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    Azerbaijan dismisses claims of involvement in Israel-Iran conflict

    Elite Purges: Internal Conflict or External Design?

    Trump’s Threat of U.S. Intervention in Iran Exposes Roots of Critics’ Fears

    Crisis-Born, Purpose-Seeking: Can the EPC Define Europe’s Strategic Future?

    Serbia’s Request to the ICJ Turned Resolution 1244 into a Closed Chapter and Kosovo’s Independence into an Internationally Recognized Reality

    Unpredictable world

    Promoting Arab Culture and Language in the Framework of Cultural Diversity and Dialogue.

    ‘A Tragic Circus’: Albanian PD Figures Lash Out After LaCivita-Backed Campaign Collapses

    Erosion of Liberal Democracy in Europe Complicates Canada’s Search for Like-Minded Allies

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    Exclusive: “Even After Tito – Tito”/ Ambassador Zlatko Kramarić on Authoritarian Legacies and Democracy’s Future in the Balkans

    The Conclusion of the Diplomatic Mission / Ambassador Dancho Markovski: Strengthening Albania-North Macedonia Relations for a Shared European Future

    A Century of Diplomatic Relations Between Albania and Russia: Exclusive Interview with the Russian Ambassador to Albania, H.E. Alexey Zaytsev

    Exclusive/ The chairman of the Freedom Party, Ilir Meta: “The will of the citizens will triumph in Albania, as it did in North Macedonia”

    Exclusive/ The Russian Ambassador to Albania Mr. Mikhail Afanasiev: Russia only aims to end that war started by the West in Ukraine

    Exclusive/ Skopje’s top diplomat to Tirana, Dancho Markovski: OSCE Chairmanship a Project of National Importance for North Macedonia

    Exclusive interview of Croatian Ambassador Zlatko Kramaric: ‘There is progress in Croatian-Albanian relations, but it is still not enough’  

    The first anniversary of the appointment as Archbishop at the head of the Catholic Church/ Mons. Arjan Dodaj: Only God can be the author of our walk!

    Azerbaijan’s Ambassador Anar Huseynov: President Aliyev’s visit to Albania opened a new page in our relations through the specific accords reached

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    Summit G 6+1! The historic Summit and Trump show! Zelensky loses 0:2! Winners and losers of the 12 day war!

    Chancellor Merz passed “the exam”! Political stupidity! 5 per cent or study Russian! The Firing East!      

    A top phone call as disappointment! Exit from Brexit! Germany at the helm! End this political shame up!

    That’s it! The quartet of hope! Shame on Kosovo! The Summit of a Community without Identity!

    Only praises and prolises for Meloni! Facts versus untruths! Immediate ceasefire and genuine peace, no deal for new occupation! Back after 60 years !

    US nuclear tariff bomb!! Europa fires back! NATO ok, but with or without Article 5? Kallas urges reforms!

    Europe riarmed! Germany’s epochal shift! Spoiled soup! EU Commissioner Kos demands reforms!

    Europe tightens the ranks! The Euro-Atlantic Alliance in danger! USA-1945!! A true Peace, not new occupation!

    WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 20: President Donald Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office on January 20, 2025 in Washington, DC.  Trump takes office for his second term as the 47th president of the United States. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

    The law of force over the force of law! Multilateral diplomacy is the victim! Euro-Atlantism in danger! Munchen split the West!

  • Current Events

    Why Iran with Nukes is a Danger – Just Look at Cuba in 1962

    When bridges divide more than rivers…

    Skopje Growth Plan Summit: Western Balkans Six Urged to Accelerate Reforms

    Summit G 6+1! The historic Summit and Trump show! Zelensky loses 0:2! Winners and losers of the 12 day war!

    The NATO Summit in 2027 will be held in Tirana.

    Exclusive: “Even After Tito – Tito”/ Ambassador Zlatko Kramarić on Authoritarian Legacies and Democracy’s Future in the Balkans

    Geneva meeting begins in bid to halt escalating Israel-Iran conflict

    From Donetsk to Northern Kosovo: Geopolitical Games with the Kosovo Precedent

    G7 leaders fail to reach ambitious joint agreements on key issues after Trump’s exit

  • Top News

    The NATO Summit in 2027 will be held in Tirana.

    NATO allies agree to allocate 5% of GDP to defense by 2035

    Reza Pahlavi: “This Is Our Berlin Wall Moment” — Exiled Prince Calls for Global Support as Iran Nears Regime Collapse

    Where does Donald Trump stand on the Israel-Iran conflict?

    Russia Proposes Second Round of Ukraine Peace Talks in Istanbul on June 2

    International leaders congratulate Prime Minister Rama after his victory in the parliamentary elections, securing a fourth term.

