China in the Western Balkans: myths and realities

Marjana DODA

China’s pragmatic approach to our region is often translated as Beijing’s influence, which aims to advance its geo-strategic interests in the Balkans.

But China is not a new actor in the region. Beijing and the former Yugoslav countries have had close diplomatic, economic, and cultural ties for decades

Also, Albania and China have a longstanding diplomatic relationship.

For Albanians during the communist era, friendship with China was of special importance, both in political and ideological terms, as well as in economic development and military empowerment.

In this article, we will analyze precisely the economic and cultural engagement of China with the countries of the Western Balkans with each of these countries, which currently – three decades after the system change –  are in deep political and economic transition.

The Balkans feel trapped, being at a crossroads between the East and the West, starting from its geostrategic position, the Balkan wars, and conflicts, so undoubtedly the peoples of the Balkans need greater economic support.

However, every time it is tried to create alliances and partnerships with China, it is seen as a deviation of these countries from the Euro-Atlantic course, mythologizing any Chinese investment in these countries.

“If Europe does not provide a perspective for the future [for the six non-EU countries of the Western Balkans], China, Russia, or another influential actor will”, this phrase is commonly used as the only card to accelerate the EU accession process for the six countries of the Western Balkans.

In this analysis, we will see how China’s approach to the six non-EU countries of the Western Balkans does not hinder the interests of the EU in the Balkans, on the contrary, it becomes an important lever for the faster economic movement of these countries towards European integration.

They talk about the advantages, gains, and priorities of the region’s integration into the EU, but they have never talked about the obligations they have before and after the accession of the Western Balkans to the European family.

However, in any case, the Balkans is at the heart of the EU and does not belong to any other continent, but in a globalized world, it is an advantage that a country as an economic superpower has its eyes on us.

 The discourse of the EU

It was June 2003, when in the “Thessalonica Declaration” at the EU-Western Balkans summit it was unequivocally stated that “the future of the Balkans is within the European Union”. Since then, only Slovenia and Croatia have joined the EU, respectively in 2004 and 2013. Today, among the six Western Balkans membership countries, Montenegro and Serbia have already started EU membership negotiations, in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Albania and North Macedonia received the green light to open membership negotiations in 2020, but negotiations have not yet begun; while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo remain potential candidates.

Well, today is 20 years since the Thessaloniki Summit of the European Union where the EU Perspective for the region was promised; and Freedom of Movement for the Western Balkans, we are still at a crossroads.

The internal challenges of the EU (in particular, the financial crisis of 2008-2009) the migration/refugee crisis, and Brexit have completely sidelined the enlargement policy within the EU. Also, the geopolitical developments in the global arena starting from the Arab Spring and the Syrian conflict in the south until the Russia-Ukraine conflict have delayed the enlargement process and also partially reduced the interest from the Balkans.

But on the other hand, the Western Balkans, as never before, is experiencing a mass departure/migration of the citizens due to the economic situation and not only.

“They are getting old, they are dying, they are leaving”. This is the title of a recent article in the well-known magazine The Economist, which deals with the phenomenon of shrinking the population of the Balkan countries.

“The numerous problems of the region push young, talented people to leave. Throughout the Balkans, populations are shrinking and aging, and if the situation doesn’t change even more will leave,” the article notes.

In the graph presented by The Economist, it is predicted that Albania’s population will be reduced by 26% by 2050, compared to 1989. This is the biggest contraction in the Balkans, except Bosnia (-37%)- ( Monitor note). Montenegro, with 3%, and Kosovo, with 11%.

And the narrative goes that “China is a threat”…?

The risk of “Chinese influence” in the region dominates as an argument in political rhetoric, not only in domestic politics but also in the discourse of European diplomacy.

In analyses, research papers, etc., China is seen as an obstacle for the Balkans in the EU, and that risks undermining the values of the EU. But no one talks about the excellent political-economic relations that China has with the countries of the European Union, whether with the official institutions of the EU or its member countries.

This, according to old Albanian proverbs, translated into “do what I say and not what I do”, is becoming an obstacle to the economic development of the Western Balkan countries.

Surprisingly, it is the same countries that are skeptical about a relationship between China and the Balkans… which has been in the Balkans for decades.

China, for the sake of truth, is a supporter of the integration of the Western Balkans into the EU. So far, China’s investment in infrastructure and energy projects in Western Balkan countries has helped spur regional economic growth, promote regional connectivity, and ultimately improve the local business environment, thereby helping these countries eventually join the EU.

