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Realpolitik “ Flash” No. 24
01 – 16 QERSHOR 2022
EXCLUSIVELY at ARGUMENTUM,
DR. JORGJI KOTE, a renowned diplomatic analyst, “ dots the i’s and crosses the t’s” on 5 major events in only 1000 words
1.Between three fires finds itself actually Open Balkans”. This was also seen in the Ohrid Summit on 8 June. The Berlin Process on one and the “ WB Common Regional Market”( CRM) on the other hand. Both were initiated and supported politically and financially by the USA and the EU. Open Balkans by itself remains halfway, although Abazovic tried to pump in some political oxigene. Everywhere the question arises that why do we need another initiative when the Process of Berlin and the CRM are more than enogh together with their well-known units and agencies – CEFTA, RCC, The Energy and Transport Reginal Community! Moreover when new facts emerge each day which show that Open Balkans is a Serbian initiative with Russian support. It was also Lavrov himself that told this, but some do not want to hear.
The third “fire” comes from Kosovo, which is absolutely right in refusing this initiative. With the above-mentioned arguments and the correct demand by PM Kurti that “ before opening the Balkans, Serbia should open itself up to Kosovo” Hence, enough is enough with propaganda! If Serbia wants indeed the Balkans to open, it should recognize its genocide, Kosovo statehood and give up its campaign of de-recognition and preventing its membership to international organizations, and right NOW! This is why Open Balkans is not between two, but three fires. How they are going to live with these “fires”, those of Open Balkans know this; but let us say bluntly that Open Balkans was born dead!
2. 2 days, 5 states and 15 problems was in a nutshell the visit by the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Pristina, Belgrade, Skopje dhe Sofja. It was very intense with 15 mega issues, quite hard to claim instant breakthroughs with the following highlights – dialogue Pristine – Belgrade and Kosovo’s recognition by Belgrade, as a precondition for its EU membership, EU visa liberaliation for Kosovo, Serbia’s aligment with the EU Common Foreign Policy and imposing sanctions against Russia, lifting Bulgaria’s veto for the opening of negotiations with Skopje and Tirana and the reinvigoration of Berlin Process. The latter was also addressed by Chancellor Scholz during the Dinner with the region’s leaders Thesaloniki. Extreme difficult issues that despite the US and EU commitment cannot be resolved with a stroke of a pen, neither with the “ magic baton”! Nonetheless, Scholz gave promising messages offering the German support.
3. Tighten the ranks! This was in fact the goal of the latest visit by the President of the EU Council, Charles Michel on 14/15 June in Pristine, Belgrade, Skopje and in the SEECP Summit in Thesaloniki. We refer to the new vision that he also unfolded before in Tirana on the “ New geopolitical European community”, identical with the idea launched by President Macron, only with an additional “ geo”. An idea that has provoked many trubles, debates, suspicions and disappointments in the Western Balkans, in Ukraine and elsewhere. However, this is a solid idea now, despite the possible modifications and connotations that would be made to the final wording, which is a great EU skill. Because it is France and other powerful EU states behind this vision. Now, the problem is that in the EU Summit, on 23/24 June in Brussels, where the WB leaders are also invited, they should not make resistance but just tighten their ranks and support this new initiative. In practical terms, this will leave us in the EU second or even the third rank or circle, certainly with several benefits; with “ carrot” when things go well and sanctions, i.e. “ stick” on the opposite. As to the EU accession, as the odds are, and as we have mentioned before, it will be literally postponed in the Greek calends.
4. What remains from SEECP Summit? The Summit of the South East European Cooperation Process ( SEECP) was held in Thesaloniki on 10 June, on the occasion of the hand- over of its greek chairmanship to Montenegro. SEECP was founded in 1996 in Sofja. It is the political “ umbrella” of the Regional Cooperation Council ( RCC) which is being chaired by Albania’s politician Majlinda Bregu. Actually, after the accession of 11 former Central and Eastern states to the EU and NATO, its role is fading away and even its name is rarely mentioned. This time, it was overshadowed by the crying regional problematics mentioned above. Its atmosphere became more gloomy after Erdogan threats against Greece on the eve of this Summit. Thus, the Summit echo was almost Nil! As to the appeal by PM Mitsotakis for the EU membership of Western Balkan states in 2033, it was considered another Greek wishful thinking and no one paid heed to it! Moreover, that as it was mentioned, there could hardly be any talk after 24 June about EU negotiations and membership but just European Belonging.
Besides, even a small Greek success in the Summit was “stolen” by two Albanian – made incidents. The photos of Kosovo’s President Vjosa Osmani and PM Edi Rama, indication of abnormal relations between Kosovo and Albanian leaders. But the most serious one occurred when the Greek host, PM Mitsotakis was introducing Chancellor Scholz to the Northern Macedonian Prime Minister; he was interrupted quite undiplomatically by PM Rama, naming Kovaçevski as “PM of Western Bulgaria! This “ sour joke” was unjustifiable and offensive for the host, the Bulgarian and the Macedonian counterparts. Actually, no other western leader uses jokes, bites, parody and satires, especialy in international events; they spoil the climate, produce doubts, suspicions and misunderstandings; they do not comply with the seriousness of such situations. Let our leaders finally learn in this respect from Mario Draghi, Scholz, Merkel, Sanchez, Mitsotakis and avoid such political attitudes that the west have long ago declared “non grata”!
5. The three EU “big shots” visited Kyev on 16 June; namely President Macron, Chancellor Scholz and Prime Minister Draghi. A historic event by the leaders of three EU biggest co-founding states. With many highlights, stron promises and messages for Ukraine but also for Russia. A genuine show of EU solidarity on the side of USA! Its effects will start to be seen in the next two weeks with the EU and NATO Summits.
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