Realpolitik “ Flash” No. 33
17 – 31 OCTOBER 2022
EXCLUSIVELY at ARGUMENTUM,
1.Strategic dialogue without PM Rama took place on 25 October in Washington. Unlike other forums, although “ strategic” this one had a very low public and media echo. Even the Press Releases were very telegraphic; with generic and repeated formulations; nothing new, almost nothing on the rule of law, corruption, organized crime, the illicit asylum which is working havoc and other negative occurences that have plagued the country. Its striking feature was the absence of Prime Minister Rama. This absence was quite surprising, since he attends even municipality level events; moreover, when in the strategic dialogues with Turkey, Greece and others, the Premiers were leading their delegations. Besides, neither the briefings and statements, nor did Secretary Blinken mention Rama. Could these be signs of the political freeze with Rama, after the long “ honey moon period”? Especially since apart from Biden, all other high level politicians in Washington meet with Mr. Veliaj a few weeks ago there. Or is this a diplomatic “ NO” for Rama’s political improper behaviours, affairs and scandals? Then, Rama has announced before that in the Strategic Document, the USA will express its vigorous support for “Open Balkans”. However, the latter does not appear there. This is normal, since on 3 November the Summit of the Berlin Process will convene in Berlin, which will dismantle “Open Balkans”. Besides, it did not bring anything new and promissing, apart from splits and loggerheads even between Kosova and Albania!
2.An official or regional courtesy tour? This is the question posed after the President of EU Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen visited the region from 26 – 29 October. It was in the framework of events, summits and processes, as part of the EU historic turning point in our region; where “the cherry on the cake” is the Sumit EU – Western Balkans on 6 December in Tirana. Hers followed the visit by President of the EU Council, Charles Michel and the first regional tours by German Chancellor Scholz, Italian President, Mattarela, the Premiers of Finland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. However, Von der Leyen disappointed us because she did not give any new signal or message, just “ the old tune” evoking the Russian threat, aids for overcoming the energy crisis and compliments for the hosts; she did even meet the newly appointed President of the Serpska Republic, Dodik a ” non – grata” in the USA.
However, we heard very little or almost nothing on democracy, the alarming asylum, organized crime and scandals. Only kind words, courage, compliments and “ Everything is well!” Hard to understand this attitude when her tour occurred 10 days after the publication of the Progress Report by her Commission, with plenty of explosive problematics. Well, as a diplomat I understand that these issues were touched during official talks with closed doors. Nevertheless, given the seriousness of the situation and the EU historic momentum, it was worth mentioning, even with a soft& velvet diplomatic language/eufemisms some critical remarks for the government and why not even encouraging words for the opposition. Therefore, this regional tour was reduced to just a regional courtesy call.
3.Envoyées come and go, but dialogue No! This occurred during the shuttle tours in Belgrade, Pristina and Brussels by the Special EU and US mediators, Mr. Lajcak and Eskobar in the last two weeks. Many statements, warnings and contradictory information on the french-german model; yet, nothing, the dialogue is stucked in the mud, without signs of life. In fact, it can hardly move on since both the USA and the EU continue to ” treat Serbia on too favourable” despite their recent growing pressure. Unfortunately, they fail to see that Belgrade and Vuçiç do not want to change; look, nothing new with the new Serbian government with 4 former ministers from Milosevic era and the oath ” we swear to hold Kosovo and Metohia in Serbia” Everything else is just empty works.
The USA and the EU should understand that shuttle and soft power diplomacy do not hold any more water with Serbia; nor can things improve with carrots only; it is high time to whip the political stick to Belgrade, “ now or never!
4.A serious damage in the EU “engine“ or the french – german axis, which is going through its hardest tims. This is due to the unilateral attitudes by Chancellor Scholz in many geopolitical aspects – german funding of 200 Billion Euro to cover the energy risis, without any consultation with Paris an allies; open opposition to the proposal for a “ EU price ceiling/corridor”; objection to the French proposal for defence sovereignty; the attitude towards China, not adherring to foreign policy principles but to commercial interests, giving access to the Port of Hamburg to the giant chinese ”Coscot” and others such alike. Even a joint governmental meeting was cancelled.
Under these circumstances, Scholz and Macron dined together in Elisée on 25 October, in an effort to put and end to these grievences and keep the French-german engine working. Moreover, since there is no other alternative, particularly after the deep crisis and the Russian aggression. Certainly a solution will be found, but the question is when, how and at what cost, for the French& German axis and the whole Europe.
5.“Brexit VIP victims in the last 5 years are 4 British Prime Ministers – Cameroon, May, Johnson dhe Liz Truss, dozens of ministers and hundreds of senior officials. The four of them are Brexit artisans&partisans. Liz Truss “broke the record” for the political “life expectancy” with only 55 days in Downing Street No. 10. Even her successor, Rishi Sunak is having more glamour with his richness overtaking King Charles II and appeal to the poor “ to tighten the belt” Actually, grievences and loggerheads within the Coservative Party continue. After BREXIT, the British fell from “ frying pan into the fire” Because the generous promises cannot be delivered without Brussels benefits ansd resources.
Nonetheless, the british populists and eurosceptics don’t care for the costs; they can even “ live on grass but never join Brussels” But their French, italian, german, spannish and other homologues are clever enough not to leave the EU; instead, they prefer to take the castle from inside, by remaking an illiberal EU.
© 2022 Argumentum
