Realpolitik “ flash” No. 15
01 – 18 JANUAY 2022
EXCLUSIVELY at ARGUMENTUM, the renowned diplomat& analyst, “ dots the i’s and crosses the t’s” on 5 major events in only 1000 words
Dr.JORGJI KOTE
1.A great political bet is indeed the one set by President Macron, by assuming the rotating EU Presidency for this 6 month period. Due to the exceptional challenges in France and abroad, this is a hard and vital “bet” for his own political destiny, but also for France and the EU. In April he will seek a new presidential term against 10 other candidates, including 5 women. Mme Pecresse comes from the traditional republicans, who says that shee is “2/3 Thatcher and 1/3 Merkel”; in the far right camp, besides Marine Le Pen is also Eric Zemmour, both want at all costs the Elisee! In June there will be the parliamentary elections, equally important. Meawhile, even greater and harder are the international challenges; starting with Omicron that has swept over France and the continent; the serious crisis with Russia has become utterly threatening for the EU and NATO; the situation in Belarus, Middle East, asylym and emigration, the EU reform and enlargement toward Western Balkans and others are crying out for solution. Hence, with this this “bet”, Macron has raised very high his national, european and geo-political stakes! We wish good luch to him!
2.“ Only belonging?” This disquitening question arises once one reads the the program and priorities of the French EU Presicency on Western Balkans. The logo of this third priority is “ Belonging” to the EU. But only that, without clear things, dates and negotiations for Albania and Northern Macedonia. True, a EU Conference on WB is scheduled for June; yet, there will only be the “ clarification” of the state of things. This hides the French trick and “ hare”; since in the recent years, Macron has made Enlargement more difficult; moreover, if he wins in April, he is expected to continue with his idea of rebuilding the EU, this ime with “ two speeds or three circles”, with WB in its periphery. Nonetheless, let us hope for the best, since it is common knowledge that enlargement is not any more a “ sexy” topic in Europe; with it almost every EU state only loses points, votes and momentum.
- No euphoria, please! It goes beyond doubt that Albania’s election as non – permanent member of the UN Security Council ( 2022 – 2023) is a notable diplomatic achievement. We shall sit in the round table with the world 15 ”big shots”. Our word will be heard more, we shall learn and contribute a lot more to the settlement of crisis and conflicts worldwide and others. But humbly, without euphoria, please! Because one knows our real geopolitical weight, the smallest as compared to 9 others ( India, Brasil, Mexico, Irland, Norway, EBA, Kenya, Ghana, Gaboni) Above all, there are the 5 big powers who have the last word. Certainly, in cooperation with our major partners we can do something, especialy regarding Kosovo. But nothing more in geopolitical terms. No effect on our domestic policy, in the social and economic problems and the EU integration. Because “ the evil” is inside us and not abroad. Besides, our election in the UN highest forum is a belated routine, since almost no state has remained without being there. Moreover, Serbia and Northen Macedonia have had for one year the post of the President of the UN General Assembly!
4.Security from Russia and with Russia! This is the conclusion after the diplomatic talks last week between senior US, Russian and European officials in Geneve, Brussels and Vienna. Albeit the results, they have to continue, in an effort to de-escalate the situation. All parties involved should be praised for their readiness to proceed with diplomatic talks and demarshes instead of military escalation. Actually, it is clear that both Russia and China do not have any intention to change their attitudes and claims. They have openly expressed them and with already known concrete strategies and initiatives. Together they want to restore the security architecture before the 90. True, in the sphere of international relations, Russia may not be that defining; yet, as to security in Europe, this is absolutely the case. Any under- evaluation of this fact by the West would have incalculable effects, just as the further Russian military escalation.
Under these circumstances, the need may arise to safeguard the european security through revising the “ confidence building measures” under the Helsinki Final Act( 1975) and Paris Charter( 1990). However, leaving empty rhetorics aside, security from Russia can be guaranteed only through dialogue and cooperation with Russia. This is why, as many politicians and experts and recently the EU Foreign Ministers agreed in their meeting on 10 January, the best ” compass strategy” with Russia would be “ diplomatic dialogue and military deterrence” Otherwise, the sanctions, even the hardest cannot have tangible results. They would mostly affect the simple folks, where the nationalist leaders would use them as a “ munition” to strengthen their grip to power.
- Much Erdoganism, little Europianism! The visit by President Erdogan yesterday in Tirana with all the highest state honours was normal and out of reciprocity with the protocole reserved to PM Rama last year in Ankara. Turkey is a strong partner in NATO and in other international organizations, regional initiatives and Albania’s staunch. As to Erdoganism, it has been present in Albania in the last 20 years. The problem here is that it should not overshadow our major strategic objective – Euro-Atlatic integration, i.e. Europianism. This one should prevail over relations with all other coutries. But PM Rama equalized them by stating “ we are neither with Turkey nor with the EU, but with albanians” In fact, Rama spared no praise and compliment for Erdogan and Turkey, but was not so friendly towards the EU, which he ranked after together with the USA; the contrary should have been the case; both the USA& EU have given an immense support in the last 30 years, above for democracy, which was not mentioned at all and even in the pandemics; the EU has granted 3,3 billion Euro, apart from hundreds of millions for the Earthquake of 26 November, 30 billion Euro for investment and others for the region. So, the USA and Europianism comes first, then the others.
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