real substance.
Kosovo does not have the luxury of being a spectator in this new geopolitical game. It must strengthen its position as an active subject and not an object of international diplomacy, by clearly demanding from international partners that its precedent not be used to legitimize aggression, partition, and the destruction of other states.
© 2025 Argumentum
