REAL POLITIK NO. 82
19 JANUARY – 16 FEBRUARY 2025
With “ flash” comments on 4 major events in only 1000 words by the well-known analyst,
DR. JORGJI KOTE
1.The law of force over the force of law! This is the great danger after the advent to power of President Trump with his “ the diplomacy of power”. Which means that the fundamental principle of the last 80 years of applying the “ force of international law” in solving problems and frictions in bilateral and multilateral international relations is to be settled through the law of force; i.e. the largest, the strongest, the richest and the most developed state will dictate with its might and will over international law – multilateral treaties, agreements and organizations. Reactivating in this way the previous failed doctrine of “ balance of powers”
The problem is that it was exactly this doctrine that led mankind to two bloody wars and many orter armed conflicts. It was the failure and denounciation of that doctrine that led to the establishment of multilateral organizations and agencies as the UN, the World Bank, the IMF and the continental ones as NATO, the EU, the Council of Europe where all the Member States discussed in a constructive spirit, with relevant concessions and compromises and on equal footng for the peaceful treatment and settlement of conflicts. True, there has been and there are problems and disagreements among them; yet, they have been functioning well, showing in this way that they are the best and safest alternative for lasting peace, stability and security.
Meanwhile, the application of this doctrine with violence or force on even occupying different countries would set a dangerous precedent everywhere in the world. If for example the USA would resort to the use of force against Panama or Groenland then who could hinder China to occupy Taivan, Russia the Baltic states and thus the “ domino effects” would continue, repeating the mortal scenarios of the period before 1945.
2. Multilateral diplomacy will be the victim of the implementation of this doctrine. In more concrete terms, the multilateral organizations – the UN, the Council of Europe, WHO, UNESCO, NATO, the EU and the regional ones. Actually, just as 5 years ago, President Trump rushed to announce the exit from the Paris Climate Treaty, the Human Rights Council in Geneva, WHO, there are discussions to leave UNESCO and others. With the unilateral tariffs on steel imports the USA is practically going out of the World Trade Organization and it si acting against the Criminal International Tribunal in the Hague. Now we are waiting with great concern the US attitude vis à vis NATO and the EU, especially concerning lasting peace in the Ukraine, in the Middle East, in the Ballkan and elsewhere. But as we mentioned, to damage and impair these organizations would considerably weaken the efficiency of international law and it would encourage the law of the strong over international law. Although such hot dossiers as global warming, climate, crime, environment, pandemics and others can be resolved only in a multilateral way and no country alone, however great and strong cannot do that alone.
3. Euro-Atlantism in danger! Even worse, the above-mentioned measures, accompanied with the neglect and trade war against the EU, by weakening NATO and others would have their impact on the West, its role and even its survival. Thus, Europe as a vital part of the West can find itself oppressed as “a sandwhich” between the USA, China and Russia, divided for the first time after the last 100 years from its Altantic part, i.e. the USA. However, the EU was established as a project of peace, economic prosperity and liberal democracy. Meanwhile, it was US – led NATO that would ensure its security and defence. It is this paradigm that could be spoiled if Trump Administration would apply the doctrine of the law of force. When one had never thought that one day, a US President would come and break this historic alliance and divide the West. Therefore, the EU has started its preparations to defend iself in case of danger and even without the USA. This would be a long, costly process and without the necessary guarantees if the USA would take care only about thelselves. Together with its defence, it would compromise the essential values and principles of liberal democracy, which ios the hallmark of the West. Thus, the latter would be split into parts, and be replaced by invented things already known and with unforeseeable effects on the world realpolitik. Although in different forms, there would reappear the destructive occurences, conflicts and wars of a century ago provoked also by the far right forces which are on the offensive in Europe and worldwide.
4. Munih split the West! This can be said after the annual Security Conference in Munchen ( 14 – 16 February ) The address with a blatant language by the US Vice President Vance shocked and disappointed all EU leaders and representatives. 18 years ago the audience there was stunned by Putin, this time by its greatest and historic ally.”No danger from abroad, from China, Russia, no “ walls” against the far right, don’t impair free speech and dont send in prison oppositionn leaders! No mention of Russia and Ukraine; USA will sit on the table with Moscow without the EU, without its territories prior to 2014, no NATO accession, no US but EU troops in the border; besides, the USA will demand Ukraine to pay back with its rare minerals 500 Billion Dollars of itsaids. The EU should buy gas and weapons from USA, otherwise, it will whip it with taxes and duties! In short, the USA unleashed the first major split with the western block. Accordingly, the EU, starting with Paris Summit on 17 Februry should apply the principle “ Two hands for one head”. It will take the situation in its own hands, be seriously prepared for defence if it wants peace. It is high time to put an end to its dilemmas, it should “show its teeth and muscles”; it should display its historic courage and resolution. ”Now or never”, this is the logos of the Paris Summit. To be able to survive, to defend itself, its fundamental values, principles and interests against any domestic and foreign danger.Sharing the belief that the day will come when its historic alliance with USA be revived and revitalized, because “ blood can turn into water”!
© 2025 Argumentum
