Realpolitik “ flash” No. 17
1 – 15 FEBRUARY 2022
EXCLUSIVELY at ARGUMENTUM, the renowned diplomat& analyst, “ dots the i’s and crosses the t’s” on 3 major events in only 1000 words
Dr. JORGJI KOTE
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- Dialogue Pristina – Belgrade in a standstill even after Lajcak and Escobar were there for five days in the early month to push it on; however, nothing concrete, only words, even they just to “ wash up the mouth”; many deficiencies, problems and hurdles. Nothing besides predictions, mostly abusive. Even worse, the dialogue still lacks the necessary spirit, climate and ground. Instead of getting closer, Pristine and Belgrade are gong further away from one another. This is mainly due to Serbia, which keeps on its own unconstructive course, it admits to speak with Pristine only about “Open Balkans”, considering as Taboo all other items and, in particular, Kosovo’s recognition, which Vuçiç reconfirmed on 12 February.
Therefore, President Biden in his second letter addressed to President Vuçiç told him bluntly that the road to Brussels passes necessarily through the quickest possible recognition of Kosovo. Although very late, finally the USA and the EU see that this recognition, but NOW and not at the end of the process is the key to the success of the dialogue after 11 years of neotiations at all levels. Unfortunately, the EU Special Envoy Lajçak has not yet fored the proper conviction and creditibility as unilateral mediator, moreover that he comes from Slovakia that continues not to recognize Kosovo. Moreover, even when things are crystally clear that the problem lies in Serbia, he addresses the two sides, failing to lay the finger on the sinner. Now, it is high time “to call a spade a spade” The dialogue cannot go out of this standstill, on the opposite, it can go from bad to worse and turn into a “ coma”. But we believe that the USA and the EU with their experienced senior diplomats will take the situation into their own hands, now not simply as facilitators but practically as responsible managers; by preparing after consultations the relevant versions and hand them over to both sides under the principle “ take it or leave it” Thereafter, the relevant accuracies and improvements can be made. Otherwise, the dialogue will lose its sense and diretion and end up in the greek calendas, as another testimony of failure, but this time not only of the EU but USA as well.
- Shuttle Diplomacy at stake! Although the current crises between Russia, Ukaine and the West, the largest of the last 30 years has not caught the West unaware, it remains threatening due to the immense Russian military presence and pressure. Therefore, the major Western states started without delay and in unison the so-called « the crisis or preventive diplomacy » with its climax this month with the « shuttle and telephone diplomacy ». Biden, Macron, Scholz, Johnson, Stoltenberg and thers have met and travelled consecutively, both physically and virtually in Washington, Moscow, Kiev, Paris, Berlin, Brussels, London and elswhere.
This was also the occasion to revive the Agreement of NORMANDIE among Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine 2015 ; albeit the scepticism and problems with its interpretation, it is a good basis for peace talks.
Likewise, afer 10 years, although Poland had considered it as irrelevant, it joined France and Germany in the context of the » Weimar Triangle » in Berlin, in the meering among their Presidents on 9 February ; just as Chancellor Scholz met on 10 Febrary with his counterparts of the three Baltic states.
Eventhough the West is seeking peace, it has made it clear that this would be achieved not at any price. This is why this active diplomacy is associated with warnings for the toughest economic sanctions in cace of agression against Ukraine and the Russian military deterrment, through increasing the military presence of USA and its allied troops in Europe.
The imediate objective of the Western preventive diplomacy is to avoid the further escalation of the conflict and any military action, to have even a temporary ceasefire and thus provide the necessary space and time for other diplomatic steps. Because, even when the first target is met, it comes the next and a more long term one – review of Russian demands related to the practically the possibility of a new achiteture of european security, although in fact it hides the goal for a new multipolar world order.
- A festive parade in Washington was the meeting between the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken and PM Rama on 15 February. At least while referring to the media statements by both interlocutors. This is understandable since their meeting took place on the eve of the Centenary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, following the US renewed gratitude for our hospitaliy in sheltering 2000 afghans, Albania’s election as Non-Permanent Member of the UN Security Council, the relevant ceremony a day before in New York, the co-penship with USA in the « Glass Palace » and other messages of friendship and cooperation, particularly in the political and military field. Although there was also mention of reforms, we did not hear any signal or sign even between the lines, and not any observation, suggestion or why not a critical remark, certainly with the diplomatic dressing and language on some unpleasant « sins » and affairs during the current almost 9 year old government on the rule of law, democracy and on. Moreover, one did not hear them being mentioned at all. Eventhough the present US Administration has a ranked democracy in its « top » priorities. Everything was handled and said with a sweet – coated tongue ; this is why this meeting seemed to be like a courtesy visit; when even the smallest critical gesture or signal by our greatest ally would not spoil the taste of the « US-Albanian honey » ; on the opposite, it would make it more genuine and « bio ». Therefore, this meeting, important as it was, did not have the previous public echo, and it was much more a festive bilateral parade in Washington. We wish we were wrong ; besides, in such meetings, very little is disclosed for the public, even less criticial accents and notes. But, from my diplomatic experience and presence in such events, the latter are said when interlocutors meet « face to face » and disclosed much later.
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