REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 48
16 – 30 JUNE 2023
Grand Master Dr. Jorgji KOTE « dots the « I’s» and crosses the “t’s » on 4 major events in only 1000 words for the major diplomatic events
1.Balkan’s summer theatre started! Yes, the first regional forum opened in Struga near Ohrid Lake on 15 – 16 June with the presence of the heads of state/government of the six Western Balkan countries, experts of the region and other guests. This was in fact the debut of the Balkans summer theatre. We say so since each country during summer time hosts similar forums; they started 20 years ago but gradually they have lost their momentum and significance. Because now almost all states of region are members or candidates to the EU, NATO, OSCE, the Council of Europe and Berlin Process.
Nothing new comes from these summits, only nice words, family fotos, region’s delicatesen, tourist attractions and an active relax programs for their leaderships in this hot season. Therefore, one may call them summer theatre, talk&eating but nothing more.
2. China’s and India’s megachallenge for the USA and the West is the most serious and difficult than ever. Especially after the Russian aggresion against Ukraine and the support provided by China and India to Russia with their refusal to join sanctions against Russia. But also due to their presence in the major geopolitical grouping BRICS; true, until now with only 5 states ( Brasil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) which account 40 per cent of global population and 31,5 per cent of the global GDP from 30 per cent by the G 7 ! Even worse, in its Summit in August it is expected that 21 other large states may join BRICS, as Indonesia, Argentina, Algeria, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh and perhaps even Serbia, as its President Vuçiç implied on 18 June. Thus, BRICS could turn into a genuine gigandic challenge for the West. This is why the USA and the EU have begun to behave more moderately versus China and India.
To contain these two states, reduce tensions and continue cooperation in all areas and particularly on the economic field. However, in the latter, by reducing the major economic dependency and minimize emerging dangers, as it has occurred until now with Russia. On the other hand, the USA and the West are being more cautious concerning the expression of their reservations and criticisms for those countries on democracy, human and minority rights, ujgurs and others. This time, they were not made public. This was clearly seen during the visit by the US Secretary of State to Peking on 18/19 June, the visit by India’s PM, Modi in Washington on 21 – 23 June and by the Chinese PM Li Qiang in Berlin on the occasion of governmental consulations and in Paris for the Summit of the Global Finance Pact from 19 – 23 June. The message they gave in these visits was “ behave softly and kindly so that the frying pan be full” Moreover that the western countries should first put their own houses in order also in the field of democracy. We are not dwelling more on this point, since ARGUMENTUM during these days has mirrored at length these visits, meetings and events through many info and insights by the well-known journalist, Marjana Doda.
3.SOS from Brussels! On 26 – 27 June, PM Rama was in Brussels where he met the “ big weights” of EU and NATO. What it was striking was that they spoke mostly on the tensions in Northern Kosovo, as it was PM Kurti there and not Rama. Without any new message, since a day before the EU Foreign Ministers met in Luxembourg, with serious appeals and warnings against both sides, but largely against Kosovo. In fact, they are a reconfirmation of the lamentable position of the EU diplomacy, a negative effect of their erroneous approach, treating Belgrade as “ mother’s and Pristina as step mother’s son” With their failed appeasement policy, with the naive intention to keep Serbia away from the Russian impact and “whipping the stick” unjustly to Kosovo. In fact, the statements from the EU top officials sound like a SOS appeal asking help from Albania and PM Rama! Thus, they put him in this game. Although PM Rama has not any genuine role, impact and even less political reliability in this issue; due to his wrong attitudes vis à vis Pristina, unjustified advocacy for Belgrade up to dispatching the draft on the Association of the communes with Serbian majority to the Brussels, Berlin, Paris and Washington, without at least calling, let alone consulting his counterpart Kurti. The same applies to his proposal for an international conference which would certainly bring nothing new. Becasue, as we have emphasized earlier, the spirit, the understanding is missing there and the EU has not succeeded in sowing that spirit of conciliation and approachment.
Nonetheless, these news from in Brussels are good and in the proper time for PM Rama; they want to make him him a sort of mediator and protagonist in getting out of this deadlock; dislodge the attention from major issues at home; the 14 May election irregularities; the case Bejleri with Greece, muxhahedins; reduce EU pressure on the controversial draft laws, scandals and VIP arrests which have also exposed the dangerous thesis of “ personal responsibility” and others. Certainly, they were tackled in the European intimacy in Brussels, but they should have mentioned a word for the public as well and not simply pursuing the principle “business as usual »
Certainly, they in Brussels now that nothing would come out from PM Rama’s diplomatic demarshes. But the idea is to surround Kosovo even from its brother state, Albania and put things off until the new presidential and Europian elections 2024 are over. Then, everything with the dialogue Belgrade – Pristina would start from level zero or even minus.
4. Support, sanctions and statements!
This was the major message from the EU Summit in Brussels on 29 – 30 June. Ongoing support for Ukraine, confirmation of the condemnation of Russia’s aggression and working out different legal processes against it, the attitude to China, strengthening EU economy and defence and others. As to Kosovo and Serbia, nothing more could be expected from its Summit, just the repetition of its Statement on 3 June 2023 with the well-known 4 demands.
© 2023 Argumentum
