REALPOLITIK FLASH NO. 50
18 – 31 JULY 2023
Grand Master Dr. Jorgji KOTE « dots the « I’s» and crosses the “t’s » on 4 major diplomatic events in only 1000 words
1. A cold shower! This well-known phrase suits perfectly to the latest Report from the US State Department on the lamentable climate for foreign investments in Albania. In the sense that when you read them, you do not know where to start with the problems, hindrances and delays – widespread corruption in each social cell, in procurement, education, health, concessions, public administration, organized crime that has penetrated in the highest levels of central government, informal economy, frequent changes in the legal and fiscal system, slow rates in the judicial reform and many other democratic deficits. Hence, while reading them, it comes to mind the folk saying “ it was cold shower” Perhaps it was not a mere coincidence that even the marathone meeting of the government on 26/28 July took place in the Hotel “ Cold Water” in Tepelena. Yet, our government replies with empty rhetorics and not even with a press release! Worst of all, these grave concerns frighten not only foreign investors but each one in Albania, with incalculable effects up to escalating emigration.
2. Change the tune! The West should do that now to end the deadlock between Pristina and Belgrade. As we have prewarned, the situation there demands necessarily that USA and EU change their diplomatic tune and tactics. In more concrete terms, they should apply the Appeasement policy to Kosovo and Coercive diplomacy to Serbia and not the way round as until now! Only in this way one could hope for a quick turning point, otherwise things would go “from the frying pan into the fire”.
3. Partnership or vassalage?
On 27 – 28 July was held in Saint Petersburg the Russia – Africa Summit “ For peace, security an development” Its true geopolitical goal was to help Russia in its demarches for its international rehabilitation. And, in this respect, Africa offers chances and advantages in many vital areas.
Apart from the foreign aspect, doemestically, the Russian government intends to craft the public perception that the war in Ukraine has not damaged its international image and that it is not isolated. Moreover that Russia has maintained traditional cooperation with most of African states even during the Cold War period. Regarding their political position to Russia, many African states have not supported its aggression against Ukraine, but neither have they joined the West in imposing sanctions against Russia. Yet, they are being careful and self-restrained not to give the idea that they are on Russia side or evenless making deals with Moscow. African leaders are being cautious because in fact in many African countries there are scepticism and reservations towards Russia. Morever, through some of their actions they want to give the impression that they are aware of their own role, that they are not loyal to Moscow but neither do they mechanically do what the West says.
On the other hand, African countries do need a lot and are very dependant on Russia, especially for wheat, crude oil and its products, chemical products and machinery. Thus, 50 per cent of russian exports to african states are made of machinery, oil, chemical prioducts and food stuffs. During the last two years, the crude oil exports and natural gas went up 2,7 times. Meanwhile, African states import 282 milion tons grains annually, but still they lack 30 million tones.
In the Summit in Saint Petersburg, Presidenti Putin made many promises to help the African countries and strengthen partnershipwith them. Thus, he promised to provide them free of charge with 25 – 50.000 tonnes of wheat each year for the 6 poor states – Burkina Faso, Zimbabve, Mali, Somalia, Eritrea and the Central Africa Republic. He also promised to help them replace the missing wheat quantities from Ukraine. In the energy area, Russia promised the continuation of 30 projects in 16 African states. Likewise, to facilitate russian exports to Africa, Russia will build an industrial area in the Suezi Channel in Egypt and will end the works for the International Corridor of Transport North to South. In the field of education, it will give more scholarship to African students, apart from 35.000 who are already studying in Russia. Then, Russian unviersities will open branches in African states. Meanwhile, there are projects to increase the presence of Russian media in Africa, as for instance the opening of the TV studio RT, office of the News Agency TASS and others.
Nevertheless, the Russian impact in Africa is smaller that Moscow claims, especially concerning the deficient economic and trade balance sheet. Under the UN data, Rusia ranks the 18th largest investor in Africa, lagging much behind USA, Germany and China.
Moreover, even within this record, there is a disproportionate trade distribution; 70 per cent of the trade volume by Russia is done with only 4 states in Africa Algjeria, Egypt, Morocco and South Africa. In the Russia – Africa first Summit in Sotchi in 2019 it was envisaged a trade volume of 40 Billion US Dollars; but after 4 years it is three three times smaller or only 13 Billion US Dollars!
However, it is not hard to see that instead of the claimed partnership between Russia and African states,Russia intends to have more vassal countries in Africa, serving its the intended multipolarity to the Russian political appetite.
4. Euro-Atlantist Meloni! Yes, indeed, she that won a landsliding victory as leader of far right in Italy, known for her support to Rusia and China and reluctance to Euro-Atlantism has turned within a short period of time into a Euro-Atlantist. Italian Prime Minister, Mrs. Meloni has showed this vocation with her first visits to Brussels, Paris, Berlin and last week in Washington. All these in less than a year from her election as Prime Minister of Italy. This is very meaningful and important for the West, since Italy is one of the seven most industrialized states. Good and great news, especially afer the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the “ march” of extremist forces in some western states. As President Biden said in his meeting in the While House last weekwith her, one should not hear what she says but what she does”! We wish she goes on and does not disappoint her electors, so that they would “ show her the door out” in the upcoming elections or even before; as it has occurred with her predecessors who have had a short political life.
© 2023 Argumentum
