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REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 68
1 – 30 PRILL 2024
On 5 major diplomatic events briefly with only 1.000 words by
DR. JORGJI KOTE
Grand Master in Diplomacy
1.Neither dead nor alive can be said about the meetings in Brussels in the context of the dialogue Belgrade – Pristina. As mentioned last time, they take place just to “ put Kola at work” as we say in Albania”. Particularly this year no one really cares about it; they are engaged with other major pressing issues, which would define the destiny of dialogue itself! Above all, there are the decisive European and American elections. Then, Serbia’s aggressive opposition to Kosovo’s membership in the Council of Europe may undermine both the dialogue and the Ohrid Agreement. This is why this dialogue is neither on the “earth nor on the sky”. Hence, its better to wait for 2025, this time with an entirely new western strategy, new negotiators and mindsets!
2. Oxygene for the German economy! This was also confirmed during the visit by the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in China ( 14 – 16 Prill).
In his meeting with President Xi, the latter renewed the message of the EU – China Summit last December in Peking that “de-coupling and de-risking with China are not realistic and productive options and that relations with China are not a risk but an opportunity for development”.
Last year official Berlin endorsed the new strategy on China, which emphasizes that foreign policy would rely on values and principles”. Although this sounds beautiful music, its implementation in the vital economic area is almost impossible.
Perhaps this is why Chancellor Scholz started his three – day visit in China in commercial Schongqing tregtar, among the largest world cities with 32 million inhabitants, with 84 German companies active there, continued to economic Shangaj and ended it in political Peking. In his second visit within two years there, while his predecessor, Chancellor Merkel visited Peking 14 times in 16 years in power!
Now, as for the large German economic dependency from China, no one is to blame, even less China; besides the abundant German benefits. Thus, in 2019, the German sales to China represented 48,5 per cent of European exports; economy has become a decisive factor for the German government survival and electoral success. During 2023, the German economic growth was 0,1 from 1, 3 per projected, whereas the Chinese economy grew 5,3 from projected 4,5 per cent. For the eightth consecutive year, China is the largest commercial partner for Germany. Accordigly, without exports and investments in China, the German economy has little chances of survival.
Actually, the “ ugly truth” is that most recently, despite debates on the future economic cooperation with China, in general the German might is closely connected with the economy and trade relations with China.
3. Strategic autonomy for Europe!
Both during the visit in Peking last year and in his latest address in the famous Sorbonne University on this 25 April, the French President Macron urged the strengthening of inter-European relations, without damaging but also without being totally dependent on the US alliance. He stressed the vision on ” European strategic autonomy”; voicing himself against the crises that do not belong to Europe and inhibit the functioning of this autonomy. He reinforced this idea in more concrete terms with concrete proposals in the security and defence field. Although as they say “ this is easily said than done”
Macron’s speech in Sorbonne is a continuation and complementary to his vision on a strong and united Europe, which should be autonomous from the USA in its geopolitical decision – making processs. This is also seen as a precaution to avoid a possible victory by the nationalists of Le Pen in the upcoming European elections on this 9 June.
4. Ok with summits and visits, but where is “the meat”? For the second time within 5 months following the meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden in USA and previous visits by other senior US officials, the Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was on a working visit in China from 23 – 25 April. The results of this visit are well-known. Yet, they show that the US policy vis à vis China is not working and it has little chances to yield fruits without designing and applying a clear-cut and well-conceived strategy, with “both feet on the ground”, before imposing sanctions and punitive actions. Caution is needed, since we are talking on a gigandic state that “can do either a lot of damage or a lot of good”! Moreover, when even smaller states seem not to pay heed to your word! Apparently, the USA lack a diplomatic arch strategist as Kisinger. Whereas China is making a much better use of situations, both with the USA and Russia, telling the latter to be cautious for it is paying such a high price for its support! To cut it short, its ok to come and go to Peking and Washington, but the problem is with the “ meat” i.e. the product which is not visible. Let us hope!
5. Albania is not protected only by the Prime Minister! There are many discussions these days on the responses by Prime Minister Rama to RAI 3. We are nto agaist it, but the problem is that the Prime Minister is there to govern and not to give opinions, make comments, play the spokesman or even make “war” with words against foreign televisions! Otherwise, what could happen if other televisions broadcast documentaries like RAI 3, what could the Prime Minister do then? Therefore, the best solution is that instead the PM, let his spokesman or the Media Agency appear, with a tough but cultured language and ask to disregard the news, otherwise, go to the court!. We do say this since the Prime Minister has a whole network of institutions that should do their job without overpassing the state hierarchy and with no need for Prime Minister’s calls on domestic and even less foregn televisions. Except the case when a Prime Minister is author, then ok, our PM should respond! Otherwise, it is impossible for him to respond himself to all, at home and abroad, day and night; for there is no time, no sense, no possibility and no result out of this! Albania is protected by every one and not only by the Prime Minister!
© 2024 Argumentum
