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REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 49
1 – 17 JULY 2023
Grand Master Dr. Jorgji KOTE « dots the « I’s» and crosses the “t’s » on 4 major diplomatic events in only 1000 words
1.Open Balkans closed! It was done in distress and after the growing German pressure, since on 16 October, its “ rival”, the Summit of the Berlin Process is due to be held in Tirana. Thus, the ultimatum, Berlin or Belgrade, no way for both!
This is why even this closure was proclaimed unilaterally and in haste in Podgorica, in a Press Briefing with PM Rama and his Montenegrin host, PM Abazovic. Only only a few months after Prime Minister Rama had announced that the “Open Balkans” Summit would take place there at Abazovic’s invitation! This unilateraless was also seen in the public hesitations expressed by President Vuçiç and PM Kovacevski in their meeting with PM Rama on 7 July. Actually, PM Rama did not have any other “exit” since as they say, “ pilaf could not hold water any more”!
Moreover that finally, the EU and Germany are seriously thinking on possibly imposing sanctions this time against Serbia, with “Open Balkans” included, because due to the latter, things in the region went “from bad to worse”. Therefore, they hope that keeping way from “ Open Balkans” just three months ahead of its Tirana Summit, although it was a very belated decision would save Rama’s face and Albania from negative effects in its road to EU membership.
2. A failed tour was the one that PM Rama made on 6-7 July in five region’s capitals, on the occasion of the Berlin Process Summit in Tirana on 16 October. With a bad start, by giving the impression of a Balkan’s tour by a global leader, when it was merely a matter of some preparatory consultative exchange of ideas for that Summit, i.e. agenda, programe and procedures. Besides, there was almost no prior diplomatic communication with parties involved and particularly with official Pristina. Moreover that Rama’s visit there followed some serious political “ shockwaves” after he submited on his own to Brussels, Paris and Berlin a draft for the association of communes with serbian majority and a proposal for an international Conference on Kosovo; both without even a phone call with Kosovo’s leadership; then came the last minute unilateral cancellation of the joint meeting between the two governments and then no invitation to PM Kurti for Clinton’s visit in Tirana on 3 July. Hence, PM Rama in Pristina “ reaped what he sowed”.
His meetings in Skopje, Sarajevo and Belgrade were also not free from incidents, as the disaccordance on “Open Balkans” closure. Even worse, this tour was followed by two huge scandals in Tirana, which cast shadows over Rama’s capacities as region’s mediator. No one can say ever how much consoling was even the Informal Tirana Summit on 17 July, yet without PM Kurti.
Accordingly, even the credits he gained through Clinton’s visit went in vain!
3.Right is might! Finally, on 10 July, it was announced a deal between the EU and Kosovo to implement the recommanded measures for the de-esclation of tensions in Northern Kosovo. As we have mentioned earlier, under democratic standards, PM Kurti and Kosovo have the right on their side concerning their attitudes on these tensions. However, the big problem is that Pristina does not have the might to apply them. Whereas the USA, EU and NATO have the might to impose their will for the sake of larger geopolitical interests. This is why we should listen, obey nd act in line with them, because in the final analysis they are our greatest allies with much more larger interests. Besides, there should be not even a bit of sovranism now when Kosovo aspires to join the EU and NATO. True, maybe it will have to hand over part of its sovereignty but only to our allies; but, in exchange, Kosovo will benefit much more in all respects.
4.The Ukrainian dilema for NATO! The Hamletian Shakespeare’s dilemma “ to be or not to” be is common knowledge! But after 24 February 2022 there is another much larger dilemma, which was on the top of agenda of the NATO Summit in Vilnius on 11 – 12 July: ” Ukraine, to be or not to be in NATO? ” If yes, now, tomorrow or when?”
This new historic dilemma for Ukraine in NATO was reflected after many discussions also in the Summit Final Declaration. Although the response was not the one Ukraine expected, Vilnius marked an historic step forward ny mentioning for the first time ever the “ membership invitation” certainly when all will agree and when the relevant conditions are met.
Likewise, it was adopted and on 12 July it met for the first time under the chairmanship of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and President Zelenski the NATO-Ukraine Council, the top level security and crisis forum for both sides. Meanwhile, NATO did also remove the implementation by Ukraine of the Membership Action Plan( MAP), which would certainly shorten the procedures and speed up its NATO accession.
Thus, we come naturally to the second major geopolitical issue which assumes greater significance now that Ukraine’s NATO membership is postponed – the necessary security assurances for in Ukraine. Vilnius welcomed President Biden’s idea to apply in Ukraine the so – called “Israeli model” with US support for security and defence. On this basis, the USA provides Israel each year with 3,5 Billion Euro for the modernization of military technique and armaments.
In this regard, certainly a great achievement of this Summit was the declaration by the G- 7 in Vilnius on 12 July on providing the necessary guarantees for Ukraine’s security and support in its struggle against the russian offensive on the air, land and sea and to deter Russia from any other future attack against Ukraine. Thus, the group of supporters with the 7 most powerful and democratic states in the world is the greatest safeguard for Ukraine’s security, defence and final victory. Likewise, in Vilnius it was also announced the establishment of a coalition with 11 states, which udertakes to train the Ukrainian pilots of the F – 16 military planes that will be delivered to Ukraine later on.
Finally, the best and most consensual option, as the Vilnius Summit showed is the combination of defence and security guarantees with the continuation of the western support with armaments and ammunition for Ukraine until the final victory and after the war its rapid accession as NATO’s 33d member.
© 2023 Argumentum
