Unrestrained Drop of Albania’s Population Hitting Lowest Number in 2031

Albania’s population was registered to be 0.6% lower at the beginning of 2021 as compared to January 1, 2020 when it was 2,845,955 inhabitants on January 1, 2020 with an estimation that it would drop to 2,745,996 inhabitants in 2031, according to data released by INSTAT on Friday.
The population of the counties in 2020 has declined in most of them, reflecting the strong demographic problems with declining birth rates, high immigration and an aging population.
Calculations on January 1, 2021 show that only two counties of Albania marked an increase in population, compared to a year ago, while the other ten counties marked a decrease in population. The largest increase was recorded in Tirana (+ 0.7%), followed by Durrës (+ 0.5%).
In contrast, the largest population declines were recorded in Gjirokastra (-2.3%), Berat (-2.1%) and Dibra (-1.9%) counties.
The region with the highest youth dependency ratio is Kukes (33.1%), which also results as the region with the highest elderly dependency ratio (24.9%) together with the Lezha region, northern Albania.
The population in number marked the largest decline in Berat with a decrease of 2,500 people, while the Capital Tirana had a higher increase with about 6,000 people in 2021.
The population of the country as a whole at the beginning of 2021 was 0.6% lower than on January 1, 2020. Demographic developments were influenced by different factors last year. The Covid-19 pandemic increased mortality rate during the year, while immigration dropped due to pandemic restrictions. During 2020, 27,605 people lost their lives, marking an increase of 25.8%, compared to a year ago.
During the last year, all regions of the country marked an increase in the number of deaths compared to 2019. The lowest number of deaths is recorded in the region of Kukes, with 627 deaths, while the highest number was registered in the region of Tirana with 7,129 deaths in 2020. The highest increase in the percentage of deaths during 2020 compared to 2019 was evidenced in the region of Lezha with 34.2%. In the meantime it is said by INSTAT that the population of Albania in 2031, according to updated projections (2019-2031), is estimated to be 2,745,996 inhabitants. This number is about 36,000 inhabitants fewer as compared to the number of population in the Population Projections 2011 – 2031. The change in this number is a direct consequence of lower fertility rates and the gender distribution of emigrants which does not correspond to the Hypothesis projections of Population 2011 – 2031.
But three indirect measurements made by the Institute of Statistics suggest that the country’s population has shrunk by 350-600,000 people over the last decade.
While a study by the Institute for International Studies in Vienna showed that 500,000 people have emigrated from Albania to Europe. The figure is calculated on the basis of application permits of Albania’s citizens for residence in the European countries from 2010-2020. /argumentum.al