REAL POLITIK NO. 102
17 – 31 MARCH 2026
Coments ” flash” on the three major diplomatic events with only 1.000 words by the well-known analist, Grand master in Diplomacy
DR. JORGJI KOTE
1.EU 2027 or 2037?! As we have warned before, the EU Council and Foreign Ministers in their meeting on 16 – 17& 20 March in Brussels did not refer to the closure of the first cluster of negotiations, which was opened since October 2024. Some countries as Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands have reservations, especially after the Assembly refused to approve the SPAK demand to arrest Belinda Balluku. Moreover, there is no deadline when it may occur, when from the remaining 24 months, the first three passed with nothing in our basket. But since we cannot open any of the six clusters and when their opening took 16 months, the big question is whether we can finish them all in only 20 months! However, let us wish and hope to conclude the first cluster within this first half and avoid any other postponment; otherwise we shall lose the ‘Train EU 2030’ and we shall keep waiting for EU 2040!
2. Even half membership failed! This can be said for the idea launched by Rama – Vuçiç in their editorial on 28 feruary in the German daily “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung“. The half or economic membership only has had no echo at all; no one even uttered a word during the Foreign Ministers and Council meetings in 16 – 17 and 20 March in Brussels. Even worse, the first objection and critical remarks have appeared in the recent days. First, the German top leaders and then the EU Comissioner, Marta Kos. The latter, although she is recognized to be in good terms with both Prime Ministers stated very clearly although with a soft diplomatic language that Rama and Vuçiç do not have a clear idea what a lot of work and reforms it needs even to join Schengen and the EU Common market. It does necessarily require the same level of merits and vital reforms with the full or true membership; because joining the EU is not simply a mater of market, trade and economy but above all of politics and the rule of law. Therefore, it is much better to step up our efforts for for a full and not half EU membership; otherwise, even the latter would have no chance. True, geopolitics is very helpful; yet, our success story with reforms is decisive, the fight against corruption and the impunity of senior officials. Now, since this semi membership was received with welvet shoes from Germany and the EU Commission, one can imagine the opposition and objectgins from most of the 26 Member Sattes and the EU Parliament! Make no mistake, half EU membership is not a genuine and viable alternative, but a spoiled soup which is hard to eat it!
3.No exit strategy! A month after the US launched their military strike against Iran, the hopes and expectations for a rapid war and victory turned to be illusion. As he stated recently, the former US Defgence Minister, Leon Paletta, “ the blitz war and victory failed”. This happened since apart from the glamorous military gains, as the German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius stated on 25 March, the Trump Administration started this war without a plan, without targets and objectives, without consultations with the European partners and even worse without an exit strategy. But even military successes are not sufficient to lead to a political victory “translated” in sustainable peace, security and stability in an explosive region with large impact on security and world economy.
President Trump neglected the opinion of his European friends, an unprecedented case, producing new rifts and splits with them. Besides, he did not predict and did not realize Iran’s reaction and resistance. The next American mistake was to imagine the military attack as a classic warfare which would be won easily, quickly and without many costs But, while Trump is used to shows and telerealities, he fails to understaqnd the hard the internal and very intricate reality in Teheran and in the region. Given all these mistakes, he did not provide answers to the major geopolitical question: what comes next?
Americans were also wrong to think that by assassinating Chamenei and over 200 other senior leaders, Teheran would surrender, underestimating the fact that during the last 47 years it has established a multi-layered state authority, so that it would function even in the most difficult conditions, which is actualy the case.
The nex perhaps greater US mistake was the underestimation of the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz and its blocking from Iran; eventhough the data and suggestions from competent US agencies were not missing, but they were ignored. Now Hormuz shall decide the fate of this war, the future landscape in the region and worldwide, with major political effects in Washington as well.
Besides, President Trump faces three major and serious challenges for his political destiny. First, the considerable decline of his popularity; over 60 per cent of Americans disagree with his performance especially in the field of economy. This is also reflected in the ongoing decline of the indicators from February – March with the increase of inflation, cost of living and prices especially that of petrol. Likewise, his too exceptional focus on foreign aspects and wars is another point of public disaccord.
This decline of his popularity is also occurring within his MAGA with open and hidden rifts and splits, including even his Vice President, J.D. Vance and others. WBut this is occurring only 7 months before the defining Mid- Term elections for the US Congresss. But, as Jesse Kelly, a conservative moderator of the US radio says “if these figures continue to be in the present levels, then these mid-term elections wil be a massacre for us”!
This is why the results of this vital mid-term elections make the third great “ headache” for Trump whereby the possible US land intervetion in Iran would be decisive for his political survival and the politics in Washington by and large.
Therefore, these three major remaining alternatives – the occupation of the strategic Kharg island and the invasion with land troops to liberate the Strait of Hormuz and within Iran, if the USA fail or the war is prolonged is fraught with unforseeable effects for the USA, the situation in the region and they could lead to even more severe crisis in the world economy.
© 2026 Argumentum
