Dr. J. Scott Younger,
No end in sight! The Israeli PM persuaded the US President to join him in attacking Iran causing much damage and killing Ayatollah Khamenie, Iran’s Supreme Leader, and several of the leadership of the Islamic republic. Trump was also persuaded that such a full-scale attack could lead to victory in a comparatively short time. This event started on 28th February and has shown that Netanyahu’s prognostication of a short war was wrong, possibly he knew that but just had to get Trump’s commitment and the war restarted. He has got his wish, and now he has to prolong it for his own reasons; wanted for war crimes by the International Court in Holland and also facing corruption in Israel.
After ‘raining’ much damage from the skies, which Trump reminds us about periodically, he also came to see that the war was going to last longer than Netanyahu had is indicated. He decided to call a ceasefire, which was welcomed, to exercise diplomacy once again. Perhaps it was a way to admit he did not know what the end game would be! The Pakistan government offered their services, and a high-level delegation from each of the protagonists flew to Islamabad and joined three party talks hosted by the Pakistan government. V-P Vance led the US party.
It was clear early in the discussions that the positions of the US and Iran were far apart, as they were prior to the war. Trump has taken a stand on ‘no nuclear’ in any form for the Iran regime and this is a major sticking point and remains on the table. Stalemate!
Going back to the start of the war, this was a joint effort by the US and Israelis with no inputs from NATO (Europe, UK, in particuIar). However, it did not stop Trump complaining that he was getting no backing from his allies, conveniently forgetting that he had not consulted them beforehand. The European position is clear, they do not agree with the US action.
Meanwhile, the ceasefire, which was supposed to apply to all participants in the fighting, was not taken on board by the IDF (Israeli defence force) who said it did not apply to them and continued to fight Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon. Trump had asked the Israelis to withhold their hand, but as it would seem there was some doubt that the peace initiative following on from the ceasefire was progressing, the IDF have restarted and no one has asked them to desist.
Trump proclaims that the Iranians are close to making a peace deal. This, however, is not corroborated by the Iranian side, nor by the Europeans or much of the world, which would mean that there is still a long way to go to achieve a satisfactory outcome.
In the past there has been a growing body of senior people who played a distinctive part in Trump’s previous administration. They all draw attention to his narcissum, his short attention span and his limited knowledge of the world. One even hints at the start of dementia, but the most damning verdict is one where a former member of the last administration describes him as ‘the worst president in US history’. ‘Fake news’ I hear someone say!
A significant number of members of congress and of the senate are growing concerned at developments, and are watching carefully how the next few months play out, in the lead up to the mid-term elections. The president’s standing among the American electorate has been diminishing and such pointers must be a cause for concern among the current administration, who must be wondering whether they should still give their support or look for a suitable time to resign.
His proposal to the Iranians was unlikely to be accepted as presented and so it has been shown. Rather than a ‘’take it or leave it’’ proposal, as put forward by the US, Iran should have been allowed to agree certain vital elements, such as opening up the straits of Hormuz, essential for many world economies. The Iranians said they were willing to do this, and would have continued discussion on the disputed items, i.e. nuclear. However, what next?
Trump’s conditions are unachievable and the only response he is offering is a return to war. He has put himself, or rather allowed the Israeli PM to lead him into a very difficult position. The American public are not happy about the war and Trump is aware of this, particularly with the mid-term elections approaching. The main issue concerns Iran’s nuclear capability of which much fuss is being made, despite several other countries having similar capabilities.
Trump in Beijing: Iran, Stalemate, and the Search for an Exit Strategy
At this time, 13th May, Trump has flown to China to meet with President Xi Jinping on a scheduled basis. While each had another agenda to follow, Trump was expected to ask for assistance in dealing with Iran, since China obtains much of Iran’s petroleum products. It is partly unknown how much each country wants or needs from the other except some discussion centred on advanced developments in digital products. Come what may, it was unlikely that the US president got as much as he wanted from these bilateral talks. He has boasted that he has Iran in a tight spot, but Iran is demonstrating firm resistance. Will Trump ‘chicken out’?
The next few days will reveal all, but the US president does not look as if he will get a solution that will be satisfactory to his aims, and going to war on the 28th February has not given him the success he sought. The American public will assess the past few months as largely a waste of time and effort.
On the other hand, Netanyahu will be happy that the war is not over and the longer it may continue the more he can reduce Hezbollah’s, Iran’s surrogate, strength and the longer he may feel that Israel may need him. Lebanon is pleading with the US government to draw the Israelis in, but nothing is happening yet, the main focus of the American government is on Iran.
No resolution or signs of any. Will we see some faction of the US say ‘enough is enough and stop’. More likely that we shall have to wait the few months until the mid-term elections. Meantime, the people of Gaza and the West bank, despite what the UN and Europeans may feel and say, will still feel the pain inflicted by the IDF. What has happened to Trump’s Peace initiative for the Gazan people for which he felt he deserved the Nobel Peace prize, among other such initiatives.
/Argumentum.al
