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REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 62
2 – 19 JANUARY 2024
On 4 major diplomatic events briefly with only 1.000 words by
Dr. Jorgji KOTE, Grand Master
1. EU Belgian Presidency of crises and conflicts during the first half 2024. Belgium itself will go to municipal, regional and federal elections on 6 June in the same day with European elections, whose campaign is just starting. The greatest challenge is the neutralization of attempts by the far right to boost its representation in the highest EU Forum. After being in power in Italy, Slovakia, Finland, the Netherlands and with a growing pressure in France, Germany, Spain and elsewhere.
One of the major conditions to avoid this is that within March, the EU Summit should reach the long – awaited consensus on the Migration Pact. The illegal asylum in the last 8 years stands over EU as “ Damocles sword”. Moreover, 2023 broke the record year 2015 with over 1 million asylum – seekers.
Then, it is the US presidential elections, decisive for USA, Europe and Transatlantism in general.
Two other major challenges are the war between Russia and Ukraine that on 24th of February enters its third year on which ARGUMENTUM has written a lot.
The next serious challenge is in Middle East following the escalation of the situation and violence following the Hamas terrorist attack againt Israel on 7 Octobre 2023. The problem now is to strengthen the EU geopolitical role, since until now it has been more an onlooker and aids donator. The political puzzle there is very complicated and explosive. It does not permit even a short pause of war to help the civilian population with food and medicaments, let alone a sustainable peace there.
The two other challenges are in Western Balkans. Here the biggest concern is the prolonged dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, the implementation of Brussels and Ohri Agreement and the association of communes with Serbian majority. However, since the western mediators are “out of sight and out of game” albeit the diplomatic euphemisms, no breathrough is expected. Despite its permanent willingness to support the region, the EU Belgian presidency is forced to follow the principle “ pull it but not cut it” until the new political leaders will be elected in the EU and USA.
Nothing is expected either on EU Enlargement to the Balkans; for Albania, it is necessarily demanded the solution of the case “Beleri”, otherwise our negotiations will be postponed indeed in the Greek calendas.
Nonetheless, there is room for a moderate optimism, for Belgium has all the oportunities, European traditions, experience and human resources.
Thus, in the last four decades, its Prime Miisters, the late Wilfried Martens and Luc de Haene, up to Guy Verhofstadt used to be respectively president of the People’s Party Group and Vice Chair of the EU Constitution Commission and Chair of the EU Liberal Group in the EU Parliament. Former PM Herman van Rompuy was president of he EU Council during 2009 – 2014, whereas Charles Michel from 2019 until now.
2. EU will miss Delors! This is the case after 5 January when Europe bid is final farewell to emblematic European, Jacques Delors. Undoubtedly the greatest EU Commission President ( 1984 – 1994) thanks to his integrity, personality and great vision; he enabled Europe through its ground – breaking achievements in those decisive years and paved the way to new glamorous successes. Schengen was created in 1985, the Single Market in 1986, the foundations of Euro were laid down, the collapse of communism in Central an Eastern Europe, the start of Enlargement with the East, the Treaty of Maastriht in 1992 and many others. This great french socialist imposed with his logic, authority and soft power to all other EU highest instances. No one else before and after him did achieve such peaks; because despite beautiful words and pledges, the EU top leaders now are elected more with political deals and calculations, without any particular vision and soft power.
3. A welcome regional tour was the one that the Albanian Foreign Minister, Igli Hasani made on 14 – 17 January in Skopje, Pristina and Podgorica. He met there the highest state, government and diplomatic leaders with the results already known. What it should be stressed here is the value and usefulness of such diplomatic tour and its messages; specifically concerning “the warming up” of relations with Kosovo. We say this because till now we are used to see and hear everywhere only or largely Prime Minister Rama. Its different when in the diplomatic game “ plays” our Chief diplomat, since in this way even the diplomatic hierarchy is observed; accordingly, it creates opportunities and more space for interventions and adjustments. Thus, better conditions are also produced for the nomalization and strengthening of relations also among Prime Ministers, especially with Kosovo after the well-known splits of the past.
4. Ice – Cold outside and politically hot inside Davos was during 15 – 19 January when the 54th Session of the World Davos Forum took place in Swiss Alps on “ Rebuilding trust” . Although no decision is taken, the presence there is a “Must” for top political leaders. True, outside it was ice – cold, but inside the halls it was so stifling hot, a political heat. Because unlike before, when Davos dealt with one or two hot political and economic issues, this time it was overcrowded with snow, chaos, conflicts and crises; the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the just struggle of the latter, the need for peace although for the time being is just wishful thinking; the rifts between USA and China over Taivan….; then the conflict which risks to escalate in Middle East, with several challenges and unknowns. Israel is warned to be cautious and proportionate in his military responseses and observe international law; Hamas to stop violence and hand over the kidnapped, the Palestinian Authority be prepared to assume responsibility for governing Gaza tomorrow, the need for a cease fire and then sustainable peace with two states, Israeli and Palestine in peace and safety.
In our region, the crisis between Serbia and Kosovo escalated after the terrorist attack by Serbian gangs in Banjskw on 24 September 2023 and the threat by Bosnian serbs about a possible separation. Not to mention illicit migration, climatic changes and global warming, AI and others. A real explosive agenda in a few days in Davos for 60 Heads of State/Government, 300 hundred ministers and huindreds of experts and others in Davos.
© 2024 Argumentum