Unlike other powers, what makes China’s policy and cooperation with other countries, as well as with Albania, positive is that Beijing’s policy does not interfere in internal affairs.

The myth of the “debt trap”

The presence of Chinese investments in the Balkans through its “Belt and Road Initiative”, the new Silk Road connecting East and West – more than an opportunity for development, is interpreted as a danger for the region.

Trade relations between China and the Western Balkans have grown over the past decade, although the EU still remains the region’s main trading partner, accounting for over 70% of total trade volume. China has become the region’s second or third most important trading partner. Trade reached $6.3 billion in 2020, according to the United Nations’ Comtrade database.

China provides funding, both grants and loans, mainly for equipment and infrastructure development. While every activity of China in Greece, Serbia, Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia, and Herzegovina, or Hungary is viewed with suspicion, and its investments are called “debt diplomacy”, no one analyzes the other multilateral lenders in our region such as World Bank, European Investment Bank, and EBRD, IMF as well as the Regional Cooperation Council (RCC) in Sarajevo.

Of course, it is assumed that being European financial actors, we cannot have any doubts about their good intentions, but on the other hand, like any loan, grant, or financial agreement from the EU, apart from their rules, we can say that they are not always perfect.

Of course, there is also corruption with EU funds, delays in investments, etc. However, I do not see Chinese or European investments as substitutes for each other in the Balkans, but as complementary in the economic development of our region.

It should be emphasized that the investment of Chinese enterprises in the Balkan region not only solves the problem of the survival of industrial enterprises but also promotes local employment and local economic development. A good example is China Hegang’s acquisition of the almost-bankrupt Serbian steel mill Smederevo. After the Chinese company took over, it not only activated the old factory but also solved the employment issues of nearly 5,000 people. The Stanari power plant built by Shanghai Dongfang Electric in Bosnia and Herzegovina also produces clean energy that meets EU environmental standards. and provides local demand for electricity as well as employment. The B project of the Kostolac power plant in Serbia, built by China Machinery, not only brought new technology and improved the original backward production capacity of the enterprise, but also guaranteed the livelihood of residents, promoted the development of the country’s energy industry and ensured Serbia’s electricity supply.

And this is a reality that they try to hide under the propaganda of the “debt trap” myth.

However, today we must focus on two main points from the attention of a country with an economic superpower such as China;

Economic development, benefiting from the arrival of Chinese investors, lenders, and tourists in the Balkan peninsula.

And

Geopolitical development, being the focus of institutional and global actors for this region, due to the geographical position

Can we benefit from China?

It is known that China has built solid diplomatic relations with Albania and has cooperation in several fields. China is an important investor in Albania and has helped develop major infrastructure projects in the country.

In economic terms, China remains an important partner of Albania. Delegations of high government levels, and not only those, are best witnessing this process. Thanks to past cooperation, Chinese professionals are the best connoisseurs of our country’s resources.

Therefore, cooperation between Albania and China can be effective in several different areas:

– Economy: China is one of the most powerful economies in the world, with rapid growth and large production capacities. Cooperation in the field of trade, investment, and infrastructure can help in the development of the Albanian economy and the subsequent creation of jobs.

-Energy: Albania has rich natural energy resources again, especially in the hydropower sector. China has experience and technology in building hydropower and energy infrastructure. Energy cooperation can help Albania improve energy production and diversify its resources.

-Infrastructure: China is one of the world leaders in the field of infrastructure and construction of roads, tunnels, ports, and airports. Cooperation with China in this sector can help Albania improve its infrastructure and expand international connections.

– Education and culture: Cooperation in the field of education and culture can increase international interaction and knowledge between the two countries. The exchange of students, professors, and scientific researchers can bring progress at the educational level and the creation of new cultural contacts.

– Tourism: Albania has great tourist potential. China has a large population of tourists interested in exploring different places. Cooperation in the field of tourism can increase the number of visitors and create opportunities for economic development. The visa waiver agreement earlier this year with China is a big step in this direction.

All these pictures, seen in the context of a troubled world that has recently become more unclear about its perspective, make relations with China of special importance. Leaving behind the policies of skepticism towards China and its initiatives in the Western Balkans, maybe it will help us to know, understand, and above all trust each other. People have always suffered from dogmas, ideologies, and policies that have only built walls, while we need bridges of cooperation, for as much understanding and prosperity as possible, and those should be the policy priority of every country.

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