REAL POLITIK FLASH NO. 73
2 – 16 JULY 2024
With “ flash” comments on the 4 major events in only 1000 words by the well-known analyst,
DR. JORGJI KOTE
Grand Master in Diplomacy
1.A British historic change occurred after parliamentary elections on 4 July when the Labour Party of Kair Starmer came in power after 14 years. With an owerwhelming victory, causing to Conservative Party the biggest blow in its long history. In the House of Commons with 650 seats, the Labour won 410, whereas the Torys only 119 seats.
The major cause behind are economic hardships, a far cry from the glamorous Brexit promise. Thus, economy fell over 4 per cent. The pledge for weekly benefits of 445 million Euro for the health was not kept and the British health system went from bad to worse.
There are several other effects in education, culture, science, employment, youth programs and others.
Although 5 Prime Ministers left in 10 years, again with no result, but as we say “ only kind words but stones in a bag”. This is why they did not utter a word on BREXIT, for “ in the house of the hanged, the riope is not mentioned”.
However, the good news is that the new government will pursue the same foreign policy, renewing and strengthening cooperation with the EU.
2. France ungovernable?
This is the big question and fear after the disappointing results of the early parliamentary elections in France on 7 July; although “ The National Rally” of Marine Le Pen not only did no ensure the absolute majority to form a government, but it ranked third with 143 seats. The winner, although again not with an absolute majority was “ The New Populor Front” with 182 seats, followed by the Maronist Alliance “ Together” with 145 vende.
Now the tremendous challenge is that the new governmental coalition should come from an alliance of socialists, the greens, republicans and the centrists of Macron, a very hard job. This is the first time in the last 80 years in France!
Although the numbers both for the “ New Popular Front” and “Together” are sufficient, yet, the mission seems very difficult, not to say impossible. Because the New Popular Front was established simply and only to defeat the National Rally, not more than that. But, to make a government with them is the same as to make “ a ranch with hares”. Because inside them, the socilasts and the greens are reluctant to work with the far left of Melenchon and with Macron. The latter does also not want a coalition with the socialists and the far left. The communists of Melenchon are anti-german, anti – EU, anti-NATO, anti-semitist and with reservations for supporting Ukraine.
As far as a grand coalition is concerned, this practice is totally unknown in France, unlike in Germany and in Austria where it is tradition.
Having a minority government would embark France in unknown and unsafe paths. The same applies to a possible Caretaker/Expert’s goveernment which would be fraught with many difficulties during its operation and could as well force the President of the Republic within a year in the latest the latest, under the French law to dissolve his Parliament and call early elections wih other uncertainties.
The other concern is that all these versions and possible failures would serve as “ammunition” for the far right and far left to use them during the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, both regular or even early ones.
As it can be very clearly seen, true on 7 July the biggest evil was averted, yet the threat from the far right and far left extremism and populism is active and visible.
Nonetheless, there are hopes and work has began so that with different concessions and compromises, the center left and right parties with macronists that already have the necessary numbers to achieve a consensus and have a new sustainable government soon in place. Otherwise, France will enter into the spiral of crises with negative effects throughout Europe. In any case, after 7 July, the role of France and President Macron in international affairs has fallen drastically.
3. An historik memory and breakthrough was the Jubilee NATO Summit in Uashington from 9 – 11 July, where it was established 75 years ago. A memory for achievements in safeguarding peace, stability and democracy in all the 32 member states. But also of the difficulties and several challenges today, which cannot be compared with those of the past. The russian aggression against Ukraine, the serious threats from China, North Korea, Iran, the state of play in Middle East and the fragile situation in Western Balkans. The historic breakthrough was confirmed with the intensified support for Ukraine with a package of aids of 40 Billion Dollars in 2025, war planes F-16, establishment of a Cyber Defence Center, stationing in Germany long range missiles, expanding he basis in Wiesbaden for taining Ukrainian soldiers and the perspective of Ukrainian’s accession to NATO when all conditions are fulfilled. This is why this jubilee Summit was both historic recall and change; not only for Ukraine, but to safeguard peace, prosperity and democracy in the Euro-Atlantic space by and large.
4. Beleri from prisoner to MEP in Brussels!
Yes, Fredi Beleri left the prison in Fieri on 15 July and this week is in Strasbourg as a Member of EU Parliament ( MEP). There are many question marks and debates, but the EU has made it clear in its laws and regulations. As long as a person is elected directly from the people, as Beleri in Greece with 240.000 ballots, he/she enjoyes substantial juridical and parliamentary immunity and is released from all previous charges and punishmens. The people is the best judge. This has occurred also during the last two years with the Polish MEP Karpinci, who after serving 8 months in prison for corrupsion of 1 million Euro reentered the EU Parliament in November 2023. Likewise, a month ago, the Italian left activist, Ilaria Salis was realeased from house arrest in Budapest the next day she was elected MEP with 130.000 votes. She was accused for an alleged assault against a neo-Nazis. True, there are discussions and reservations which the EU recognizes and strives for the better; however, this is the best alternative to protect not simply the dignity of a person, but the integrity of the whole EU Parliament, the strongest moral tribune in the world. Therefore, the permission for Mr. Beleri was correct and a good will gesture.
© 2024 Argumentum
