Realpolitik “ Flash” No. 29
17 – 31 August 2022
EXCLUSIVELY at ARGUMENTUM,
DR. JORGJI KOTE, “Grand Master” “ dots the i’s and crosses the t’s” on 5 major events in only 1000 words
1.Mediators or fire fighters? This is the question posed following the deal between Pristina and Belgrade on the movement of their citizens with the relevant documents on 27 August. A good but delayed step forward, thanks to the persistence of Kurti’s Government and endless shuttles by EU and US mediators. But caution, there is no new, but just the implementation of the agreement reached in 2011. Postponned due to lack of Serbia’s political will. Hence, the enthusiasm in the EU metropoles seems exagerated. Moreover, given the unsettled issue of number plates and particularly, the failure of the High level Dialogue session in Brussels on 18 August. Thus, the latest compromise simply avoided the outburst of a new violent conflict on 1 September; meanwhile, the international mediators proved to be much more effective fire fighters. But the question is whether they are mediators or fire fighters?!
The editorial in ARGUMENTUM ” The dialogue Pristina – Belgrade at a crossroad” has exhausted this issue. Therefore, we are closing with its last paragraph:” for the dialogue to advance, first the “red line” should be defined for Serbia, with concrete and quick deadlines! Secondly, Belgrade should make up its mind now and not later to follow the European instead of the Euro-Asian track. Thirdly, enough is enough with visions and statements! Decision, action and political determination are mostly needed now!
2. Do we really want accession negotiations? After the glamour, champaigne and fireworks in Tirana, we can’t wait to see the beginning of the accession negotiations in Brussels in September. A long and herculian challenge, which no one knows how long it will last. However, the danger is that the Albanian team may travel to Brussels as a bad legal debtor. It’s sufficient to mention three draft-laws on fiscal amnesty, cannabis legalization and issue of golden passports for foreigners. They are facing firm opposition by many economic and business entities, the US, German and Turkish Chambers of Commerce, groups of interest and the EU, in particular. The latter has openly voiced its opposition through the Resolution of EU Parliament and the Progress Report by EU Commission. On 30 August, its Spokeswoman, Pisonero stated clearly that the decision on golden passports boosts and encourages organized crime, money laundering, fiscal evasion, grey economy and security of Albanian&EU citizens. Unfortunately, these warnings and objections have fallen in “ deaf ears”. The Government continues “its old tune” paying no heed even to the EU Commission, which time ago PM Rama has not spared a praise for its unique expertise! Then, what’s the use of pseudarguments by some captured governmental experts? Why is it so hard to follow EU advise, although we “have left no stone unturned” to come closer to the EU? Why then, do we have many departments in the line ministries and in the Parliament, which are doing a great work for the approximation of our laws with those of the EU? Finally, what will our negotiators tell their counterparts when they meet in September in Brussels?
3. Unripe political lobsters! This is the label for the outgoing Prime Minister of Montenegro, Dritan Abazoviç. Although leading a minority and very fragile governmental coalition, whose survival was at the mercy of the Socialist Party of President Dukanovic, during its 115 governing days, Abazovic behaved as if he had the 2/3 of the parliamentary seats!. Although his tasks were the EU Integration, preparations for early general elections and a functional government, he tackled with issues which are indeed ” time bombs”! He supported ” Open Balkans” against the will of the majority and to make matters even worse he signed the fundemantal agreement with the Serbian Church authorities. Thus, he touched on “ two hot potatoes” in Montenegrin politics, which necessarily demand a full-fledged political consensus. Yet, Abazovic hoped with an unprecedented political naiveness to survive the vote of confidence on 20 August. This is why he is a bad incarnation of polititical immaturity and infantility! As for Kosovo, he almost ignored it.
Finally, as it occurs in cases like these, all those who first hailed Abazovic threw him out, because no one needs him anymore.
4.Erdogan in Kiev where on 20 August was warmly received by his counterpart Zelensky. Well, Turkey’s role in this conflict is common knowledge now, despite some scepticism at the beginning due to its “ conflict of interest” with both parties. Nonetheless, Erdogan elbowed his way through both in Moscow and Kiev; scoring another great diplomatic success after the agreement he chartered for the transport of grains with UN, Russia and Ukraine. Erdogan does terribly need such a geopolitical bonus, since he has very little chances at home. With a declining economy, skyrocketing inflation and growing discontent. These negative occurrences take place before the next presidential elections in June 2023, where his position is very shabby, in the face of the growing popularity of turkish united opposition.
Under these circumstances, Erdogan is trying “to play his political ball out of the goal area” in order to soften the domestic effects as well as to boost the international profile and stature, as a rescuer, mediator and man of peace. Meanwhile, this is overshadowing the violation of democratic standards, since the West is “ closing an eye and keeping a deaf ear”! The problem now is that Erdogan has to play the ball well to the end, so that he does not have an auto-goal! However, his 20 year old experience at the head of his party, government and state is a huge advantage in his battle for political survival.
5. “50 shades of Holocaust” were mentioned by Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority in his Press Conference with Chancellor Scholz in Berlin on 18 August. His statement that “ as of 1947 Israel has committed 50 massacres and holocausts in 50 villages….” in Palestine caused a political tremour in the German, Euro – Atlantic and Israeli politics and it was condemned by them all. Moreover, the German police filed a criminal suit against him for “inciting hatred” but Abbas immunity as Head of State would not permit further court proceedings. There is no doubt that such statements do not serve peace, approachment and undertanding between Israel and Palestine, but just add more “ oil to the fire”.
© 2022 Argumentum
