Dr. J. Scott Younger*
The months of June and July been earmarked by displaying the hottest period of the century, certainly in much of Europe. A few decades ago it was warned that this might happen and, in general, we would have to get used to a new hotter norm, as discussed at the UN climate conference in Paris, 2015.
The last period In UK politics has been taken up by the governing party in a somewhat surprising change in the Prime Minister. How this plays out in the months ahead remains to be seen and how this affects UK’s responses to the war in Ukraine will hold people’s attention, although immediate responses would indicate the same and perhaps more assistance given. The other matter once again to hold attention is how the government handles refugees. In hindsight, one could have predicted that this would happen but when does government ever learn! No country has found a totally workable solution but some countries do have an understanding kinder than others. Human breeding!
Furthermore, directly away from the Middle East, there have been moves in Myanmar, with a change in the leadership of the usurping military dictatorship, not for the ‘better’ as far as the general population is concerned. The new leadership are exercising a much tougher stance, which has given rise to an upsurge in fighting, a civil war perhaps. This is a messy situation, which impinges on the western margin of ASEAN and is likely to continuing spilling over into the eastern edge of the Indian sub-continent, particularly into Bangladesh. A peace deal for the area will necessarily involve China who have an arrangement with Myanmar for access to Southern Africa, which is important for trade and influence. There is no sign of this ending soon.
The Middle East: Testing the Prospects for Peace in Gaza and Beyond
Back to the Middle East, which tends to dominate world affairs, largely because the US is involved through its long-standing cooperation with Israel. The far right of the Israeli government would wish to keep the US involved in the current unsettled situation, on the grounds that they feel that that would allow them to go on ‘stealing’ land that was/is earmarked as belonging to the Palestinians. To date, Israel has continued to press and slowly take over pieces of the Palestinian territory of the west bank without little more than only verbal protest.
A few weeks ago, President Trump tabled the idea of a ‘Board of Peace’ to which different groups of the world would join, e.g. ASEAN, the EU, China, India, and possibly even Russia! Not surprisingly, Israel has been noted by its non-attendance. The first order of business, was that the main protagonists holding up the redevelopment of the destroyed Gaza strip, would disarm.
Possibly, the first breakthrough has just been achieved with Hamas agreeing to the Peace proposal and prepared to disarm in parallel with the IDF. There has been no response by the Israelis so far. The redevelopment of the strip will take several years to effect, if not a decade such was the extent of the damage brought about by the IDF. The Trump peace plan for not only Gaza but the comprehensive establishment of a Palestinian state is very gradually taking shape.
However, it will undoubtedly face opposition from the far-right Israelis. It will be a severe test of Trump’s resolve and he has gained a reputation for having only a short- term attention span among other narcissus shortcomings. Success needs, however, long-term staying power involving many years of endeavour in a continuous atmosphere of peace in a troublesome location where there is little trust between the Palestinians and Israelis. Trump recently, following a quick meeting in NY, is discussing having the Israeli PM, Netanyahu, involved, which has raised some queries. It is very early days yet; a long way to go.
Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: Diplomacy Amid the Risk of Escalation
Meanwhile, the sporadic fighting with Iran continues, mainly aerial projectiles, but the Saudis, UAE, Qatar, etc have asked Trump to hold off for a time, while they attempt together to reach a satisfactory agreement with the Iranians to resolve the Hormuz Strait disagreement. The American President has concurred but reminds the parties that he is standing by to bomb Iran into oblivion if they don’t make a deal! Oman and Iran, each holding one side of the Hormuz Strait, have just opened discussion and there is some hope indeed that a solution may be found without Trump having to resort to his threatened action. There is a long way to go before a solution that works is reached. Perhaps if the Americans can take a back seat for once and let the Arab countries resolve the matter amongst themselves a suitable compromise can be reached.
In addition, Trump can then take this issue off his agenda and concentrate on trying to find a long-lasting peace for Gaza and the West Bank and the creation of a Palestinian state despite opposition from some Israelis. There are years of hard work ahead. Whatever, it must be done. Let other regions of the world continue or even start squabbling as has happened in centuries past!
*IFIMES