    Albania’s parliamentary elections competitive and well run but lacked level playing field, international observers say

    Top Ukrainian delegation arrives in Paris for talks with Western officials

    Marta Kos: Albania Making Rapid Progress Toward EU Integration

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  • Home
  • OP/ED

    Azerbaijan dismisses claims of involvement in Israel-Iran conflict

    Elite Purges: Internal Conflict or External Design?

    Trump’s Threat of U.S. Intervention in Iran Exposes Roots of Critics’ Fears

    Crisis-Born, Purpose-Seeking: Can the EPC Define Europe’s Strategic Future?

    Serbia’s Request to the ICJ Turned Resolution 1244 into a Closed Chapter and Kosovo’s Independence into an Internationally Recognized Reality

    Unpredictable world

    Promoting Arab Culture and Language in the Framework of Cultural Diversity and Dialogue.

    ‘A Tragic Circus’: Albanian PD Figures Lash Out After LaCivita-Backed Campaign Collapses

    Erosion of Liberal Democracy in Europe Complicates Canada’s Search for Like-Minded Allies

  • Interview

    Exclusive: “Even After Tito – Tito”/ Ambassador Zlatko Kramarić on Authoritarian Legacies and Democracy’s Future in the Balkans

    The Conclusion of the Diplomatic Mission / Ambassador Dancho Markovski: Strengthening Albania-North Macedonia Relations for a Shared European Future

    A Century of Diplomatic Relations Between Albania and Russia: Exclusive Interview with the Russian Ambassador to Albania, H.E. Alexey Zaytsev

    Exclusive/ The chairman of the Freedom Party, Ilir Meta: “The will of the citizens will triumph in Albania, as it did in North Macedonia”

    Exclusive/ The Russian Ambassador to Albania Mr. Mikhail Afanasiev: Russia only aims to end that war started by the West in Ukraine

    Exclusive/ Skopje’s top diplomat to Tirana, Dancho Markovski: OSCE Chairmanship a Project of National Importance for North Macedonia

    Exclusive interview of Croatian Ambassador Zlatko Kramaric: ‘There is progress in Croatian-Albanian relations, but it is still not enough’  

    The first anniversary of the appointment as Archbishop at the head of the Catholic Church/ Mons. Arjan Dodaj: Only God can be the author of our walk!

    Azerbaijan’s Ambassador Anar Huseynov: President Aliyev’s visit to Albania opened a new page in our relations through the specific accords reached

  • Realpolitik

    Summit G 6+1! The historic Summit and Trump show! Zelensky loses 0:2! Winners and losers of the 12 day war!

    Chancellor Merz passed “the exam”! Political stupidity! 5 per cent or study Russian! The Firing East!      

    A top phone call as disappointment! Exit from Brexit! Germany at the helm! End this political shame up!

    That’s it! The quartet of hope! Shame on Kosovo! The Summit of a Community without Identity!

    Only praises and prolises for Meloni! Facts versus untruths! Immediate ceasefire and genuine peace, no deal for new occupation! Back after 60 years !

    US nuclear tariff bomb!! Europa fires back! NATO ok, but with or without Article 5? Kallas urges reforms!

    Europe riarmed! Germany’s epochal shift! Spoiled soup! EU Commissioner Kos demands reforms!

    Europe tightens the ranks! The Euro-Atlantic Alliance in danger! USA-1945!! A true Peace, not new occupation!

    WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 20: President Donald Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office on January 20, 2025 in Washington, DC.  Trump takes office for his second term as the 47th president of the United States. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

    The law of force over the force of law! Multilateral diplomacy is the victim! Euro-Atlantism in danger! Munchen split the West!

  • Current Events

    Why Iran with Nukes is a Danger – Just Look at Cuba in 1962

    When bridges divide more than rivers…

    Skopje Growth Plan Summit: Western Balkans Six Urged to Accelerate Reforms

    Summit G 6+1! The historic Summit and Trump show! Zelensky loses 0:2! Winners and losers of the 12 day war!

    The NATO Summit in 2027 will be held in Tirana.

    Exclusive: “Even After Tito – Tito”/ Ambassador Zlatko Kramarić on Authoritarian Legacies and Democracy’s Future in the Balkans

    Geneva meeting begins in bid to halt escalating Israel-Iran conflict

    From Donetsk to Northern Kosovo: Geopolitical Games with the Kosovo Precedent

    G7 leaders fail to reach ambitious joint agreements on key issues after Trump’s exit

  • Top News

    The NATO Summit in 2027 will be held in Tirana.

    NATO allies agree to allocate 5% of GDP to defense by 2035

    Reza Pahlavi: “This Is Our Berlin Wall Moment” — Exiled Prince Calls for Global Support as Iran Nears Regime Collapse

    Where does Donald Trump stand on the Israel-Iran conflict?

