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By Philip Acey*
The public feud between Trump and Zelenskyy captured global attention, with significant implications for Canada: the transactional diplomacy of the US and signalling it is not bluffing when it comes to America First.
Canada’s political rhetoric is at a crossroads over our nation’s future alliances, with major implications for national security. Former Deputy Prime Minister Freeland’s suggestion that Canada could replace the US with Europe for defence dependence is disconnected from reality. The approach by Canadian leadership to attempt to turn the American population against the Trump administration is a serious misstep because the Canadian government fundamentally misunderstands the purpose of the tariffs and what the US government is trying to accomplish.
The conflict in Ukraine is a war for the future of the international system. Its outcome will either solidify American hegemony or be a victory for Russia and those advocating for a multipolar world.
What matters most for the US is maintaining an international system where it holds the leadership role. The resolution of the conflict in Ukraine matters more for securing America’s dominant position than for Trump’s legacy.
What is clear is Europe and Canada not acknowledging their dependence on the US for defence, prosperity, and global influence. The US covers upwards of 70% of NATO’s expenditures and significant portions of the UN and peacekeeping budgets. Without US intelligence, military and financial aid, Ukraine likely cannot survive as a sovereign nation, even with increased efforts from Europe and Canada. Europe and Canada acknowledge their recent peace initiative for Ukraine depends on US approval.
This shows the current international system relies on American leadership. America’s immense defence expenditures and close political and economic relations are a major reason why Canada has been able to underspend on national security and defence for decades.
Trump’s tariffs have not aimed to harm Canada, Europe or Ukraine. Instead, looking at the grand strategic picture, the US is seeking to restructure the unipolar international system in its own interests, and this includes restructuring the American government and its economy. This will ensure a better position for the US to continue taking the lead to counter systemic challengers, primarily China and Russia, which is in the West’s – and Canada’s – interest.
A multipolar world, where China, Russia and the Global South hold greater influence, may be acceptable to the US and Europe to some degree. However, such a shift could marginalize Canada in global affairs.
Canada must align itself strategically according to its realities. The reality for Canada is that we are a North American and Arctic nation. We are also a state with an ideology, not an ideology with a state, like Iran or Afghanistan. This means the Canadian government needs to protect our values and national interests while being pragmatic to make compromises in maintaining an essential economic and defence partnership with the US. Without unprecedented realignment and investment that no Canadian leader has ever envisioned, we must depend on the US for defence, prosperity, and a place at the table of global leaders (i.e. G7).
As the Arctic region grows in strategic importance due to improved access as well as an increase in natural resource extraction and permanent military infrastructure from allied and adversarial nations, Canada will need to become more dependent on an external actor to provide for our defence.
Protecting Canada’s Arctic sovereignty and deterring Russia and China requires US leadership. Canada’s pledges and actions regarding Arctic development and its defence presence is positioned in such a way that we are counting on the US to play a leading role in ensuring Canadian national security. Our European partners will never be able to replace the US.
Therefore, Canada’s current political, economic, and defence alliance with the US is an existential necessity. The international system is shifting and its outcome is yet to be fully realized. Trump is working to cement American global leadership in the face of systemic challengers, which involves pressuring Europe, Canada and other nations to conduct affairs in a way that is more beneficial to US interests. Aiding the US in this restructuring – which means agreeing to deals that are fairer according to American interests – means a stronger long-term future for Canada and
Europe if we would realize it. However, the current nationalist fervor coming from Europe and Canada and its hostility towards the US risks the future of the unipolar international system that has immensely benefitted Canada since the end of WWII.
Instead of turning the US and Trump into a punching bag, the Canadian government and Canadian society needs to think strategically according to its long-term national interests, instead of being emotional in a way that could further weaken its negotiating position with the US. Do Canadians not realize that the EU, Japan, and South Korea also place tariffs on Canadian agricultural products, one of Canada’s major exports?
In this environment of tariffs and negotiations, Canada needs to engage with the US in a way that is in our national interest yet acknowledges reality. Otherwise, Canada will need to invest unprecedented resources in defence independence and economic diversification, which I believe no Canadian politicians can truly comprehend. In the latter, even if successful, the results won’t be apparent for years, putting the country at risk of a prolonged recession and lower quality of life for Canadians. There is only one realistic option for Canadian prosperity and national security: a strong US-Canada alliance.
*Philip Acey is a PhD Candidate from Canada and independent political researcher whose research over the past decade has been used to brief the UN Security Council, UN agencies, diplomats, and humanitarian organizations across Europe, Asia, Africa, and South America.
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