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The renowed diplomatic analyst, Dr. Jorgji KOTE “ dots the “i”s and crosses the “ ts” on 5 major events in only 1000 words.
1.Sweden/Spain without sensations! This is the expectation from the Swedish/Spannish Presidency in the first and second half 2023. As we mentioned in the previous issue, the Czech Presidency achieved all its goals, which do also extend to this year, including, in particular, Western Balkans. Thus, no other sensational achievement is envisaged from these two presidencies, apart from the continuation of the work to date by the EU. Naturally, the Russian agression in Ukraine with its multiple negative effects will continue to be at the center of attention, alongside other political and economic measures aimed at avoiding other consequences. Certainly, the Second Summit of the New European Politial Community ( EPC) in Moldova this spring wil be a political and diplomatic highlight, due to be focussed on relevant specifications concerning the character and its objectives, which still remain ambigious. Likewise, the “ ball” in Western Balkans will be played in our courts. Tirana and Skopja will continue with the scanning period until the real beginning of negociations, hopefully by 1 January 2024. Besides, Skopja has to make the necessary constitutional amendments in order to lift the Bulgarian veto; with Kosovo, the visa liberalization is expected to be taken with the relevant technical formalities, since the political decision was already taken. Bosnia – Hergovina will proceed with the relevant procedures, as a EU candidate with many “ home works”. The most worrying problem remains the dialogue Belgrade – Pristina, but it overpasses the borders of the Swedish/Spannish Presidency.
This is why, unlike the French and the Czech Presidency, the Swedish and the Spanish one will not have any special aspect, except for the routine, certainly if no surprise occurs during this year.
2.“3 Pumpkins under a single armpit and not just two” as the Albanian says go ( keep a finger in everything) will try to hold this year Northern Macedonia; it will chair the Adriatic Charter Initiative, OSCE in period of serious challenges, and the amendments to its Constitution for the implementation of the deal with Sofia, in order to pave the way to the opening of negotiations with the EU. A hard nut to crack for the political leadership in Skopje, given also the difficult political situation there and opposition demands for early elections. The most difficult are the constitutional amendments, since both the Adriatic Charter and OSCE are largely diplomatic formalities and procedures, without any public interest and impact.
Because OSCE is not the one of 20 years ago, its role and weight has considerably declined; the establishment of the EPC may be also seen as a sort of substitute for OSCE, now that Russia has trampled underfoot its rules ansd principles.
3.“ They come and go, but dialogue No!! This is happening with the dialogue Pristina – Belgrade, a genuine odysée; much fuss, words, promises, the “shuttle diplomacy” from Brussels, Washington, Berlin, Paris to Belgrade and Pristina, with appeals for dialogue, but with no dialogue to be seen. Only separate monologues. With predictions and promises for a Final Agreement on Normalisation by March. What a wishful thinking” attitude! When not the tongue used in Belgrade but especially the state of play on the ground up there promises only loggerheads and disaccords, threats, pressures, showdowns. Serbia continues to show no sign of distancing itself from its criminal past, no sign of approachment towards Kosovo’s recognition, 15 years after its independence and with a great zeal towards de-recognition campaigns! President Vuçiç declared again after meeting Mr. Chollet, Senior Advisor of US State Department that he would say 500 times that they will not recognize Kosovo!
Yet, the USA and the EU continue to “ pet” Belgrade and hold it in much more favourable terms, accepting on behalf of stability even less than recognition for Kosovo! So, nothing remains for us but to pray “ Inshallah”, since “ they come and go, but dialogue NO!
4.Croatia in Schengen! On 1 January, the EU “Schengen” was enlarged with Croatia’s accession to this huge area of freedom. A genuine historic political, economic and diplomatic victory for Croatia; it has become indeed a reference point also for our EU integration. Actually, it has always been on the front rows of Euro-Atlantic integration. Croatia ended in a record- breaking time accession negotiations within 4 years in 2008; its full- membership was delayed for 5 years only due to the Slovenian blockade.
This year it celebrates the Tenth Anniversary in the EU. A glamorous success on this jubilee! Whereas we boast that the EU organized for the first time a Summit in Tirana, 13 years after our application for EU membership, Croatia has held several such summits, much much earlier and without pump and glamour!
5.Trumpism “ wounded” in Washington and in Brasil! True, after losing the Senate and the failure of the “ red wave” in the Congress, where it gained a very slim victory, Trump and the Republicans had another political slap in their face last week in the Chamber. Their new Congress Speaker, Kevin Mc Carthy was elected only after 15 rounds of heated debates. But even this occurred after many concessions to its opponents within the Party, which could weaken its leadership and the positions of the Republicans by and large in the decision – making process. Trump suffered the next drawback in Brasil, where “ his political brother” Bolsonaro lost against socialist Lula. The latter came for the third time in power, as if to prove the proverb “ The third is lucky”! Just a week after Lula’s inauguration, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters stormed and raided the Parliament and other top level institutions. A bad imitation of the storm on 6th of January in Capitol Hill in Washington, conveying a bad image for Brasil’s democracy at its very heart!
It was rightessly condemned by all political sides in USA and Europe, but not from Trump himself. Only 20 per cent of Brasil’s population support this rebellion against a democratically elected government. These are painful losses for Trump and his candidacy in the next presidential elections 2024. However, there is room and time to draw lessons, since everything depends on the performance of the democrats in USA and President Lula in Brasil in the next two years.
© 2023 Argumentum