    Russia Proposes Second Round of Ukraine Peace Talks in Istanbul on June 2

    International leaders congratulate Prime Minister Rama after his victory in the parliamentary elections, securing a fourth term.

    Albania’s parliamentary elections competitive and well run but lacked level playing field, international observers say

    Top Ukrainian delegation arrives in Paris for talks with Western officials

    Marta Kos: Albania Making Rapid Progress Toward EU Integration

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Home ENGLISH

Turkey, Russia and the Libyan conundrum

18 January, 2020
in ENGLISH, English OP/ED
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By Guma El- Gamaty

Since the outbreak of the Libyan revolution in 2011, which saw the intervention of NATO countries and the toppling of Muammar Gaddafi‘s regime, international involvement in Libya has gradually escalated. Although some Western states took a step back in recent years, there has been growing intervention by other countries such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), France, Turkey, Russia and Egypt, which have all been looking to secure their own interests in the post-Gaddafi era.

The Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), which was formed in 2015 through a UN-brokered agreement approved by the Security Council, has struggled to establish control over the country. Although it is the only governing body which has been recognised by the United Nations, it has been undermined by foreign intervention. Formally, the GNA has been supported by the United States and the European Union, but its main backers in recent years have been Italy, Turkey and Qatar.

The UAE, Egypt and to a certain extent France and Russia have all been supporting renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar, who since 2014 has been trying to take power in Libya through military force. The military operation he launched in April 2019 to take over the capital Tripoli, has further complicated the situation.

The conflict has been dragging on for nine months and the dynamics of international involvement has been shifting rapidly with significant external factors coming into play.

Although Haftar pledged to take the Libyan capital quickly, he failed to do so and was forced to seek additional support from his allies. After a visit to Moscow last year, a few hundred Russian mercenaries, mostly from the private military company Wagner Group, were sent to aid his war effort. Over the past few months, their number increased to 1,500.

Earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted there are Russian fighters in Libya, but claimed they do not represent the state and are not paid by the Russian government.

In the face of another offensive on Tripoli, the GNA requested help from its backers and Turkey responded. In November, the two signed memorandums of understanding, allowing for maritime and military cooperation between both countries. In January, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the deployment of troops to Libya “to support the legitimate government and avoid a humanitarian tragedy”.

The Trump administration seems to be content with Turkey playing a leading role, which may be why the US has become less involved. Washington has had limited diplomatic engagements through the US ambassador to Libya as well as the deputy national security adviser for the Middle East and North Africa, Victoria Coates, who has held several meetings with both camps in the past three months.

The Turkish military entrance into the conflict is not likely to be met by an escalation of involvement from Egypt, although this would exacerbate the conflict if it were to happen. Some Egyptian analysts, while condemning the Turkish intervention in Libya, have indicated that it is unlikely for Egypt to face off with Turkey militarily.

Libya’s neighbour Algeria, which has just had a new president elected, has also become more vocal about getting involved in resolving the conflict, reiterating that the GNA is the legitimate government and that Tripoli is a red line. Algiers opposes Haftar’s campaign and is perceived as balancing off the Egyptian involvement.

The main European players, namely Italy and France, have had to take a backseat in the past year. Italy lost much of its credibility and influence in Libya after its recent failure to host talks between Haftar and the head of the GNA, Fayez al-Sarraj. On January 7, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte tried to organise a surprise meeting between Haftar and al-Sarraj in Rome, but the latter refused to attend.

Currently, Turkey and Russia seem to be trying to work together to resolve the conflict, as they have become the two key international players in Libya. The two managed to broker a ceasefire between the GNA and Haftar’s forces which came into effect on January 12.

The following day, al-Sarraj and Haftar met in Moscow to sign an official open-ended ceasefire agreement. The latter, however, decided to pull out of the talks.

Amid this uncertainty and persisting tensions, on January 19, a conference will be held in Berlin to attempt to move the peace process in Libya forward. It will be attended by the two warring sides, as well as representatives of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council as well as Italy, Turkey, Algeria, Egypt, the UAE and the Republic of Congo, which chairs the African Union‘s special commission on Libya.

Whether Italy and France can use the Berlin conference to seize back the initiative in the Libyan conflict from Turkey and Russia remains to be seen. For now, the shift in dynamics on the ground has established Ankara and Moscow as the main powerbrokers.

The Turkish military presence in Libya will mean that the GNA is in a much stronger position to survive the onslaught by Haftar. This is likely to cause Egypt and the UAE to review their strategy on Libya and they may abandon their hopes of imposing a military solution through Haftar.

The deal struck between Erdogan and Putin ultimately means that both sides in Libya will need to compromise and realise that there is no way for either side to achieve a victory through military means. This should hopefully hasten the end of the current conflict and pave the way for political dialogue to negotiate a long-term political solution in Libya.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

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