REAL POLITIK NO. 80
15 NOVEMBER – 22 DECEMBER 2024
With “ flash” comments on the 5 major events in only 1000 words by the well-known analyst,
DR. JORGJI KOTE
Grand Master in Diplomacy
1.Brazilian diplomatic samba which emanates from the emblematic Brazilian dance was dispayed on 19 – 20 November in Rio de Janeiro during the Summit of the 20 most developed states; a very important one since it accounts for 2/3 of the world population, 80 pwr cent of its GDP and 75 per cent of its trade. It is a telling fact that this Summit was held in Brazil with nearly 215 Million inhabitants, the largest economic power in the region. Whose foregin policy is summed up in the slogan “We can be in good terms with all“ and it refers exactly to the famous Brazilian dance, the cultural symbol and landmark in world. It was also an acid test for the leadership capacities of its President, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a year after his comeback to power and modern diplomacy.
G 20 reached a minimum consensus on the Russian war in Ukraine, with general phrases like ” the pain, sufferings and negative impact of the war for the food and energy security“ and that “ G 20 supports all initiatives for a just and lasting peace”. Likewise, with regard to the Middle East, nothing was said about Hamas, only calls to « support the US proposal for a cease – fire in Gaza and to set the hostages free. A minimum consensus was also the one on the climate crises. Without any concrete result, except for billions of dollars available. And for banning the fossil fuels, the sumit was suffice with the phrase “to ban all inefficient subventions with fossil fuels” However, Brazil, as the G 20 chair in office and its President Lula benefited the consensus of all G 20 leaders for the two most important points for its diplomacy: first, in its statement it is mentioned the agreement on “ establishing a global alliance against poverty and hunger” In concrete terms, they set the target that until 2030, 500 millions of folks in the Global South would avoid poverty through social aids, funds and other means. The nxet remarkable achievement, althoguh not a complete one for President Lula was the adoption in principle of his proposal on setting a duty over 2800 super rich persons, although without any concrete figure. Accordingly, every year an amount of 250 Billion Euro would be gained each year, which would again be used to fight agaist poverty, hunger and other social aspects.
2. All in and for Kyev but!….During this difficult period, there is no single Western leader who has not visited Kyev and meet with Ukrainian President Zelenski. With messages of support, economic aids and military, very necessary now that the war is entering is fourth year. The German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the opposition leader Friedrich Merz, whereas the President of the EU Council Antonio Costa and the Foreign Policy Chief, Kaja Kallas started their first working day there in Kyev instead of Brussels. But this time, due to the bad situation in Ukraine, in the battle front and the unpredictability of its duration, the highlight in these meetings was peace, ceasefire, diplomatic solution with various alternatives. Now President Zelenski does not exclude peace even by giving up parts of its occupied territory, but provided that that it joins NATO. However, this is an unacceptable condition for Russia, which thanks to the advantages in the battle front is demanding more in the diplomatic table.
3. A beautiful political postcard! The reopening of theemblematic Cathedral “Notre Dame” in Paris on 7 December was the greatest cultural event for France and western civilization by and large. The solemn ceremony was a golden opportunity for President Macron, his image and intention to warm up the frustrated french spirit. After the government of Michel Barnier fell down and many question marks on the French political future, the challenges and even a fear that France may become ingovernable. To this end did also serve the presence of the US President elect Trump and 47 other world leaders. It was a fortunate opportunity for President Macron to become also a reliable mediator between the EU and USA and a protagonist of new positive developments related to a possible lasting peace with Russia, organizing also a triletaral meeting with Trump and Zelenski.
4. Damascu’s winners and losers! The fall of the cruel 54 year old Assad regime on 8 December continues to be commented widely as a great geopolitical event with several ambiguities and predictions on its future and the entire region. Undoubtedly, apart from rebel forces, its greatest winner is Turkey and President Erdogan, the supporter of the opposition rebel regime. The greatest loser is Russia and Putin, the largest Assad supporter. The next major loser is Iran and its geopolitics, as well as Hamas, Hejzbullah and Futhi, ” its reserve armies” as they are known. Beneficiaries are also the EU and USA, peace, security and stability in the region; now there are all challenges and opportunities to unfold another effective and peace – searching policy in this explosive region.
5. Negotiations, ok, but caution please! On 17 December were opened in Brussels the negotiations for the 6th cluster of chapters on foreign policy and relation with the EU. It is another achievement following the opening of the first cluster on 15 October in Luxembourg. From the practical and psychological aspect this news serves as a new bonus to reach the target Albania in the EU in 2030. Moreover that this is the easiest cluster, since we have aligned our foreign policy with that of the EU. We have some problems with foreign trade, but it is widely believed that this cluster would be closed soon.
Meanwhile, there remain to be opened four other clusters, perhaps within next yar. Thus, there remain two years to finish the negotiations, i.e. in 2027, since it takes at least 2 years for the ratification of the final Treaty, so that the process could end in 2030.
Moreover, “ to say smth and to do it is a whole sea between” as they say. There are many problems especially with clusters on agriculture, internal market, competition, environment, with many obstacles that would take time. So, instead of promises and prophecies, let us set back at work and just do things properly and on time.
© 2024 Argumentum
